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Recent content by Todd Burch

  1. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    This was near Williamsburg/Newport News. I’ve never seen it switch to auto max before there however.
  2. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Didn’t mind having auto max on the interstate—I just want to be able to limit the max speed manually, and it’s disconcerting when the only way to slow down is to disengage.
  3. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Anyone else see this? The other day I was on the interstate (I-64 in Virginia). FSD engaged (12.3.4). The car got confused and was actually on auto max speed, which usually doesn’t happen on the interstate. The car went to 84 mph (traffic usually goes about 75 here, speed limit 70) and my...
  4. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ok, so back to value of FSD: Suppose Tesla insurance charges some per-mile premium when driving manually, and a significantly less per-mile premium while driving on FSD. Safety statistics could, in the not-too-distant future, support a situation where the insurance savings alone could pay for...
  5. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    With regard to the value of FSD to consumers, you’re all right. Those who say they can’t justify $12k or $99/month because they can’t afford it, or it doesn’t bring enough value, or whatever—are right. And those who say they paid $12k or $199/month in a heartbeat because they love it are right...
  6. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Limited inputs? Go was explicitly chosen because it is a complicated game with FAR more possible plays than chess. From Scientific American: “Go's complexity is bigger, much bigger. With its breadth of 250 possible moves each turn (Go is played on a 19 by 19 board compared to the much smaller...
  7. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just want to point out that Ashok and Elon have seen and are probably driving 12.4 if not something beyond that. (James Douma thinks so too). So Elon and Ashok have witnessed firsthand the rate of change from 12.3 to their current internal build. I don’t think the big focus on autonomy is a...
  8. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah I was thinking if anyone needs to cut way MORE than 10% of their workforce, it would be Rivian and Lucid.
  9. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Completely disagree with your valuation at $40/share if autonomy fails. Nonsense. If autonomy fails, and assuming Optimus goes nowhere: 1. Tesla energy still exists. 2. Tesla still makes cars. 3. Tesla still has the best driver assistance package on earth and can sell it to any car company. 4...
  10. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Meanwhile, FSD drove 45 minutes to work and another 50 minutes back today. I only intervened to keep the speed up and to initiate a lane change a few times because I was impatient. And there was decently heavy traffic today--successful zipper merges, correct decisions to go, etc. Can't wait to...
  11. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Not sure if joking. You remember a few weeks ago when vehicles were gathering data at that intersection? I assume you understand that data has not gone through a cycle of training and is not incorporated in the neural network in 12.3, correct?
  12. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, I've sat through a day of drama on here. Jesus. So many people making assumptions about this or that without any facts. Typical. I'll summarize the facts we learned from the nonsense today: 1. Any executive that spends less than 50 years in a high profile executive position under a...
  13. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The size of two data banks being the same means nothing. As an example, two 1000x1000 matrices of 16-bit weight values can be completely different and still have the exact same data size.
  14. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Like many, as a shareholder I’m hoping the next significant version comes during the trial period so those trying it out can gauge the rate of improvement.
  15. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    A single iteration of the network takes on the order of weeks to train, with additional weeks of testing at the very minimum and tons of new training footage. No way a newly-trained model comes out as a maintenance (third number) version. The 12.3.3 to 12.3.4 release has configuration changes...