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  1. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TeslaQ folk on Twitter are questioning whether the brakes are stock. I wonder if the calipers are a cataloged Tesla part, available to anyone who happens to have the right part number . . .
  2. Rashomon

    I am wondering whether the new lithium 12v battery in Plaid will fit M3 or MY

    All motorcycle lithium-ion batteries are LFP (lithium ferrous phosphate, commonly called lithium-iron) chemistry. They’re optimized for power, as you may need 100 to 400 amps to get through the first compression stroke during ICE engine starting. LFP is great for power and safety, but falls off...
  3. Rashomon

    New 2021 Model S Unveiled January 27, 2021

    yes, they have adopted the steering system of a 1972 Citroen SM. Don’t believe me? Look it up.
  4. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm sure Tesla will make as much use of the shutdown as possible to clean up and upgrade production processes where possible. But you have to keep in mind that things like enormous stamping machines and the largest die-casting machines in the US have very long lead-times and are custom orders...
  5. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm 75 percent reinvested, perhaps prematurely. Saving the 25 percent cash to see what happens over the next week or three. My IRA is down about 15 percent from its February peak, instead of the 40 percent or so if I hadn't cashed out. The 15 percent paper loss is from trying to catch a few...
  6. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The US pandemic is a couple of weeks behind Italy, and by the end of March, the macros are going to be horrific. It's impressive how well TSLA is holding up, but I expect before the overall situation starts improving, TSLA may dip below 600 -- at least I have a buy order in at 588. It's a fight...
  7. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's not cancelled; the press event was delayed because of Corona virus concerns. It's so far in advance of production (next year) that GM doesn't have a lot of urgency with the event. Cadillac postpones reveal of EV over coronavirus concerns
  8. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So think of the good news: Tesla won't have to reserve soon for Musk's 2nd incentive stock grant . . .
  9. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My IRA is looking quite green (at least for the moment) after buying back into TSLA at 615 this morning. I went to almost all cash 10 days ago as it became clearer that the Corona virus would not be contained. I'm prepared to cost average down on TSLA, as this purchase may have been premature...
  10. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not quite. The announcement was of EVs that would be available through 2025. It was certainly backloaded, with some arriving late, but some of the new platform EVs, such as the Hummer, will be available in late 2021. The Cadillac Lyric wagon/SUV will be sold in China in 2021 and in the US in 2022.
  11. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I found the question about the single-crystal materials at 58:12 fascinating. Paraphrasing, "If you want this, once the Corona virus is gone, get on an airplane and go to China. It's fully commercialized there. In North America, forget about it -- we're so far behind . . ."
  12. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It could have its companion Elon Bust fund, to fill the TSLAQ niche . . . /s
  13. Rashomon

