Separate names with a comma.
you should release them. and please private message me when you do. i'm a reasonably good analyst but i stand humbled by your excellent long...
twitter case study is a good one. there is a pool of hedge funds that does index arb trading, and some large cap managers who take active...
i've been off the forum for a while but still have my modeling for the company. i attached an update below. street estimates still look too low...
i feel fortunate to get even 1-2 quarters right and thus could be rightfully accused of short-termism when it comes to forecasting.
1 warranty issue is sort of a non-issue. warranty reserving levels are lower than they have been, but it also seems appropriate due to better...
most of what you said is correct - however, there are index members going in and coming out all the time. so usually it's quite soon after the...
i think you got it right. there was an economic improvement that amounts to about 2% gross margin on the whole auto business. it appears to 0.4%...
one of my biggest misses in a long time. here's the actual numbers, i often do a comparison but as i spend less time on tesla in general i just...
correct - the asp is inclusive of zev/non-zev credits. since i include credits on a separate line, the pro-rata share has to be backed out to get...
i view steep drops in a prior quarter as not stopping at a flat line. it takes a while for the full effect of the drop to flow through a complete...
agree, but i think it still carries opex and losses around the income statement. i have spoken to solar installers who have seen the solar roof...
i thought about my numbers again. units are up slightly but more than offset by the combination of higher leasing and lower asp. that's what i am...
this may call for an update on my side. do you have a reference for this? i do a linear estimate from mw installed and i've felt my method is...
solar mw deployed have dropped every quarter on a y-o-y basis every quarter since the solar city acquisition. solar mw deployed has also dropped...
you lose 140m in revenue at 20% gm is like 28m in gross profit but you also lose 90m in one-time charges. that's about 60m. i also have modeled...
updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post. a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages...
inside-evs posted usa s/x estimates and they are quite a bit lighter than i thought. so my estimates for s/x deliveries at 19k likely too high....
on asp, i have mentioned it before but worth repeating: the s/x asp the way it is calculated in my model is everything in auto that is not model...
i think it's potentially quite a bit more than that. days payables outstanding were very low at the end of last quarter. inventory likely goes...
best guess: past one time autopilot i think was around 35m for a major feature. there are now many more vehicles but perhaps smart summon is a...
it's not shown but i assume ~10% for s/x and ~7% leased for model 3. i just run solar revenue off some multiple of mw's installed and my methods...
my estimates indicate a large stepdown in asp from 19q1 to 19q2. in my experience usually the shift is not fully realized in a single quarter...
updated model for ~99k total deliveries based on today's email. the 110k order rate number is fantastic and just as important as the delivery...
just noticing today's news about end of quarter incentive changes. Tesla changes end-of-quarter incentives after some 'abuse' - Electrek i find...
on the delivery estimates, the best forecasting method i know is to use known/estimated deliveries to date from various sources, then make...
delivery estimates: 19k s/x, 84k model 3. model 3 could range 80-90k based on level of back-end loading. they've been swearing up and down that...
tl;dr structural tailwinds due to accounting and business facts will push a lot of profit down to the bottom line. lately i have been thinking...
in the best of all possible worlds i agree. however there is some flex around exactly how milestones are defined, or how tight the performance of...
ok after some further work, i think netting out all the one time effects i can think of, the auto gross margin did improve about 2%. whew that...
warning: extremely boring post about deferred revenue. drink coffee first. tl;dr: much of tesla's claimed increase in automotive gross margin...
i need some help. probably @brian45011 , @neroden , @ReflexFunds, or @Fact Checking could help. first refer to stock-based compensation table in...
sigh... reading this in the prior 10q: Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other...
here's an interesting little gimmick in the letter. Excluding regulatory credit revenue, automotive gross margin improved by ~200bp (compared to...
yes but some of the income you see from solar above the operating income line is included in tesla's operating income but belongs to someone else,...
that tax credit and inventory purge pushed q2 units up. you can rework numbers easily with a higher assumption.
here's a relatively optimistic look-ahead to q3. i don't believe the numbers i put for deliveries for model 3; i am thinking they will be lower...
generally the term "average selling price" refers to a price at which a product was sold to a customer. the credit sales are going to some 3rd...
my asp includes credits, which are ~1.2k per vehicle
just did a very fast update with the numbers in the letter. showing actual vs my forecast. note my error on operating income was ~15m, or ~0.2%...
thanks for sharing. looks like main difference on revenue is 5% extra leasing assumed by me for model 3 and roughly 2% lower gross margins than...
this link had a summary of the fca call: Fiat Chrysler to spend $2 billion on CO2 fines and credits Last year FCA had cash outlays, between...
in the current condition, i don't agree. all my cost estimates put the sr+ in a range of probably not gaap profitable and at best marginally cash...
i didn't keep up on this news closely, so i will have to defer to @EinSV 's presentation . i thought the news i saw valued it around a few...
my understanding is you can't sell a credit in two different region for a car sold in only one region. that is, a car that sells in europe gets a...
it doesn't seem to me like they are close to profits. what it looks like is that demand isn't there unless mix is taken down to lower units, but...
i would say no, at this point it is not just lower production numbers. 18q4 and 19q1 both had production numbers over 60k. the surprise for me...
all valid points. i think the most important idea to me was that in this "monster" quarter with (even more) optimistic assumptions i could not...
hello friends. i haven't been spending so much time on tesla. just wanted to post a quick update with what i feel are fairly optimistic delivery...
we do differ on thoughts on margin. my counter: on model 3 they had trouble improving margins in q4. since then they cut prices, introduced...
gaap earnings and net change in cash