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  1. diplomat33

    Motional

    Yeah, Motional is struggling. They recently laid off a lot of people and delayed their first robotaxi service to 2026. Personally, I don't see Motional surviving. They lack the engineering resources IMO.
  2. diplomat33

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I wear sunglasses when I drive on very bright, sunny days. It is a bummer that I may not get the full benefit of "hands-free" during the summer.
  3. diplomat33

    Monolithic versus Compound AI System

    Yes the blog is wrong about the latest GPT model not being E2E. But I think you are missing the blog's argument. The blog is not arguing that E2E is not capable or not generalized. The argument is about safety. The argument is that AVs are safety critical applications, ChatGPT is not. So yes...
  4. diplomat33

    Monolithic versus Compound AI System

    Shashua talks about the ability for AI to "reason" outside of it's training data. He says we are not quite there yet. As I understand it, the way FSD E2E training works is that sensor input is mapped to a control output. Simple examples might be something like "red light" is mapped to "stop"...
  5. diplomat33

    Monolithic versus Compound AI System

    Koopman has a neat little video that explains the long tail. I think it begs the question: how much of the long tail actually needs to be solved for AVs to be safe/good enough? In other words, when does an edge case become so rare that we don't care anymore? Koopman makes the point that as...
  6. diplomat33

    Monolithic versus Compound AI System

    The discussion of bias vs variance was very interesting. I learned some new things. I thought their example of the long tail was especially interesting. In their example, it would take a fleet of 1M cars about 3 years to finish the last "9" in the march of 9s. They acknowledge that nobody...
  7. diplomat33

    Waymo

    That's because Tesla FSD is supervised so there is a safety driver to prevent a collision. I've had phantom braking that would have resulted in a collision had I not immediately intervened.
  8. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Yes that is the other theory. If true, then the answer would be to train the perception stack to understand this case. We've seen research examples from Waymo that deal with this type of case of a composite object (one object inside or connected to another object). So they are aware of the...
  9. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Waymo will also drive manually just to collect data for training, not necessarily for mapping. That is what they did on their "road trip" to Bellevue and DC for example. So the driving in Atlanta may have been that. And AFAIK, Waymo has not said anything about moving away from HD maps. I am...
  10. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Yes, I think this is another example that supports my thesis. If Waymo were driving "on rails" on the HD map, we would expect it to just stick dead center in the lane. The fact that it ping pongs in the lane is because the ML planner is given more freedom to maneuver. In this case, it looks like...
  11. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Makes perfect sense. NHTSA is just doing their job. When you have repeated incidents of Waymo AVs violating traffic laws, it requires an investigation. Hopefully, we get some more info.
  12. diplomat33

    Waymo

    It is possible that the Waymo or the other car tried to lane change at the last second to try to avoid the impact but was not able to because of the other's car's high speed. It is impossible to say for sure without more details. Agree 100%. Yes, the other car was speeding so the blame is...
  13. diplomat33

    Cruise

    Cruise begins supervised autonomous driving in Phoenix:
  14. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Waymo accident with a black Toyota sedan on the 10 Freeway. No details yet but from the look of the damage on the Waymo, it appears that the Waymo was hit from behind by the Toyota.
  15. diplomat33

    Wiki Consumer AV - Status Tracking Thread

    The video I posted is an independent video from the Zeekr owner. They are not videos by Mobileye.
  16. diplomat33

    Wiki Consumer AV - Status Tracking Thread

    I believe they are deployed in early access to some zeekr owners.
  17. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I am not claiming the stat is 100% accurate. But since Tesla does not release official disengagement data, teslafsdtracker is the best we got. And it at least gives us a ball park. And I agree that people may be over reporting issues as safety disengagements when they are not. So what do you...
  18. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    It is based on how people report the disengagement to the website.
  19. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Safety interventions are disengagements when you believed there was a safety risk, like when you thought FSD might cause an accident. For example, it looks like FSD might hit another car or might run over an object on the road etc... Disengagements due to navigation, routing, poor lane choice...
  20. diplomat33

    Waymo

    I know this is just PR. I wonder if this change in messaging is a result of the viral incidents we saw lately. If you read the other tweets in the threads, Waymo basically says "safety is not enough, we want the community to trust us". It feels like a subtle way of saying "we are aware of the...
  21. diplomat33

    Waymo

    AFAIK, in CA, when testing with a safety driver, AV companies have to report disengagements and collisions. When testing without a safety driver, AV companies only have to report collisions. When deployed driverless in a commercial service, they only have to report collisions.
  22. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Waymo is doing 50,000 paid trips every week across three major cities now.
  23. diplomat33

    Waymo

  24. diplomat33

    Luminar’s largest customer: Tesla

    I got to disagree there. You don't need level 5 to do robotaxis. We already have robotaxis on public roads like Waymo and they are level 4. Remember you still need to "solve" self-driving to 99.9999% to do level 4. Both level 4 and level 5 require 99.9999% reliability. The only difference...
  25. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I will be happy when FSD is officially hands-free. There are definitely long stretches where I could go hands-free because FSD handles things well. My concern is more with the sudden "take over immediately" alerts that can be super jarring. And if there are no nags, and we are able to go...
  26. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I interpreted the lol emoji to refer to a bunch of Teslas getting stuck in the same place. I think Elon was saying that having a bunch of Teslas getting stuck in the same place would be funny. I don't think Elon was saying that notifying the fleet is a joke.
  27. diplomat33

