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  1. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is huge if true, it highlights that the 4680 has been supported by the 2 tier2 chinese component makers but it is news to me that LG was also supply cathode. Interesting. The biggest news was this was tied to Drew's departure and I absolutely believe that. 2 years ago listening to...
  2. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is curious from a business point of view that the state that made EVs possible (and it was state regs in CA that did that) is ignored or ...taken for granted by Tesla's bod. Are half of all Tesla sales in CA? How much in TX? Does Tesla have so much market share in CA that they can drive...
  3. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The grid is so fantastic and profitable that only 1000+ people froze to death the last cold snap.
  4. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yes, all day long, constant never ending posting. Who knew we were listening to a billionaire.
  5. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seriously look it up yourself, only dozens of articles. Its not hard ...something called google.
  6. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    move it to the FSD threads, this is the wrong place.
  7. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, we know that in order to ramp 4680 production Tesla had to abandon attempts to supply cathode coils and import 3rd party. Something CATL and BYD would not do. So yes they "ramped" but no they didn't at the same time. Now you have a few thousand CTs out there with batteries that are risk...
  8. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    remember though that Tesla has been assembling 4680s with cathode components from 3rd parties in China. That CATL and BYD refused to provide just components. Thus I'd also add some risks associated there, if CATL felt it was risky (they described it as a risky process) than we may see some...
  9. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yes, just like the reports from Mexico...it's all the MMs controlling Tesla share price. It's nothing to do with the fact that Tesla canceled Mexico or that they delayed the RT til Oct. Who was the source of the original leak? By chance was it Tesla? It's a classic K street maneuver.
  10. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He literally never does it. Stop denigrating others. You were wrong, you said something amazingly stupid. Fess up to it and stop digging.
  11. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some people do nothing but post all day, about things they know nothing about. The lack of facts does not bother them, post post post post.
  12. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Of course they were not the shorts you're discussing here. They had far better odds if it fell. In some of the bonds they quoted 250:1.
  13. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    110 heat index for us in Virginia yesterday, 1/2 day with chainsaw and that's all I can take.
  14. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Its just down the road from GF1 if you want to see how it proceeded there are lots of videos out there.
  15. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FSD improvement has to be slow and marginal at this point. It is just the reality of chasing improvements. EM timelines on FSD have been meme worthy they are so bad, as he admits.
  16. N

    Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

    Rewilding is basically my life, our little company works just in eastern NA hardwood forests, we recreate native forests (mostly oak-hickory ) and it is a struggle. The challenge of raising money to do the sort of work we do is brutal. VCs say they care but what they really want to do is fund...
  17. N

    Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

    Oh we'll get the food...it's the destruction of the natural world that concerns me. If we can't grow wheat it means there are thousands of native grasses and plants that will go extinct, then 10's of thousands of insects, then huge numbers of birds, reptiles, etc that feed on the insects that...
  18. N

    Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

    Post like the one on wheat are hyperbole. They'll shift from wheat to corn or soybeans or oil seeds. Wheat is grown because they can't typically grow corn/soy because it is too cold or dry. Farmers won't go bankrupt.
  19. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Convoys add huge complexity and risk, it's like trying to automate a bad process. Don't. Eliminate it. As was pointed out earlier Aurora is developing a automated trucking solution, currently they focus on travel between distribution nodes. Can you imagine a 300' wall of trucks that can't...
  20. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They are doing well actually. I've met a few leaders there. It's why I think it's not a stretch to get driverless Semi's doing very consistent routes.
  21. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The convoy idea is just complete garbage. Anytime someone mentions putting a 300' vehicle on the road.you have to scratch you head and say really? The problems with it are incredible and it is bizarre that it keeps getting discussed. We'll have autonomous trucks before we have convoys.
  22. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Further to the point above, 50k semis removing 100 gallons of diesel / day (may be an aggressive number) for 220 days/year would remove 1.1bln gallons of diesel. The average large refinery is using 500k barrels of oil/day producing 6,300,000 gallons of diesel (30% of the oil is refined into...
  23. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Priced in or not it is a relief to finally see steel getting delivered for that project. The Semi has the potential to have the greatest impact of any vehicle on sustainability. It removes diesel demand and that in the world of refinery processes is a game changer. If we can get 100k electric...
  24. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is absolutely key for the mission. I agree that in the short term it might be lower margins than some other products but I think over time it will be a profit generator. It will mostly be fleet sales and that, like megapacks, means large customers willing to pay more for something...
  25. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also the best Russell's are bought out by S&P500s
  26. N