    Coronavirus

    I already have a tweet that Corona virus may do more for the Social Security trust fund than any politician /s
  14. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mild hybrids are just that: slightly electrified ICE cars. They’re cheap to make; the current preferred tech is a 48v motor/generator replacing the alternator, often belt driven, and a slightly higher capacity 48v battery replacing the 12v system. You can do start/stop when the car isn’t moving...
  15. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is no reason to let another major automaker into the Supercharger network until charging networks are largely a commodity, and not a competitive advantage, something that we're unlikely to see until past 2024 or even later. Now if Ferrari or some other small exotic maker wanted to join...
  16. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Keep in mind that the deaths in China are running about 1/3 women, 2/3 men. Very few Chinese women smoke, roughly 50 percent of Chinese men do. Perhaps a congestive lung disease might prove more dangerous to people who have previously damaged their lungs, eh?
  17. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm assuming Tesla acquired SilLion on the available evidence. I also assume the SilLion team in Colorado has been working with Maxwell and Dahn's lab for awhile. We'll hear more in April, and until then here are some promotional tidbits from SilLion prior to the acquisition. The Highest Energy...
  18. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. I designed the first LFP starter battery to be used as standard in a production ICE motor vehicle more than a decade ago. It weighed 25 percent of the high-performance lead-acid alternative -- even though lead-acid is surprisingly good in power applications. LFP has many advantages in...
  19. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Single-crystal parts in gas turbines are used as much for creep resistance than anything else; parts where the operating metal temperature is not all that far from the liquidus temperature and are also heavily loaded tend to grow, and that's right into the shrouds for turbine blades. Chocochip...
  20. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I read from a power electronics analyst that the companies that made drivetrains for electric locomotives ended up controlling a lot of the mid-power electric-generation/control-electronics/etc. business, and that he expected the same thing in the sub-megaWatt space with Tesla and other emerging...
  21. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wouldn’t the reduction in interest expense from the capital raise accelerate when Tesla has to change their tax loss accounting, providing a double positive bump to GAAP earnings? That is, the interest reduction plus the tax loss benefit accrual?
  22. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The former SilLion CEO ended employment at SilLion in June 2018. He claims credit for the successful sale of the company. Musk might have been visiting, but the timing isn’t right for the acquisition.
  23. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another SilLion/Tesla connection, but not one that proves anything other than perhaps SilLion has been preserved as a subsidiary of Tesla (consistent with the SilLion currently having a President but no CEO). Also interesting the title change from Research Scientist to Research Engineer: Perhaps...
  24. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Engineering Technician Tesla is looking to hire in Louisville, Colorado, should be familiar with silicon anode materials. We know that SilLion was acquired by a large, international tech company. We know that Tesla is looking for a hire at their approximate location, a person familiar with...
  25. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Background information on SilLion: SiILion | Company Week It certainly seems like something that Tesla would want to own, if the technology worked. The former CEO noted improvements were needed in charge rate and cold-weather performance, as of 2018.
  26. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The question is whether these people are currently Tesla employees: BTW, LinkedIn says SilLion is looking for a battery technician ... SilLion was claiming their tech took battery energy density to 350Wh/kg.
  27. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is interesting, and the rear structure formed of castings is larger than I expected. But it is not from a single casting, nor am I sure this video gets the exact extents of the aluminum rear structure correct. The transverse and longitudinal beams are almost certainly separate castings...
  28. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have been investing in li-ion companies since VLNC in the 90s, and have been actively working with li-ion cell suppliers since 2007. No industry has more vapor or hype, something that Musk and Staubel have commented on publicly before. Tesla has been a voice of sanity amidst the hype on cell...
  29. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There may be some strange things coming to deal with the legacy supply issue. I could imagine new base versions of S & X continuing to use 18650s from the existing Panasonic lines (while offering the current range), while new pricier LR and Plaid versions get entirely new pack designs with new...
  30. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There was no mention of the cell length in the article, only the diameter. Perhaps the cells are longer if they're intended for mainly the Semi and CyberTruck. Tesla's recent patent shows modules with cells perpendicular to planar surfaces, so it's difficult to see how the cells could be longer...
  31. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla has been telegraphing since the semi announcement, and even more so with the CyberTruck, that it expects battery cost to plummet. Battery Day is going to be interesting indeed.
  32. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Current cells are 250Wh/kg. The new cells are rumored to be about 320Wh/kg. Tesla’s current packs are fairly heavy beyond the cell weight. The new module patent with current collectors integrated into the cell structure would allow a lighter battery pack beyond the cell weight reduction.
  33. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents The implications are the new cells might be 40mm diameter by perhaps 70mm long, with an energy density of 320Wh/kg, and a price well under $100/kWh. Of course, it may all be BS.
  34. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That’s a very good question. Aerodynamic drag is proportional to the frontal area (A) times the coefficient of drag (Cd in the US and Britain, Cx in Europe). The frontal area has probably increased by almost 15-20 percent, and it’s extremely unlikely the Cd decreased by more than 5 percent, if...
  35. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    ATH today might be really interesting if we end up strong at close. Other big rise days have seen covering in ATH trading, and a continued rise . . .
  36. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    2170s are the preferred form factor for ebikes and other ultra-lightweight electric vehicles. That’s more than 10gWh if you assume more than 20m worldwide production...
  37. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, which implies that the battery cost will be even less than $100/kWh, at the pack level!
  38. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The $20K cost delta between the AWD Cybertruck with 300-mile range and the 3-motor Cybertruck with 500-mile range strongly implies that Tesla's battery cost will be around $100/kWh at the pack level in 2022 . . . There's something like a 80-100 kWh pack capacity difference between the two models...
  39. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And, of course, battery cost dropping sharply will improve margins on M3 and MY, and allow price reductions to tailor demand.
  40. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cost reductions often come from energy density improvements. It costs roughly the same to make a high-energy cell, but you need fewer of them in a pack. So count on both energy density changes and manufacturing efficiencies to be discussed. I sharply increased my Tesla holdings after CyberTruck...
  41. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    High-pressure die-casting is a very high run-rate process (40 per hour per machine for a larger casting is not unusual) and is frequently used in automotive production: transmission case castings, instrument panel beams, etc. Unless you use the high-vacuum variant of the process, though, you end...
  42. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can This Image Confirm Tesla Model Y Will Have Single Cast Body Frame? Definitely apply Betteridge's Law of headlines (if a headline is a question, the answer is "no"). Sandy Munro thought the model 3 trunk area was one of the more stupid designs he'd ever seen. According to Sandy, Musk has...
  43. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Every indication is that Tesla will produce their own cells. Not only did they buy Maxwell, with unique dry-electrode technology, they also bought Hibar systems, a Canadian battery manufacturing tech company. It's the Grohmann purchase all over again. Musk plans to be using multi-TWh of cells in...
  44. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Kk mom in I think it's likely pilot lines for Tesla cells have been running some time now. It takes a lot of testing to be sure a cell is ready for multi-year automotive use. And I think we've already seen some of these -- the plaid Model S's running in Germany were likely running cells and...
  45. Rashomon

    All engineering topics (out of main)

    I beg to disagree. While Tesla's PMAC motors for the 3 are the best automotive motors available, they're a long way from what is possible. Some of the best motor design work in the world is being done in the US, and the torque and power density achieved make hub motors very interesting.
  46. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In The unbundling of the automobile will diminish, not eliminate, car ownership. Rural and far suburban car ownership will continue largely as is. But for urban residents, with many new options and increasing penalties for car ownership (particularly in the EU) car ownership will plummet...
  47. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I sold a few shares at 380 & 400 as Tesla is a high percentage of my portfolio. But I bought that back and more at 443. The next two to three weeks are going to be interesting, as they say. Every indication is that earnings are going to be exceptional.
  48. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hey, the transportation market is huge. About $4 trillion or so, last I looked. But that very diverse market (freight, airlines, trains, cars, service, parts, etc.) is not what you should be comparing to Apple’s business if you want a meaningful comparison. The telecom market is fairly similar...
  49. Rashomon

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You need to be careful in calculating market size. The auto/light truck market in the US is about 17m units with an average transaction price of about $35k. Apple sells about 220m iPhones a year at about $700 apiece. The iPhone market is 25 percent the size of the US auto market. Considering...

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