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  1. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    And other than the M3 (which is a long time ago with less Elon ego) none of those meant that production engineering was anywhere near complete or production installation had even started.
  2. D

    2024 Model 3 LR AWD is now eligible for the $7500 tax credit [posted 06/17/2024]

    Do the ones with the credit have more range? The Panasonic packs have a bit more energy than the LGs. I suspect the difference is more bureaucratic paperwork than a change in battery.
  3. D

    2024 Model 3 LR AWD is now eligible for the $7500 tax credit [posted 06/17/2024]

    No, the Treasury department loosened the interpretation of regulations to allow more Chinese graphite.
  4. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    I wouldn't recommend that. The newer cars have a different electrical system to accomodate the lithium ion accessory battery, which is a nominal 16V CATL NCM, not LFP. LFP has different voltage-current curve than lead acid and it wouldn't work right in an older car---the ohmmu has problems.
  5. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    Agree. I don't know the full algorithm, but when the lead acid is spontaneously losing charge the main battery will come on more often to charge it. But when the SOC of the main battery is low it probably stops trying to top off the 12V, and now the 12V runs down quick and died. Or the power...
  6. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    Potentially but distributed parked computers don't have that much value. The cases it could handle are limited---and useless unless there is at least high reliable download bandwith. The tasks have to be trivially paralellizable. The value would be large scale scoring/evaluation of models...
  7. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    High latency low reliability network connections aren't so useful for very large scale training. There's a good reason the highly intimately linked supercomputer NVidia boards binding coprocessors very tightly and other connections binding boards closely are preferred and most useful. This...
  8. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    He said that AI will not learn spatial reasoning purely from text and he is correct. The LLMs can sort of guess at some proxy to spatial reasoning when expressed through text on simple examples---and the GPT-4 system is opaque how it is trained but it is not only on text. LeCun does not...
  9. D

    18” photon (highland) wheels on M3P??

    tire compound, tread design and internal construction (and shape, i.e. wheel diameter a bit) influences rolling resistance. Amount of open area on tire + wheel strongly influences aerodynamics. Tires are always fully closed so going to smaller wheels improves aero unless your wheel is flat...
  10. D

    FSD tweets

    unless there's some sort of emergent property breakthrough (and that would be on training data size first) I conjecture first order scaling is going to be logarithmic in compute performance: like log(mistake_rate) = A - B*log log flops And you need the clean dataset size and model memory size...
  11. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Worried this might be like Elon doubling down on the Cybertruck, he's going to push on what he personally thinks is Cool but not appealing to the masses.
  12. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    https://www.hankooktire.com/us/en/tire/ventus/s1as-h125.html Material Code 10300060, 98V is the Tesla tire with foam and 8.5 tread depth. Material Code 1028523 98W is the non-foam generic tire with 10 tread depth.
  13. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    Which specific tire model? Hankook Ventus S1 A/S? There are indeed two distinct Hankook part numbers for 235/45R18. Only one is Tesla OEM with the foam---and lower tread depth for efficiency. So that can't be foam that is added after manufacturing.
  14. D

    FSD 12 causing flat tires (right rear)

