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  1. ludicrousspeed

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    I think from a guidance perspective, the letter and call were both great. However, from a financial perspective, there is (and always has been) one glaring concern for me: SG&A costs. This quarter SG&A amounted to over 29.6% of revenues and almost totaled more than their gross profit after the...
  2. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Hillary made a few comments about creating jobs by investing in renewable energy. Specifically said she wanted to deploy half a billion solar panels and use a "modern electric grid."
  3. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    SolarCity deal is official, deal will be announced tomorrow: CNBC Now on Twitter
  4. ludicrousspeed

    Speculative Tesla Segments

    Happy to see 1 and (unexpectedly) 2 and 3 get announced with today's post. Excited for the future of this company.
  5. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Exactly. He also said "It would be really big news if I start (elaborating) here." His body language alone gives the sense that it's going to be huge news. I think it's very likely that they are going to announce their own ride-sharing platform based on autonomy.
  6. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Exactly. They are basically saying "if we overcame all of these obstacles, the future shouldn't be that difficult in comparison." At the same time they're countering the bear argument that people constantly shuffle through important positions by featuring employees who've been with the company...
  7. ludicrousspeed

    Official: TSLA Shareholder Meeting 2016 Questions

    Which do you see entering production first: Roadster 2 or a Tesla truck?
  8. ludicrousspeed

    Official: TSLA Shareholder Meeting 2016 Questions

    How can Tesla reduce SG&A costs (as a % of revenue) while simultaneously expanding service networks to accommodate for the massive increase in Tesla vehicles/owners?
  9. ludicrousspeed

    Model S driver filmed sleeping in traffic!! Calling All Forum Safety Nannies!!

    This is great free advertising. I've seen this video shared on my Facebook feed more than any other single Tesla video I can remember (M3 reveal is close) and it's truly surprising to many.
  10. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Tesla driver caught sleeping while Autopilot steers On the topic of Apple/autonomous cars, I thought I'd share this article since it hasn't been posted on the thread. Just goes to show how far autonomous technology really is today. As avid Tesla followers, most of us have a good understanding...
  11. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Cadillac has ended production of its electric car after just 2 years So much for the bear case that Tesla is a goner once other big auto companies start putting effort into EVs. Not as easy as you thought I guess.. wonder how many of these "Tesla killers" will be discontinued before making a...
  12. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Tesla up to 29,311,876 shares sold short as of 05/13/216. This is the first increase in shares sold short and the highest recorded amount since March of this year. This is after their Q1 ER, which further proves the market's skepticism around the company's projections. Due to poor execution...
  13. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I'm really looking forward to the shareholder's meeting, but I'm not expecting any positive news not stated during the CC. If they had any serious, stock moving information to unveil, I feel like they would've either said it during the CC or delayed the capital raise another month or so. Just my...
  14. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I know what you were replying to, and I stand firm with my claim that Tesla increased Model S deliveries, year over year, in each individual quarter since the car was released. When looking at deliveries, you must look at them year over year (comparing this year's quarterly data with last year's...
  15. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Will happen slowly over the next few weeks - does not happen all at once. MS deliveries have increased each of the past two years by over 50%, and continue to grow year over year. This won't continue, but demand/deliveries still growing at a large clip, as evidenced by Q1'16 MS deliveries...
  16. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    CNBC comparing Tesla to Valeant right now. This, along with criticizing them for their risk disclosures, are some of the most desperate bear cases I can remember.
  17. ludicrousspeed

    Website wait times for delivery change

    That's where we differ. Their 10Q, which was released just last week, specifies that they plan to deliver 50k vehicles in the 2nd half of the year. On the CC, they predicted leaving Q2 at a 2,000 weekly run rate, 40% of which would be X. That implies that they plan to produce over 20k MX in just...
  18. ludicrousspeed

    Website wait times for delivery change

    I'm not ruling out a delivery miss, but this post is highly speculative. You're saying that Tesla would need to deliver at least 30k MX to meet 80k total deliveries, implying that they're selling a flat 50K MS this year. That would be a decrease from last year's total, despite the fact that...
  19. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Probably just a guess like everybody else. This is far lower than most analyst's have predicted, which bodes well. I think any capital raise at this point will be a positive catalyst because the market is so unsure as to how much Tesla needs and how easily they can get it.
  20. ludicrousspeed