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Yes Uber...one of the worst investments of capital in the modern history, better than wework but...still. Surprised Softbank didn't buy it all.
  27. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not in Reno it doesn't, you can see how long it took to grade and build the GF right next door. They have done nothing for 2 years. GF1 was graded, built, and occupied by then.
  28. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Energy wasn't slow to develop actually. The waiting list of buyers was huge, projects usually had 2 year lead times. When I retire one day I will write a case study on this topic, I was tracking it as it happened. EM made his choice, it was to fund FSD at the expense of everything else, Semi...
  29. N

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    So with more cameras..huh...who would have guessed 😃
  30. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, I'd agree that is how EM sees things. Tesla had an opportunity in 2016 but alas...gone. Robots & FSD are not mission aligned, imo. It would never have interested me.
  31. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Qilin is a prismatic cell, higher energy density than others, they have kept innovating and now Tesla has licensed the IP for use at GF Nev. Google is your friend, lots of info is only in Chinese. Translate works fairly well. If this is a surprise you haven't been paying attention. They...
  32. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually I strongly agree with you. I led investigations into various Toyota conglomerate entities shenanigans with price fixing and the like in the early 2000s. Not breaking any confidences but I would agree that the top is rotten. Also they are the largest backer of all the anti climate...
  33. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh so they are finally not moving backwards? Great. Using 3rd party cathode coils. Great. 15% less energy than a CATL cell? Oh somehow we skipped that.
  34. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I mean that is the guy has "missed" his FSD estimates for almost a decade. BILLIONS. Put a discount rate on those $, bring them forward. BILLIONS. Now we just need a massive new datacenter. Oh and don't ask what happened to Dojo because dojo is dead and buried in the sandy loam of Austin...
  35. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Maybe it will turn out to be a win. So far Tesla is getting 4680s by importing the cathode coils from 2nd tier producers in China . BYD and CATL both turned down Tesla on this as they viewed it as too risky, instead they wanted Tesla to buy completed cells. In the meantime CATLs prismatic...
  36. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think nobody's brand matters in RT services and you must agree that Tesla doesn't offer RT services. They have poured billions into an attempt to produce a vehicle that drives itself at level 4/5 capability. They don't supply a RT. Further, the ability of the car to drive and RT are two...
  37. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've parked 2 trucks. Now just pretty much driving the Lightning. 52k miles so far and trouble free, the biggest issue was it shipped with passenger car tires which..on gravel... got flats at an alarming rate. For gravel you have to switch to LT tires which are heavier and we lose a touch of...
  38. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's kind of the thing Toyota doesn't do normally. They make a quality product. It's what they do. The Tundra line has been flawed from the get go though. Sort of a vanity project to try to compete with the big 3 in large pickups.
  39. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Recently I have wondered if the whole battery day project was simply an exercise to put pressure on Pano and LG to produce 4680s faster. After battery day they both announced plans to build factories for the new format and both had much longer time horizons than Tesla. In retrospect an alarm...
  40. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In regards to RT you are backwards, nobody has every ridden in a Tesla RT. Nobody cares what brand RT they ride in, it's a freaking taxi. Waymo had a 100k person waiting list from just 2 cities. Cruise had no issues with brand awareness. Do you honestly think Teslas name is going to make a...
  41. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry to hear. Should have bought the Ford.
  42. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    re 4680....you jest? We now know how large the 4680 team was. Tiny. We know CATL would have put 10x the team on it. So would Pano and LG and indeed they all have staffed 4680 development at much higher levels than Tesla. We know that CATL has 4680s with higher energy density, we'll see...
  43. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, Tesla has over the last ..well almost a decade focused on FSD to the exclusion of almost all other investment opportunities. This includes the 4680 which was starved, the energy storage side of things which went no where for years, etc. There are always alternatives, for the FSD...
  44. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Kodak is a particularly interesting case because they had seen digital photography coming, had prepared a broad patent defense, but...instead of investing heavily they listened to a small group of marketing people inside Kodak whose users said they preferred paper for fidelity. So they make a...
  45. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If I remember correctly your family went on to have some role in PPG? One wonders ...what journey took you to the far north.
  46. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Second the recommendation on the Corning Museum.
  47. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A couple of those got sucked into defending market share in illegal monopoly actions, ibm just never regained its mojo after the culture was impacted by this. Intel fell into the same trap. You know a really neat company that has taken a basic industrial product, ceramics, and extended it...
  48. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Which completely ignores the fact that Ford did not get bailed out like GM. They saw everything coming in 2007/8 and mortgaged the company to raise $ to survive. Chrysler and GM both went bankrupt while Ford did not. So, to lump Ford in with those 2 is a gross insult to everyone at Ford.
  49. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anybody that doesn't have CATL at the top of the list for battery storage providers is....nuts. They are already winning some of the largest deals in the USA and have the greatest capacity in the world.
  50. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OEMs were, in many ways, right about the other things though. That's part of the reason Tesla growth slowed.