    My theory: it's trained heavily on Model 3 data (most numerous) and doesn't adjust for car model. People who complain about hitting curbs seems to be Model Y, S and X, which are wider. It's taking the centerline as learned from human 3 drivers. It's been fine for me, but I have a 3.
  15. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Not good for taking luggage inside. Those upswing doors are expensive and prone to abuse damage and will hit a neighboring car or pole. And why low profile tires? Why not 16" with big fat rubber like in the old days? A traditional London Taxi is near the optimal configuration in the...
  16. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    I believe these are the same as the iON EVO---just the earlier name. I think you got an earlier manufactured tire at a giant discount.
  17. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    I'm disappointed the summer iON have no treadlife warranty at all. Even if were 35k or 40k vs 50k I would consider it. I drive in southern California and have no need for any snow or cold weather performance ever. That the summers have no treadlife warranty is Hankook signaling to me that...
  18. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    It's never a numerical issue. The issue is the type of people applying for those. History shows by far the best don't work at an environment with aggressive nasty leaders. They work at Bell Labs type or Los Alamos Labs with real scientists running the place and insulating the creators from...
  19. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    His personality and management is dissuading the high end ML scientists who have options. Who would choose Tesla over OpenAI, Anthropic, FAIR, Microsoft or Deep Mind? Particularly with Musk's ill informed hot takes and aggressive firing and chaotic demands. With musk running things more...
  20. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    My problem is that he changed, very significantly. Before about 2020 I thought he was a good business leader and worth investing with. Now I fear he will seriously damage or kill the only new Western car maker that has a chance of defending against the upcoming Chinese. I fear that he's...
  21. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    Being wrong isn't the problem. Being wrong and aggressively advertising it on Twitter is a clear sign of lack of personal discipline and judgment, consistent with similar behavior over the last 3 years. A proper way for someone in that position would be write a note privately to Apple...
  22. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    This is your CEOs brain: 🥚 This is your CEOs brain on drugs: 🍳🍳😵‍💫 Any questions?
  23. D

    Question: Best OEM or equivalent Tires for Model 3? - 05/2025 -

    Which size wheel? It's possible that Tesla has multiple suppliers competing for the business.
  24. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    the All Season version should have a tread life warranty. The discount tire website seems to have a glitch. Look on tirerack.com (which is owned by DT now).
  25. D

    Question: Best OEM or equivalent Tires for Model 3? - 05/2025 -

    The Michelin Primacy MXM4 has a "T1" annotated to its name technically for the Tesla specific one. The Hankook Ventus S1 AS, in 235/45R18 has a 98V load and the Tesla specific is the only one of that line with the "Soundabsorber" foam...
  26. D

    18” photon (highland) wheels on M3P??

    It's about 24-25 lbs for the tire. 18" aero wheels have less open total area (counting wheel & tire combined), and tire choices might be more efficient as well, particularly Hankook iON. The difference in efficiency between the 18" and 20" is more than the net weight of tire + wheel. The...
  27. D

    Hankook new iON tire, an "EV" tire (not the same as Kinergy GT)

    Low profile tires, never improve efficiency unless they're with solid moon wheels. I saw a study that tried to quantify this. The results were simple: more open area of wheel + tire, the less efficient aerodynamically. So given a fixed outer diameter, and that tires are always closed, higher...
  28. D

    Anyone used MICHELIN PRIMACY TOUR A/S Tires

    Primacy MXM4 A/S Primacy Tour A/S Primacy A/S are all different tire models. Yes, very confusing. Tesla used the 1st, which may now be winding down production. Tire introduced in 2010. It's efficient and only OK in other parameters. It's the third which is OEM on other EVs which has lousy...
  29. D

    Hankook new iON tire, an "EV" tire (not the same as Kinergy GT)

    The manufacturing trend towards enormous wheels and minuscule height tires is preposterous. The Lucid is the new Buick. A very nice Buick. Lean into that with thick meaty tires. Real luxury is "not needing expensive tire replacements and wasting my time". The upcoming Chevy Equinox EV will...
  30. D

    Anyone used MICHELIN PRIMACY TOUR A/S Tires

    Tesla didn't do the "Primacy A/S" though other automakers do. The main considerations for automakers are (1) cost (2) efficiency. Sometimes (3) noise (if a luxury car) or (4) performance (sports car). Bad weather and tire life and resistance to potholes have no importance to manufacturers...
  31. D

    Question: Best OEM or equivalent Tires for Model 3? - 05/2025 -

    New OEM 18" tire is Hankook Ventus S1 A/S. The tesla specific size (only) has the foam. I personally will be getting the iON. I bet they are a higher generation of tech.
  32. D

    Best tires for long range?