    Speculative Tesla Segments

    *Preface: this discussion is purely speculative. I think Tesla should only be valued on the products/services they have officially announced and sold to date* Tesla being "only a car company" is its biggest misconception. Their mission statement is to transition the world to sustainable and...
  21. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    That was part 2. MX was initially unveiled in 2012.
  22. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Yep I wouldn't expect Pt II of the M3 reveal until much closer to deliveries. On a side note, when does everybody expect M3 mules to hit the road? Can't wait to see those
  23. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Tesla hires a longtime Audi executive to take over vehicle production Great news, based on the CC I think we will hear at least one more name in the next week or so.
  24. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-eyes-3b-equity-raise-172720706 I can't believe that analysts and authors like this get paid to cover Tesla. The total cost, whether it's less than or more than $3 billion, simply will not be raised all at once. Tesla has never raised more than $750M at one...
  25. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Great post, I agree with most of your thoughts. Here's a few things I can add onto your points: 1. I agree that Elon is definitely trying to avoid a "down round" of funding, because that would be his first in over 20 years of managing multiple companies. I believe that he came to the conclusion...
  26. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Agreed. I think the best opportunity to shock the market in the short-term is to beat 17K deliveries in Q2 by a meaningful margin, hold off on CapEx until July, and possibly become profitable on a non-GAAP basis or FCF+ for this quarter. Thinking that they will do this in the 2nd half of the...
  27. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Capital Expenditures are often included in Depreciation and Amortization, which is included in the income statement, which affects profitability. Highly capital intensive businesses, like Tesla, will see huge differences in EBITDA and EBIT. The former doesn't include CapEx, while the latter does.
  28. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    With the advancement of Model 3 production goals, I'm not sure this is a likely outcome due to high CapEx spending. They've increased their initial $1.5B spending projection to about $2.25B for 2016. With only $216.9 million dedicated to CapEx in Q1, they still have over $2 billion to spend on...
  29. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Elon Musk on Twitter Haven't seen Elon with a sarcastic tweet like this.. something tells me he wouldn't do this if he wasn't confident he'd prove everything they're saying wrong and make them look like idiots in retrospect. Or he could just be doing it for a good laugh, which it also was.
  30. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Sure, TSLA has traded in the same relative range for about 2.5 years now with some decent volatility. I'm just saying it would be "probably unwise" to short it, especially while it's near the bottom of that trading range. Shorts may make money in the short-term, but that is doubtful in the...
  31. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    If history tells you anything it's don't bet against Musk or Tesla.
  32. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Here's my two cents on share dilution: (Again, just my opinion, with a completely hypothetical scenario) Since Tesla isn't valued on an EPS basis right now, you shouldn't use that metric when describing share dilution. This is because it's impossible to know when Tesla will slow down their...
  33. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Something tells me there will be some short-term catalysts to move the stock price up before an equity offering. Remember that Musk has always raised equity at higher valuations each round, for all of his companies, ever. First off, the way they came out and blatantly said they were going to...
  34. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    It really boils down to market expectations and the trust that it has in Tesla. This will not change over night. Long-term, we will most-likely see a 10-fold increase in the SP, just not over the next 5 years. Tesla can no longer shock the market and grow over 4x in one year like it did in...
  35. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I agree that Tesla's advantages in the autonomous driving field are by far the most overlooked aspect of their potential earning power. However, it's not possible to have over 100% gross profit margin, even if the revenues are multiples of the cost of those goods. For example, if an iPhone...
  36. ludicrousspeed

    Part 2 reveal (post Q1 results CC)

    Based on Elon's optimism about the "super next level" reveal part II, I'm sensing that something huge is in the cards. I agree with a lot of the predictions on this thread about HUD, autopilot, battery pack sizes, advanced steering/controls, specific options/pricing, and increased...
  37. ludicrousspeed

    Two Tesla Production Chiefs Leave according to Bloomberg

    That would be ideal but unfortunately, he would choose SpaceX.
  38. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    The next few years are going to be very exciting. I wish somebody on the CC had asked how they plan to further expand supercharger and service center development to accommodate for the huge increase in guidance for the coming years. Does anybody disagree with the fact that they're going to have...
  39. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    "Close to 1 million vehicles in 2020."
  40. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Very weird response to the $190/kwh question. Any chance that they're not currently there?
  41. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Elon just said he's very excited to announce a few new additions to the management/production team in the next few weeks. Great news to combat the two execs who just left.
  42. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Not too much clarity on TE, but two points stood out for me: "We remain on plan to make the first cells at the Gigafactory in Q4 2016" "During Q1, we delivered over 25 MWh of energy storage to customers in four continents." I was under the impression that GF cell production would be late...
  43. ludicrousspeed

    Speculative Tesla owned Uber-like service impact on Tesla's Mission and Valuation?

    Came across this this video today, not affiliated with Tesla but still cool to see how it could look.
  44. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Thank you. This is why I feel way more informed reading the forums than the mainstream articles. This wasn't posted anywhere and is given no attention, but it really puts a dent in the bear thesis that Tesla can't profit off of lower priced vehicles like the M3.
  45. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    It's an Apple emoji and that's just how it's designed - nothing underlying there. I think 100kwh models announced within the next month.
  46. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Goldman is seriously misinformed if they think that in 2025 there's a 50% chance of $50B in revenue and 25% chance of $33B in revenue. In automotive sales revenues? Maybe. Everything else included? Low chance.
  47. ludicrousspeed

    New Tesla Self-Driving Bus???

    Elon Praises Norway For Its Carbon-Free Vision (Video) Skip to the 40 minute mark in the link above for to see for yourself what he said about "self-driving busses" that everybody is misquoting him on. Another example of popular news outlets like Bloomberg misguiding the public with click-bait...
  48. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Review of my Model X, Tesla and the Car Industry Some of you may have seen this on Twitter, but I thought it would be an insightful read that relates to TSLA both in the short and long term. IMO Model X delays and production problems are the only thing holding the stock back in the short-term...
  49. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Thanks for the response. I understand that they have been producing and even installing power packs for some time now. I was wondering when we will see a significant ramp up in TE that really has an impact on financials.
  50. ludicrousspeed

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    On the topic of the GF opening.. will the event signify that the first 25% is fully completed? And will that mean a significant increase in Tesla Energy production for the 2nd half of the year?

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