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  1. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I did warn you guys, but all I got was abuse. I hope you all learn a lesson here. I hate to say I told you so.
  2. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not at all I love Tesla and Elon and all thing related, and think by 2022 they will have come through as as a major auto maker globally (milllions of cars a year). Cheese But the next 6 months to 2 years could destroy them unless they navigate well. Tomato I think they will though and will buy...
  3. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla has payments outstanding to supplier for all the parts they use to build the cars etc. They are at $4Bn which is normally ok as the have a short cash conversion cycle (selling cars and realising revenue). However with the factory closed this is going to be due soon.
  4. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I still have plenty in my long term account which I wont touch for over 10 years, my short term account though is long other stocks not short Tesla. Just warning you guys things are about to get rough for Tesla, don't say I didn't warn you. Stay safe guys.
  5. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please delete this post, doxxing is not cool.
  6. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is 10x worse than 2018 im afraid. Look at unemployment numbers. Tesla just scraped a profit in Q1 which was largely before Covid struck and mainly due to credits and that was with full demand. It's doubtful they will make another profit until things return to normal which which is...
  7. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The longer the factory is shut the more cash that's burned, they can make cutbacks but they still need to pay suppliers for all the parts they've used. Accounts payable is $4 billion and $2 billion is tied up in China so even if they burn $1 billion they are very close to the line. Remember...
  8. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nope, it means they are about to raise again. With Fremont closed till June they'll burn through billions. Demand could also drop over next 3-4 Q's leading to a cash crunch
  9. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ok you guys put your head in the sand and pretend everything is rosy. I'll leave you with this "Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the...
  10. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We are in unique times, I think Tesla is a great company, I'm just warning that we won't simply bounce back in 2 weeks as if nothing happened. The Fed is in panic mode trying to keep the market from cratering.
  11. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are doubts about China numbers as well 'Wuhan denying virus tests to keep numbers down' - RTHK
  12. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    China is back at 75% which is considered a depression. Also they are still mostly wearing masks and distancing, as soon as they stop that second wave happens. Way to early to comment on Europe, numbers are increasing, most countries are just entering full lockdown for months. US is just...
  13. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla will come out of this well, it might kill off some legacies and Tesla could buy their Marques
  14. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla will be less than $100 by summer. The obvious move is to liquidate now and buy back when things look better.
  15. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Futures are limit down, tomorrow will be a very bad day on the markets. (Not advice)
  16. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla have enough cash to ride out this disaster, but they will have much less cash when we come out of this, probably back to 2018 levels. Wondering if they will raise again or pull back on capex?
  17. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I meant that's the reason I am all cash.
  18. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    lol it's not going to sit bang on $450 all day, but will gravitate to it and try to close as closely as possible. I am back to all cash as Im worried for a torrent of bad news over the weekend and a crash on Monday.
  19. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Max pain is $450, and it's triple witching, it will circle around that all day. Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
  20. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm guessing market is moving toward max pain prices, think Tesla's is $480.
  21. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The California state wide stay at home order suggests Fremont will have to stop production today and rather than a few weeks it's open ended. I think we are looking at 2-3 months of no production.
  22. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think people need to be prepared for the factory being shut for months rather than weeks. It's wishful thinking that the virus wont ravage the US has it has Italy.
  23. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A little bit, not exactly reassuring.
  24. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I bough Tesla shares over the last few days,. not bashing just don't want them to risk lives.
  25. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I would wait 2-3 months before you even begin to think it's bottomed.
  26. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Starting nibbling back on shares, Sold everything at around $450. Will monitor and add as it drops, can't see any good news for the next few months but Tesla is safe and will weather this storm.
  27. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think Tesla have enough in the bank to ride it out, but it will delay their whole progress by up to a year. I think the stock price could go down to 2 digits if it get really bad.
  28. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I never said I knew it would close. I was just updating as I had asked the question before the opening yesterday about going to cash. I dont expect to pick the exact bottom. But I see a real risk of the price dropping to the recent (last year) local lows around $180 if factory imperiled...
  29. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If the factory is still closed when they release Q1 p&d it will have a huge dampening effect even if they are above expectations, is my worry.
  30. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I sold all my shares at open yesterday. With Fremont shutting down for indeterminate period I think we are going to see the stock drop. Will slowly buy back in as it hits lows.
  31. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's much clearer now this is going to damage the economy for many quarters.
  32. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's going to get much worse though, No way this is the bottom. I think Tesla will go below $200
  33. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Whats the thinking of going to cash then waiting a few months to get back in much lower?
  34. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah a $100 drop back then would have been huge, now it's 10 or so %
  35. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It was up overall though, thought it was down 10% from open?
  36. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Where did you hear about the Buffett rumour?
  37. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If there is a whale doing some heavy buying when would they need to declare it?
  38. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wouldn't pay 2k for that, but others might. Could generate a few tens of million onto the bottom line though. Range extending would be a good one for this.
  39. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ouch, I forsee a video for his client akin to this....
  40. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wonder how many he purchased, 18th January could be a dark day for Marky boy.
  41. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Many shorts will get margin calls tomorrow.
  42. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dropped to $373 after market, or is Yahoo finance not working. Update: Yes back to $382 now. Best close since i've been in the stock and Tesla are in a much better position now. I forsee a big run over the next decade.
  43. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is a long term stock, the quarterly results are noise. Look at the revenue YoY or better x3 YoY
  44. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seeing price fluctuate between 185 and 192 on Yahoo Finance.
  45. Ellec

    Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Jan 21, depends on the strike. But if it grinds lower or they have a few bad quarters theta could eat you up. However it's far enough out to catch a big rebound

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