Recent content by Bob Carver

3 years is the target for production unless that has changed. Things always take longer than planned, so the end of next year would be a real shocker if it happened. I'm not limiting the technology possibilities to either batteries or capacitors, or maybe both types produce advances beyond...

UT Austin is trying to partner with Tesla. That's why they're warning about this plunge into obsolescent technology. They would love to see the gigafactory being built in Austin!

It's an example of a disruptive technology that could turn a $5 billion investment into dust.

Well, the father of Lithium-Ion batteries agrees with me that better technology will likely supercede li-ion batteries: - - - Updated - - - Yes, from start to finish, you're right. But when a technology is in the 7th inning, rather than the 1st, it doesn't take long to reach the finish line.

One of the stories I read mentioned that range. I'll take the over if you'll take the under.:wink: - - - Updated - - - And, there may a completely different technology that comes along and supercedes both of them. It's a mug's game to say something will never be surpassed.

It turns out that the technology was fraudulent from the beginning. GM simply bought a pig in a poke.

Agreed. And GM will likely not be able to make a car as good as Tesla's. However, they could delay Tesla from reaching the mass market. And that could be reflected in the stock price at some point. - - - Updated - - - No, I think they should build the gigafactory, but in parallel invest in...

Where did I make that statement that "Tesla should not build the $6 billion plant"? I didn't. The point I was making was to not bet the farm on current technology. I didn't even suggest delaying building the gigafactory. My point was to be more aware of disruptive technology while making the big...

Don't assume the alternative technology would be hard to make. It might be easier, as well as cheaper. From what I know of the capacitor technology I am personally aware of, it will actually be much cheaper than Li-ion to manufacture. We won't know for sure until it's been developed a bit...

The investment landscape is littered with examples of giant companies throwing billions of dollars away on poorly-executed acquisitions. Two examples: ATT bought NCR and sold it later for pennies on the dollar after losing money for a decade. Time-Warner bought AOL and suffered huge losses. The...

Thank you. I don't think they were aware of just how quickly alternatives to Li-ion were developing. Now that they know, I think they will be able to tweak their plans to avoid being locked into betting $6 billion on a likely to be obsolete battery technology. They still need Li-ion batteries...

Exclusive agreements will likely result from this. If Tesla gets the exclusive, great, it's a win situation. But, it could be that GM buys up all the production in an exclusive contract. If it's going to cost Tesla $200/kWh for the Li-ion batteries three years from now, and a competitor like...

20 years? If a competitor uses a much cheaper technology in 3 years which has much more of a range, that would put a big dent in Tesla's growth curve. - - - Updated - - - Right. But, if the cost of the battery is the key determinant in breaking into the mass market, then a competitor with...

I feel like the engineer that recommended scrubbing the Challenger launch because he saw the risk of launching in sub-zero conditions as too high for safety reasons. The pointy-haired NASA managers ignored him, launched anyway and destroyed the shuttle and its 7 crew members. Hopefully, Tesla...

I probably left a wrong impression that only one technology I've seen is the best alternative. There are many promising successors to Li-ion. I don't have any intention of shorting the stock. But if it were to fall precipitously due to this potential blunder, it would certainly be a buying...