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  1. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yep. This continued focus on the subtle differences in point releases is really odd when it appears to just be tweaks to inputs of the model. We’ll really only know whether there is any hope with the next release of a new retrained model (maybe 12.4 which Elon will say should arguably be...
  2. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    No. Right, that is mysterious to me. Even me, an inveterate California stopper, would have approximated a stop at the line. No it accelerated from the position behind the lead car into the intersection. It just so happened that the light turned green before it got to the line. It...
  3. AlanSubie4Life

    Poll: When will FSD V12 be in wide release?

    Yes, it's easy to tell: 1) Speed control works totally differently. It goes at the speed you set. 2) If in Auto Max/ASSO mode you can see it stops saying "MAX" or whatever. 3) The tentacle is a different length in v11 (longer). 4) If you have lane change notifications turned on you'll start...
  4. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Again, hard to regress on something that has always failed. I like the new approach. Just need to be about 5 times as assertive. I agree they may be attempting to limit use. Any human would just take over and go on these trivial turns. They'd more likely just take over on the completely...
  5. AlanSubie4Life

    HV Battery Died with 7 miles range left showing on Range display

    Yes, this is a huge difference vs. the described behavior. Out of Spec routinely uses up some of the buffer. (In general one should not do this, but going to 0% should be fine.) I don't think so. This is a major safety concern. Getting stuck on the highway when driving responsibly with an...
  6. AlanSubie4Life

    HV Battery Died with 7 miles range left showing on Range display

    This is really bad. It usually indicates a failing battery of some form. What vehicle type? Do you have some pictures? Definitely very abnormal. It sounds like your BMS has no idea what is going on and Tesla will need to fix it. You have to make them go into the logs and figure out what...
  7. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    So weird though - why did it go to 8mph without stopping at the line? I do often press the accelerator (otherwise I would have been much closer behind the lead car), but I didn’t here, because all of a sudden (after just lazing about) it was off to the races! As a human, you proceed to the...
  8. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah it was bad. It did not blow the red (would have if it did not change). But it was obvious that the pedestrian was going to go. And it was obviously completely wrong. The video is super clear, and I have proven that she stepped into the road (as was her right). I am not sure what...
  9. AlanSubie4Life

    Refreshed M3LR at 78kWh Capacity

    Yeah, if it's not charged up then discharged it is possible the estimate is just off, but probably not by much. You can try but I would tend to believe this result. You can also swap between % & rated miles and confirm it projects to ~266 at 100%. This vehicle started with 322 miles...
  10. AlanSubie4Life

    Refreshed M3LR at 78kWh Capacity

    That's one of the poorest results I have seen. If this is correct, your car would display 266 rated miles at 100% (64.26kWh /77.8kWh * 322 rated miles = 266 rated miles). 12000 miles is very low though - was it stored at 80-90% most of this time?
  11. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I was driving so I assure you she was in the street when gesticulating - and in the second image below. This is also extremely clear from the video! You can see her take a step or two forward. Watch her position relative to the post; she's taken one to two steps into the street (which you can...
  12. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Huh? She was striding aggressively into the crosswalk.
  13. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    This sums up my general FSD 12.x mood: Poorly done by me (should have had both hands on wheel, probably would not have gotten quite so far if I had been 100% ready, but I really expected the car to come to a halt again at the stop line (as legally required if the light had been red when it...
  14. AlanSubie4Life

    Poll: Do You Plug In Every Day (for daily driving, home charging)?

    It all depends on your use case and whether you want to cut your capacity loss roughly in half (not really a huge deal but could impact resale, or potentially usability between very long distances between Superchargers (very unusual). Keep it above 60%, get double the capacity loss (roughly)...
  15. AlanSubie4Life

    Refreshed M3LR at 78kWh Capacity

    You'd have to show the pictures or at least the calculation. 64kWh would be low, much lower than we normally see. Seems unlikely. Just be sure not to set instantaneous display! And remember to divide by the SOC %
  16. AlanSubie4Life

    Poll: Do You Plug In Every Day (for daily driving, home charging)?

