Tesla Reports Fewer Autopilot Accidents in Q1

Autopilot/Human (registered accident per million miles)

Q3/2018: 3.34/1.82 = 1.84
Q4/2018: 2.91/1.58 = 1.84
Q1/2019: 2.87/1.76 = 1.63

The numbers, as tabled in the above post, actually represent a number of miles driven/1 accident, not registered accidents per million miles.

Thora said:

The numbers, as tabled in the above post, actually represent a number of miles driven/1 accident, not registered accidents per million miles.

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Fair, though hard to see the difference as a layman.

Don't link to the stupid eltrek.co article with the misleading click bait headline. I hate that guy's increasingly deranged headlines and his refusal to link to the sources. He's really become a scourge to humanity.

The real info is always right here. Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

malcolm said:

Tesla releases new Autopilot safety report: more crashes but still fewer than when humans drive

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electronblue said:

Fair, though hard to see the difference as a layman.

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The difference is substantial. Your incorrect labeling of tabled numbers implies that the accidents are more frequent during driving with the autopilot engaged.

Or use this article with a proper headline and link to source.

Tesla's latest safety report finds drivers on Autopilot had fewer accidents

malcolm said:

Tesla releases new Autopilot safety report: more crashes but still fewer than when humans drive

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Thora said:

The difference is substantial. Your incorrect labeling of tabled numbers implies that the accidents are more frequent during driving with the autopilot engaged.

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Well that’s taking it out of context. I was simply summarizing the numbers from the post which by title said Autopilot was on the safer side.

An interpretation that my numbers would show Autopilot was on the less safe side ignores the context I was referencing.

I was merely posting the trend and the math that showed the trend.

I hate to quibble details since I personally believe AP provides a huge safety improvement. But in terms of statistics, we should note that the places (e.g. highway) where AP is currently viable (and therefore mostly used) probably have fewer accidents per mile than other types of roadways (e.g. urban, city streets, w/ intersections). AP would probably show a better safety improvement in those areas, but we don't really know yet, because the data is under-represented.

electronblue said:

Autopilot/Human (registered accident per million miles)

Q3/2018: 3.34/1.82 = 1.84
Q4/2018: 2.91/1.58 = 1.84
Q1/2019: 2.87/1.76 = 1.63

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What part of this post is wrong @Thora, @malcolm or @J1mbo?

Registered accident per million miles for AP: 3.34, 2.91, 2.87
Registered accident per million miles for non-AP: 1.82, 1.58, 1.76

And then I literally showed the division calculation for each.

The abbreviation for title of the table could have been clearer, but the numbers literally came from the story in the post.

malcolm said:

The math is fine.

I don't have a problem with that.

You mentioned a "context I was referencing". Er, any reference?

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I guess I thought my post would be clear after reading the Electrek story first (the first post).

I guess not given how it was taken. I literally only meant to post the numbers here and do quick math to show the trend.

To be clear, what I abbreviated as ”registered accident per million miles” it was meant to be short for registered ”accident per X million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.” It was just shorthand.

I thought it would have been clear after the original post. It didn’t occur to me anyone could take the numbers the other way given the title and context given by the first post. I could have been clearer.

Is there a disagreement over the numbers?

@malcolm OK, I just wanted to show the math for the three quarters Tesla has released data for.

If there is a mistake in the math do correct.

I’m already sorry I posted anything.

bhzmark said:

Don't link to the stupid eltrek.co article with the misleading click bait headline. I hate that guy's increasingly deranged headlines and his refusal to link to the sources. He's really become a scourge to humanity.

The real info is always right here. Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

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I think this says that for every mile driven, an "average" NHTSA car is four times more likely to have an accident than a hand driven Tesla, and seven times more likely than a Tesla on Autopilot.

I'm not sure why the hand driven cars are so much less likely to have an accident than average, unless it is driven by secondary factors like demographics.

Some of the driver assistance features may help, but all the crash safety features should be irrelevant to this metric and most Teslas I know are not driven extremely slowly and conservatively though they do tend to have experienced drivers.

electronblue said:

What part of this post is wrong @Thora, @malcolm or @J1mbo?

Registered million miles per accident for AP: 3.34, 2.91, 2.87
Registered million miles per accident for non-AP: 1.82, 1.58, 1.76

And then I literally showed the division calculation for each.

The abbreviation for title of the table could have been clearer, but the numbers literally came from the story in the post.

Click to expand...

Fixed it for you.

A little worrying that AP is trending towards more accidents / million miles.