    I think what this is saying is that the compound is so efficient that the flexing doesn't dissipate much energy so it's not getting very hot, which increases the temperature of the air inside and the pressure.
  33. D

    Anyone used MICHELIN PRIMACY TOUR A/S Tires

    I bet they are all actually fairly different and come from different factories with different compounds. The plain "Primacy A/S" has such bad reviews from ordinary people I wonder if it's a cheapened out MXM4, used on many OEM EVs presumably for efficiency. Read somewhere that it has only one...
  34. D

    Anyone used MICHELIN PRIMACY TOUR A/S Tires

    Confusingly all these are different tire types from Michelin: Primacy MXM4 Primacy Tour A/S Primacy A/S Non-"Tour" Primacy A/S seem to be OEM tires on some other EVs, I think Ford Mach-E in some sizes...
  35. D

    FSD tweets

    When inevitably it doesn't have 1 intervention per year: Elon 2025: "you're intervening it wrong" c.f. iPhone 4: Jobs insisted on a particular metallic case/antenna design which the engineers told him would result in bad RF reception when people held it. Jobs insisted they go forward...
  36. D

    Hankook iON EVO All season tires with controlled efficiency testing

    I'm guessing they're OK in 3 seasons there but cold, wet & icy less likely. Historically there was a big tension between rolling resistance and wet/cold grip and MXM4 leaned heavily into rolling resistance. Maybe the new Hankook iON have cracked that. I'm in SoCal so I could run summers (as i...
  37. D

    xAI grok: Chat LLM

    I suspected so, the original Microsoft GPT-4 paper (on the internal research model) was impressive. I hope that someday the alignment can be incorporated in the large scale full train runs and embedded deep in the weights, retaining legitimate capability, instead of a post-processing lobotomy...
  38. D

    xAI grok: Chat LLM

    It's literally developers producing whatever the whims of Elon want at the moment. Just like Twitter/X. To me it's clear he fried his brain since 2018. I think that's when he started abusing amphetamines in the 2018 ramp-up crunch. Bragging about working so hard. Meth makes you feel like you...
  39. D

    Anyone used MICHELIN PRIMACY TOUR A/S Tires

    Right now in USA it's Hankook Ventus S1 AS 98V in 235/45R18
  40. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    What's amazing is that low rolling resistance matters more for lower speed driving and aero for high speed.
  41. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I don't think Elon makes wise decisions with significant foresight and engineering input any more. seems like a great idea. Of course they could try to make it and sell it to people with human driving first, but they aren't.
  42. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I really do wonder if the RT hardware platform will ever really take off, or that will be abandoned a few years in. I agree that it seems more feasible that once they have a mass production lower-cost car ready they'll try to make robotaxis off of it as it's easier to guarantee the machine...
  43. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    The problem with the RT self-driving is that there won't be extensive human driving with the same hardware to train it. The original goal, before Musk altered the deal, of making a new low cost platform for both human and robotic driving was the right one. Get manufacturing cheap, sell tons of...
  44. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    They have some 3d normalization now into a shared space so they aren't all independent views, so its not as bad as you think, but new cameras will still require tuning.
  45. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    The CT production turned out to be very different underneath than the CT demo, because the demo couldn't be manufactured or pass crash.
  46. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    on your other arm tirerack.,com, and hankooktire.com it does, though it is out of stock on tirerack.com i'd ask your website admins to check the database data and confirm
  47. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Elon got rid of it because of parts shortage during pandemic and ordered his engineers to deal with it. The vision had NOT at all improved enough to make the radar obsolete, and that shouldn't be Elon's call anyway. Elon lied about it that it was for performance when it obvious to people...
  48. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    I don't believe that he employee is correct. The summer tire versions don't have a tread warranty but the AS versions do with a 50K including the AS SUV. I really wonder if there's some commission to push Michelin? If not the iON I would do Pirelli PZero Elect unless you really need the...
  49. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    Unfortunate to hear. There is an upcoming Electricdrive 2, I presume an updated model, as the existing model doesn't seem so great. https://www.goodyear.com/en_US/tires/electricdrive-2/24947.html...
  50. D

    xAI grok: Chat LLM

    Elon saying something on a video is not a commitment given his history. He can make it a non-profit corporation and open source legally binding but did not---he raised money from VCs who want money back. When a youtube statement contradicts needs of powerful capitalists, which one wins? What...