Recent content by Gtoffo

2 others both in 16xx range. Looks like something moved yesterday. First consumer batch in production?

Agreed. That's why those indicators should be used only to asses the GENERAL trend. Certainly not an indication of precise numbers of units due to all the uncertainties we have discussed.

Agreed. Also VINs include several digits that are dependant on configuration (e.g. dual or single motor etc.), production, and model year. So they can only be assigned once the configuration has been confirmed by the client and production has been planned. Otherwise the car might end up having...

Another very good indicator. If we reach any meaningful weekly rate we should see some change there.

@Waiting4M3 for your records VIN 40 was delivered today (saw personal pictures of the new car). We already know VINs are a fickle thing. But highest VIN + frequency sighting should still give us a good idea of delivery pace.

VIN 1096 spotted among 20-30 others according to this comment. Six Model 3s in Playa Vista • r/teslamotors Edit: images of VINs Playa Vista Model 3 staging area

I agree. I would expect delivery time to be at least a month after end of production so we should be (to be prudent) lagging by a couple of months with VIN sightings. On the other hand we know from Tesla that VINs are usually assigned a month and a half before production for Model S & X...

If they are producing 700 cars a week or any other significative number we should see with a delay of weeks a big spike in sighted maximum VINs. Delay should be equal to delivery time+sighting time. Not sure what the delivery time is for CA deliveries of Model S though.... I would estimate...

Thanks. If we had to estimate, what would the lag between production and VIN sighting be? How long since end o prod and delivery for model S if we don't have hard data about 3. If we are indeed at 700 a week as some reports suggest we should soon see a big spike in highest VIN sighted.

no the highest but still close to 1000 so noteworthy. Should we post all of them to create the VIN graph we saw a couple of days back? How was the data collected for that graph? EDIT: just saw the graph was by @Waiting4M3 so I already know he has all the known deliveries covered :-D you are...

Looks like Itay has only recently started to cover TSLA so no way of evaluating his past record... "we sensed a level of confidence that recently identified issues are on their way to being fixed and that the new timetable to reach 5k/week (end of Q1’18) allows for some cushion." That's news...

Very interesting. It's a bit off topic but I've always wondered how Tesla could use that train line and where it leads. Could be a pretty big factor for logistics if instead of all those trucks you get one big train to the east coast. The self driving parking is amazing.... think about the...

Worried about that. But couldn't resist some LEAP bull call spreads under 300$... buckling in for some ruff times. See ya all in 6 months.

BMW grew revenues y/y this quarter by 0.4% not 4%. Stock value is based on future expectations and growth rate. You have been around this forum for a while so I'm sure you are aware of that. I'm buying. See ya in 15 months!

Only if their growth rate will be 0% y/y at that point just like BMW and working on old tech without a future. Which I don't think it will be so it will be substantially higher than that.