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  1. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The data to train LLMs can be largely sourced from the internet, that is why many companies have LLM solutions. (A lot of that data is garbage.) The data to train FSD is mostly sourced from the fleet. YouTube videos may be marginally useful for those trying to train FSD via simulation. When...
  2. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As far as we know the 4680 ramp, is keeping pace with the CT ramp, and on track to achieve price parity with alternative cell supplies by the end of this year.
  3. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is exactly what I had in mind... The castings could be for entirely new models, so it could be a few years down the track. As for the rest of the list, there are a lot of economies from standardising on parts as far as possible across the entire vehicle range, eventually. For now, when...
  4. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What Model S/X eventually need is;- Front and rear castings? 4680 structural battery pack? 800V architecture - V2H 48V architecture Steer-by-wire, rear wheel steering, variable ratio. Brake-by-wire. Because these are lower volume models, I don't anticipate these changes anytime soon. I don't...
  5. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cybertruck is currently the Tesla model that is attracting celebrity interest. The new Roadster is coming. Model S/X are probably due for an overhaul when time and money are available With fewer people likely to own cars in future, ,perhaps the whole idea of car being a status symbol could...
  6. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Things are often mentioned once or twice, a lot of time passes, and they are often forgotten about. IMO the biggest example of that is the new compact models (?) that will be built on existing lines, probably Model Y lines. The Model Y refresh is probably Q1 2025, these new models possibly by...
  7. M

    Hydrogen Vehicles

    There is a US start-up Terraform aiming to make methane this way. They think they need solar at around $10 (USD)/MWh to achieve price parity with Fossil Fuels. They think (and I also think) solar will eventually cost around $10 (USD)/MWh, making all kinds of hydrogen based products viable...
  8. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can they still afford the Hamptons, or are they there cleaning the house before putting it on the market? :)
  9. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mod altered: No one has been banned. Stop the recent gossip, everyone.
  10. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Software is a major issue for VW, something they need to sort out ASAP. Software from Rivian might be a good solution.
  11. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After a quick scan I didn't see this video posted:- The significant information in the video is, the that there are strong rumours that Tesla has sorted out the DBE process for the Cathode, or at least made significant progress. There are reports about Tesla purchasing cathodes from LG in...
  12. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think that many of them made this decision because their could not make EVs which could compete with Tesla and Chinese EVs, and sell for prices with sufficient margin. Tesla cutting prices exposed their EV offerings as "bad value for money", especially after the Chinese made similar moves...
  13. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The push to get the extension finished at Austin and training compute installed for HW4 could be because the Robotaxi revealed on 8/8 should use HW4. Hence initial Robotaxi operations could be HW4 using vehicles that don't have a steering wheel, hence no safety driver. But probably with remote...
  14. M

    Tesla Master Plan 2, 3 & 4

    I am surprised that there is a master plan 4. It probably means that the mission is going to be more broadly defined, Yes, there will be a lot of focus on AI and Robots, but we already know that. Will the mission be extended to other areas?
  15. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree, but we could be talking about an additional $60,000 ($100/kWh) for the high nickel version of the SR Semi,
  16. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If the 500 mile range Semi is high nickel. the 300 mile version can be LFP. A lower cost truck is probably more important that more range or more cargo capacity. IMO there will be more 300 mile versions sold, because that range is adequate for many tasks.
  17. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Raw materials or batteries for an Optimus are unlikely to be the problem. Production lines are likely to be compact and can simply be duplicated. The hard part will be convincing Optimus to help build more Optimus. I can use an Optimus ASAP to feed the cats when we go on holidays :) To be...
  18. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I find it ironic that the same people who often complain about "slow progress", also complain abut quick pivots, "changed plans", changed messaging, and chaotic decision making. Rapid progress requires someone like Elon making quick and bold decisions when necessary. This isn't necessary at...
  19. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMO Elon may take more of a backseat role when he is happy that certain outcomes have been achieved:- The next wave of growth Robotaxis and Optimus Robots Gen3 cars including models cheaper than a comparable ICE car. Scaling of batteries and energy storage to Master Plan 3 goals. All other...
  20. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We will not know how Waymo stacks up against FSD until Tesla launches an FSD based Robotaxi service in a city where Waymo operates. That day is coming. Is Waymo profitable at present? By that I mean 100% self-funding and profitable, earning profits which contribute to the Google bottom line...
  21. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How many earnings calls, investor days, product reveals, design and engineering meetings did Elon attend in that time? I suspect Elon logged at least 50 hours working for Tesla in an average week 2021-2024. And it is more about outcomes achieved 2021-2024. We have had a complete revision of...
  22. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is what the latest IPCC report says:- In this case, very high confidence doesn't actually inspire much confidence. Unless you are claiming that a liveable and sustainable future isn't important. As for the numbers, there is a lot of expensive real estate on earth and a fair chunk of...
  23. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The likely ROI is not needing to pay drivers to drive cars under the highway. IMO 5-10 minutes per car, (return trip) 500,000 cars per year, 20 years. The Boring Company needed to test Prufrock-3, this would have been a "mates rates" job. My best guess would be Tesla just covering Boring...
  24. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Disagree, not because Musk is perfect, but because he is the best option for now. I think there will probably be a time when the negatives outweigh the positives. but that will be when all of the major engineering a design problems have been solved. For now I think there are still critical...
  25. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good for the mission. The CT and Rivian are sufficiently different to appeal to a wide range of buyers. I don't see any real problem with CT demand. different customers will have different preferences.
  26. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You have probably got enough time to binge watch one of those Netflix series... :)
  27. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sometimes customers end up buying a car the carmakers need to sell, rather than what is best for that customer. Many car companies need to sell hybrids rather than EVs at present ,and it is still possible to convince some customers to buy a hybrid. After owning a hybrid for 5 years, and...
  28. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We save $100 per week driving 2 EVs and mostly charging on our own solar, (petrol was $120 per week driving 2 ICE cars) That pays for a lot of $10 per month, and lots of things are $10 per month these days, I intend to have FSD drive me around in my own car, when I am too old or lazy to drive...
  29. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I always assume Tesla are dong to do what they say they are going to do unless. 1) It is a bad idea, or 2) it is very hard to do. 1) This looks like a great idea to me, and sometimes challenges and limitations force companies to find great solutions. 2) I can't see why this would be...
  30. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wonder if all new Tesla vehicles will have an 800V/48V architecture. The CT battery pack can split in half to charge at 400V, but the native mode is 800V charging. If think this possibly impacts on the Supercharger rollout, because deploying more V3 Superchargers might not be a future-proof...
  31. M