    It's a much smaller contributor than keeping it (storing it) below 55% (for NCA packs, it's a higher percentage "allowed" for storage for LFP), but minimizing depth of discharge is better for the pack. There's plenty of data showing that you can get more "full cycles equivalent" out of packs...
  17. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The auto speed behavior will also be very different if you're in manual model (not using Auto Max). (Meaning very different behavior when using v12 stack on freeway vs. v11 stack as intended.) So Auto Max and Manual behavior will be the same in this regard. So pretty easy to tell in manual...
  18. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Yes. Likely biased estimates since self reported. We'll never know unless Tesla tells us. Seems possible it is higher than my under-5% estimate, but hard to say in the past six months or so.
  19. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    AI has cracked the nut. Claude says 60% of purchases in Q4 2022 included the full $15k FSD package. "It's important to note that these figures only represent the percentage of customers who opt to purchase the full FSD package upfront, and do not include those who may later subscribe to the...
  20. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    When I drive 12.3.4 I guess I'll have to see whether it seems different on my turn (which it does acceptably well except for the 10-20 second approach, and the occasional unpredictable stopping in traffic lanes (haven't seen in a week or so)). It's generally better than v11 was on my turn, and...
  21. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    While Chuck may state otherwise in the videos, there's no evidence that any retraining of FSD for this release has been done. Why would they? We'll know when they retrain. The car will drive differently! Note that there have been no driving behavior changes for any 12.3.x release so far...
  22. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Yeah gonna be pretty biased, and the direction is clear. 5% seems about right for recently with mass market adoption. Kind of surprising! Wonder if that held up. Could also be partially due to biased sample but doesn’t really explain that. May just be a case of all or nothing. I guess...
  23. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Haha. Is this Tesla data? Voluntarily gathered data is pretty meaningless in this case (unlike capacity loss etc. - even that is imperfect). Super biased sample. 15% seems to support my under 5% I guess - seems about right for 5% or below now. I was referring to US only. I mean I could...
  24. AlanSubie4Life

    4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

    He counted that allegedly. I am not paying any attention. Ah I see what you mean - the cross members, ABOVE the battery. Yeah. Just need structural cells. I also refuse to believe this is crush protection. It is just stupid. What is Tesla going to do? Replace that plate for you for $1k...
  25. AlanSubie4Life

    4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

    33mm of crush zone. “Brilliant.” The only thing crushed is 46120 dreams.
  26. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    No one was purchasing FSD. Take rate must have been under 5%.
  27. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    As has been mentioned, this is because this is imminently going to be worth $100k or more. So cannot reduce the fixed price; our cars are nearly Robotaxis which will be very valuable. Remember, once FSD is solved, Tesla will stop selling cars (they will just keep them all for themselves)...
  28. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yes. It just makes sense it will get cheaper over time.
  29. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    He said that autonomous safety features would be free. Convenience features have to be paid for. If safety became dramatically higher with FSD, as proven by billions of miles of safety data, then it would be a safety feature and would be included. This is fairly standard industry practice.
  30. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Definitely good to see the continued decline in cost. When it becomes a safety feature, it will be free, just as Elon has said.
  31. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    This is why he should use manual mode which is the same as ASSO, but better. Has basically all the benefits. In a few situations (when car is well above the speed limit by 30%, but still traveling too slowly) you may have to scroll to adjust. But otherwise manual mode seems way better and...
  32. AlanSubie4Life

