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Tesla could surprise watchers next week by announcing a significantly more productive quarter than analysts predicted.
Bloomberg reported that the electric carmaker may have built close to 80,000 Model 3 sedans, much higher than the average analyst estimate of 64,000. Bloomberg noted that the difference is worth about $800 million in Model 3 cars.
To help piece the production picture together, Bloomberg launched last year an online tool to estimate the number of Model 3s coming out of Tesla’s factory. The tracker leverages Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), social media reports, and direct communication with Tesla owners.
“There’s been a flood of new VINs as Tesla rushes to deliver the car across multiple continents for the first time,” Bloomberg reported. “Submissions have been notably frequent from Norway, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland. A new lower-priced edition of the of the Model 3—the $37,500 Standard Range Plus—has finished strong in the U.S. There’s little known about the launch in China.”
The tracker has been accurate so far, forecasting Tesla’s actual output over the two past quarters within less than a percentage point. However, Bloomberg admits that the projection is an “uncomfortable place to be for an experimental model” since it differs greatly from analyst estimates.
“Those international VINs inflated the Bloomberg model so quickly that the projection required a new statistical smoothing method, which spread the extreme surplus out over a quarter,” the Bloomberg report said. “Until Tesla reports its latest production numbers, there’s no way to confirm the accuracy of these changes.”