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I wonder if the US is considering giving assistance to Africans fighting against Russia in Africa. Some of the money to fund the war in Ukraine comes from Russian pillaging of resources like gold in African countries. Russian military efforts are stretched, and this is perhaps an opportunity...
  32. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My impression is Xai is mainly developing Grok and similar LLM products similar to the AI Microsoft, Google, Apple and others are developing. Mainly to do with words, text and speech. Tesla AI is mainly in the vision space FSD, occupancy networks, object recognition for Optimus. It would be...
  33. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps what was really wrong with the 4680 program was the initial timeline and sketchy details of what would be achieved when, But they have fallen a long way short of production volume targets that were stated. At one time Drew walked back expectations stating that many of the Battery Day...
  34. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I doubt it, 100% of his net worth is probably tied up in Tesla shares. :)
  35. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is certainly a lot more comfortable to ride in, and has a lot better handling than a regular truck, No product can satisfy 100% of buyers in a particular segment, It will work as a truck for some people. Many that work in construction here drive similar vehicles, Most building materials...
  36. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sometimes taking a job isn't just about money, the additional factors are;- Interesting / challenging work. Building the skill set / resume. Working in a good culture, with capable team members, and minimal politics. The mission. Employee benefits including shares. The average salary doesn't...
  37. M

    Another $5000 price drop. Model Y entry point now $58,251

    Not so sure about superior EV's in and out, but they will get there. It is hard for one carmaker to cover all of the market, Toyota managed that by creating the Lexus brand. At the higher end, Tesla will compete with Roadster, Model S, Model X, Tri-motor Cybertruck and performance Model 3/Y...
  38. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On a bus or a train you are probably sharing with a stranger, and the seat may be smaller. This ticks most of the boxes for what I hoped to see, and what I expected to see, Narrow frontal area means less drag and hence fewer kWh per mile. So I may be in the minority, but I hope the final...
  39. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, top priority for the Chinese is energy independence which means no imported fossil fuels. Beyond that Tesla is a very good example for Chinese EV makers to copy and compete against. A term used in sport is "iron sharpens iron", to become the best, you need to compete against the best...
  40. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What has occurred to me is:- Circumstances changed Strategy changed. Financial pruning was necessary. Elon started getting more involved, and then started digging deeper. When the macro environment was good, interest rates were low, all projects seemed to be on track, there was not an urgent...
  41. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It think it is more like "we can't match the Chinese without the unboxed method, Optimus and perhaps 4680s". New technologies like Robotaxis will have higher margin due to less competition. In the meantime the technology basis for cheaper EVs can be proven and de-risked. And the final stage...
  42. M

    Supercharger - Springwood, QLD

    Rochedale was fairly busy during holiday times (personal observation - limited visits). It could be that the Springwood charger is an alternative to expanding Rochedale?
  43. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    An important consideration is if Elon believed the statements were true when he made them. An another important consideration is if those targets are eventually hit, even though that is several years after the originally predicted dates. IMO any pivot that happened, was due to Elon now seeing...
  44. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There a battery types that support electric flight that may be in some working (flying) porotypes:- Lyten (probably not in prototypes) CATL Condensed battery - claimed to be in a 1-ton prototype, I would guess around 2035-2040, given that approval to fly might take a while.
  45. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMO this definitely happens:- --------------------------------------------------------- And this probably doesn't happen:- I think FSD and Optimus will be reasonably successful at Tesla even without Elon. But for moral and pragmatic reasons, including self-interest, I think shareholders...
  46. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree that shareholders should honour the original deal, and that Tesla is far better off with Elon fully engaged. But Elon has no control over assets and AI IP owned and developed by Tesla. If he tries to stop AI development at Tesla, that may lead to a showdown where the board and/or...
  47. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is an CATL Official site on YouTube, I think that is where Viking is getting most of his information. Many of the videos are in Chinese with English subtitles. I am waiting for someone like Limiting Factor to do a deep dive and put some of the CATL claims in context. I think Jordan is...
  48. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    For something less speculative, here is Jordan's latest video:- As usual, well worth watching.
  49. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    My original guess about the big tanks on the on the East side of the new extension at Austin was paint, which turned out to be comically wrong. Undeterred I'm going to try another guess and hope that it doesn't end as badly. - heat storage. Dojo will produce a lot of waste heat. if that heat...
  50. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm a bit wary of these media sources. But I also wonder "why not do both"? Elon seems laser focused on cost reduction at present. However, Tesla didn't get to where they are today be giving up easily, IMO the 4680 project could make a breakthrough at anytime and/or competitors prices for...