    100% range on new Model Y LR with 3 miles on it calculates to 301 miles

    Please use the method!!! Energy is all that matters. This gives you energy (or the degradation threshold, which is ~79.5kWh for 2024 AWD Y, the max cap value these cars will show with this method, even if actual energy is higher). It includes the buffer energy. Model Y 2024 EPA energy was...
  33. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Who said this? (Not me, for sure, so must have been someone else.) I made it very clear I wanted to be able to go 88mph, on rare occasions when brief (2-3 seconds) excursions above 80mph are needed to reposition the vehicle to avoid other traffic. Going above 90 mph when the normal flow of...
  34. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    You are fortunate. It’s often pretty frightening. It is not that uncommon in California unfortunately. I have actually had to get out of the way this way in the past. Reducing closing speed is important, as is getting out of the way ASAP. Slowing down can be an option but gotta be...
  35. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I for one would like to have a little more margin for getting locked out of using AP until parking, when passing people on the freeway when unexpected hazardous scenarios arise (for example, someone coming from behind at 95-110mph quite suddenly), which make going above about 87mph necessary for...
  36. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yes, it's excellent. I really like how Tesla is leaning in on FSD now. How is that going? Happily going 90mph? Yes, this is an impossible problem and will require AGI.
  37. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Not sure who said this. Anyway not in ASSO mode. This would only be the case in manual mode. Maybe this works. I have my doubts since it doesn't appear ASSO limit changes are respected even when it increases the underlying SSO. But it's possible that when the car in ASSO mode is already...
  38. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    It changes the limit. You just can’t see it. This limit appears to be ignored though, for values under the detected speed, in ASSO mode. So if you scroll it down to 10mph it seems to ignore it until you go to manual mode and scroll again to set it to a low value. There may be situations...
  39. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    The question is whether the mode mattered. The described behavior definitely happens. My claim is it happens in both modes on 12.3.3. I have never seen any difference in ASSO vs manual in this regard. On this drive did you try both modes and notice a difference?
  40. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Yes the set speed is hidden and is by default 50% over the limit; you can see this by switching on the fly to manual mode. In most cases this cap does not get reached of course. The cap speed doesn’t seem to have any appreciable effect on speeds below that cap.
  41. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Interesting - I have never observed this with 12.3.3. It’s literally been indistinguishable for me. The reason to switch back to manual is always driven for me by incorrect speed limit identification. It is just easier for me to scroll the cap speed. Meanwhile in 12.3.3 all the other...
  42. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Interesting. I’ve never seen any difference in behavior - and I have switched back and forth a LOT.
  43. AlanSubie4Life

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Yep, manual mode for the win. It gives you all the features of ASSO with none of the speeding. The only difference is the speed cap. I have no idea why anyone would use ASSO. Manual with occasional scrolling to adjust the cap upwards will be equivalent to better.
  44. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Gonna fix those turns for sure. Unfortunately it is not Beta so the betting is off. I know everyone is disappointed, especially @Daniel in SD who has a big beer deficit. Meanwhile I have a big beer belly. 🫃🏻. Unless we can come up with a new set of rules I guess I go out on top. I’m...
  45. AlanSubie4Life

    Waymo

    I firmly believe I should not need to put :) on every single post.
  46. AlanSubie4Life

    Waymo

    This is why you should never rely on lidar, which is a crutch.
  47. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    No it was going to stop. I was driving. It was a reaction to the light. I did not say it was not longer in some cases. In this case it appeared to be 0.5 seconds (which is not very good to be clear).
  48. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    New video showing more correct behaviors, etc. whatever their iteration process is to adjust the weights and tweaks to the architecture if needed. Seems like hasn’t been done recently. FSD v12.x (end to end AI) I think it can be as low as 0.5 seconds (reaction time here).
  49. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Interesting. Wonder if there will be any evidence of retraining in this one? So far they seem to be holding off on that. Haven’t seen anything in 12.3.x, just minor adjustments which don’t seem to appear like retraining. I am not sure what retraining would look like, it’s just my sense that...
  50. AlanSubie4Life

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    This is what I meant, just really roughly. Of course users who bought FSD likely use it more on the freeways so probably it is more like 5-6x as many people using it on the freeway now with less average miles per user. But as with most things Tesla, it is impossible to derive anything...