    Luminar’s largest customer: Tesla

    One possibility is that Elon is simply lying and Tesla does still need lidar for ground truth validation but he does not want to admit it because it would undermine his narrative about how far ahead Tesla is with the end-to-end approach. Another possibility is that Tesla is planning to add lidar...
  28. diplomat33

    Luminar’s largest customer: Tesla

    No, Elon says that Tesla does not need to do ground truth validation anymore now that they have switched to V12. That is because end to end does not use occupancy networks. End to end also does not have a separate perception stack that requires validation. End to end takes in pixels and directly...
  29. diplomat33

    Waymo

    That is super cool to get a glimpse of the behind the scenes. It is also sort of "magical" to see these fully driverless cars come back to the depot when they are done, wait and then drive off when summoned again to pick up a rider. It seems like most of that is automated.
  30. diplomat33

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Well, for one, L4 cars like Waymo don't "freak out" with warnings to the driver to take over since they need to operate without a human driver. They are trained to know how to handle the situation on their own, maybe by slowing down to regain traction. It is probably one reason why Waymo spent a...
  31. diplomat33

    Waymo

  32. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Impressive video of Waymo responding to hand gestures from traffic officer fully autonomously (no remote assistance confirmed by Waymo).
  33. diplomat33

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Yes, I think so. See the Mobileye imaging radar that fits nicely in the ID.Buzz AV.
  34. diplomat33

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    This is actually the first time it has happened to me, which is why it was particularly jarring and scary. If it did happen all the time, I would be ready for it. The fact that it was the first time that it happened, took me by surprise. I think the only difference is that it had rained so the...
  35. diplomat33

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Yes, I think he is assuming that there will be improvements to the software both for camera vision and radar that will make camera+radar perception good enough to support L3+ autonomous driving. And it is a logical assumption because computer software is improving all the time. We have already...
  36. diplomat33

    Waymo

    That is a pretty crazy move. Waymo performed it safely but I am not sure it was wise though. Ideally, I think you want to drive in a predictable way for other drivers. So if you start to make a right turn, you should complete the right turn as expected, not suddenly make a left turn in the...
  37. diplomat33

    Luminar’s largest customer: Tesla

    250 vehicles would be enough for a small robotaxi fleet. To put things in context, that is about the number of robotaxis that Waymo has in SF now. If these lidar are for the Tesla robotaxi, I think that would make sense. Tesla could be planning an initial production of ~250 robotaxis for the...
  38. diplomat33

    Waymo

    Yes, I think the increase in the number of fails is just statistical because we are seeing more miles. Waymo is doing millions of driverless miles now. It is inevitable that there would be some fails in that number of miles. Also, as I mentioned before, since Waymo is driverless that means there...
  39. diplomat33

    Luminar’s largest customer: Tesla

    What if these lidar are for the upcoming robotaxi vehicle to be unveiled on 8/8? Could Elon announce something like "we solved vision-only but to make regulators happy, the robotaxi will add lidar in order to provide additional redundancy for extra safety"?
  40. diplomat33

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I really hate the sudden, out-of-the-blue, red hands on wheel alert. They are just so jarring. You can be cruising along just fine and then suddenly the car is blaring at you to grab the wheel immediately. On my drive to work this morning I got 2 of them back to back that scared the crap out of...
  41. diplomat33

    [idea for] Vision only+personal HD Maps, custom routes?

    Honestly, I am not really sure how this would be any different from using the fleet to crowdsource maps. I mean if every Tesla is going to do this for their own personal routes, why not just upload it to the cloud and have crowdsourced maps that everybody can use? You even mention that people...
  42. diplomat33

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Motional delays the launch of a commercial driverless service to 2026 amid restructuring and layoffs: https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/07/motional-delays-commercial-robotaxi-plans-amid-restructuring/
  43. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    True but you do realize Tesla likely gets hundred of thousands of interventions per day, not all of them are safety critical. It is still a lot of feedback to sift through to find the critical interventions from the not critical.
  44. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    That's my point. Yes, they have more rare cases in their data but Tesla still needs to curate all that data to find the rare piece of data that helps the training the best. It is a lot of data to sift through. It is the needle in the haystack problem. Imagine if I gave you a million books and...
  45. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I think Tesla's data advantage is mostly in speeding up the first 90%. That is because Tesla can dump a ton of data that have a lot of common cases and quickly achieve ok driving everywhere in say 90% of cases pretty easily. I think we saw with the initial release of V12. Tesla was able to train...
  46. diplomat33

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Yes that is what he is saying. And it is why I always pushed back against the argument that Tesla would automatically win because they have billions of miles of data. Most of the billions of miles are useless. You can have other AV companies that have much less overall data than Tesla but they...
  47. diplomat33

    Waymo

    I do find these traffic violations (driving in bike lane and driving in bus only lane) to be a bit odd since we might assume that HD maps would automatically prevent these issues by labeling those lanes as off limits. So either the HD maps were wrong (the lanes were not correctly labeled in...