Recent content by luvb2b

you should release them. and please private message me when you do. i'm a reasonably good analyst but i stand humbled by your excellent long term predictions. it's a valuable lesson that those spreadsheets will help me and others learn. thanks. your youtube channel is fantastic.

twitter case study is a good one. there is a pool of hedge funds that does index arb trading, and some large cap managers who take active weightings work around that as well. in recent years the number of hedge funds is down and active managers have lost assets to index funds. so...

i've been off the forum for a while but still have my modeling for the company. i attached an update below. street estimates still look too low for the december quarter. there's an upside surprise catalyst in that i have not modeled additional credits from the fiat/chrysler deal. i would...

i feel fortunate to get even 1-2 quarters right and thus could be rightfully accused of short-termism when it comes to forecasting.

1 warranty issue is sort of a non-issue. warranty reserving levels are lower than they have been, but it also seems appropriate due to better reliability. 2 china revenue was surprisingly low, netherlands + norway > china. most estimates i've seen for units to china are about 10% too high...

most of what you said is correct - however, there are index members going in and coming out all the time. so usually it's quite soon after the qualifications are met at that tesla would get into the s&p 500.

i think you got it right. there was an economic improvement that amounts to about 2% gross margin on the whole auto business. it appears to 0.4% comes from fixed cost depreciation benefits at higher scale, and i think the other 1.6% is higher asp. my guess on the higher asp is a combination...

one of my biggest misses in a long time. here's the actual numbers, i often do a comparison but as i spend less time on tesla in general i just did a quick update instead. a few comments: my cost of revenues were only about 30m high, but revenues were way off, esp. in automotive. considering...

correct - the asp is inclusive of zev/non-zev credits. since i include credits on a separate line, the pro-rata share has to be backed out to get model 3 revenue excluding credits. hope that made sense. the 103m difference is the proportionate share of the 126.4m total credits. i did notice...

i view steep drops in a prior quarter as not stopping at a flat line. it takes a while for the full effect of the drop to flow through a complete reporting period before you see the stable level. i could easily be wrong this quarter if for example uk and australia orders were skewed towards...

agree, but i think it still carries opex and losses around the income statement. i have spoken to solar installers who have seen the solar roof product and they saying it's far from making economic sense at least in the Northern states.

i thought about my numbers again. units are up slightly but more than offset by the combination of higher leasing and lower asp. that's what i am staying with. perhaps deferred revenue, storage, service, or credits will provide a greater jolt than i guessed but i'm not counting on it. i...

this may call for an update on my side. do you have a reference for this? i do a linear estimate from mw installed and i've felt my method is incorrect due to the price per mw being absurdly high now. another question, using your estimation could you determine if storage margins were positive...

solar mw deployed have dropped every quarter on a y-o-y basis every quarter since the solar city acquisition. solar mw deployed has also dropped q-o-q each of the last 3 quarters. i'm going with the trend is my friend and saying mw deployed are dropping q-o-q again, and taking revenues along...

you lose 140m in revenue at 20% gm is like 28m in gross profit but you also lose 90m in one-time charges. that's about 60m. i also have modeled gross profit improvements (slight) in model 3, service, and storage. those other trends are powerful i think and make up the difference, along with...