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  1. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    But sir (or ma'am) this is a Tuesdays.
  2. M

    Noob option trading questions

    1. Was just speaking to general position type, didn't check OI or Vol 2. Put spread pays out 2,135 on 2,500 at risk, $365 worst case loss, so ~6x return. The call return % varies greatly depending on the opening price.
  3. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Hallowell had two compressors in series and reportedly poor lubrication design. Tesla is variable speed single compressor with a whole lotta potential operation modes.
  4. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's the million dollar question. If 2020 cars didn't have trouble in 2020 but did in 2021, then Tesla may have made a problematic software change. If it is only 2021 cars then it could be either: software that acts differently based on model year or there was a hardware change with a...
  5. M

    Noob option trading questions

    I was referring to a maximum profit point call spread. I'd hope TSLA was way aive 1825 in 2 years :) It's a curve, the website can also do a line chart of return vs price with different lines for the date. And you can change the price range and date to zoom in. Yeah, you can sell the spread...
  6. M

    Off topic galore

    You may be thinking of Sandy's disappointment that the Y still had a normalish 12V electrical system. He also brought up adding a sound deadening cover to the compressor.
  7. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What do you mean by "Damage internally is a common thing"? Compressors should not have internal damage at low hours and should only have wear at high hours. Within bounds of bathtub curve.
  8. M

    Noob option trading questions

    If the stock went from 1825 to 1800 on the day of exipry, your position goes from max profit to max loss. Not advice: There's nothing inherently wrong with that spread and has the pluses you call out. However, it doesn't return much in the short term. And in the situations where it does, other...
  9. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    ??? The Y launched with a heat pump. Patent for it was filed Sep 7, 2018. That's over a year before production launch in January 2020 and before the reveal in March 2019. Not long enough? The first provisional application was filed September of 2017. I think it's safe to say they worked on it...
  10. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If it counts as CapEx then it should immediately increase the bottom line via reduced expenses with the downsides of less cash on hand and depreciation (EBIT will be happy). Additionally, the federal tax credit will apply to the installed cost giving an immediate bump. Maybe just the HW cost if...
  11. M

    Noob option trading questions

    Midprice is just the average of bid/ask. It doesn't mean someone would take the other side of the trade at that price, especially if there is low volume. This link has your senario and shows the return vs time and stock price.TSLA Credit Spread calculator For example: SP of $2,000 in June 22...
  12. M

    Noob option trading questions

    If using limit orders, you know the max you are would pay (if the order executes). If using market orders, you have no control over the price. That's the nature if a limit order. You say the max you are willing to pay. If the price starts out higher and moves down, you'll end up paying that...
  13. M

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    For US: Unless they want to start the clock on long term capital gains for the shares. That's not the scenario you mentioned; however, due to random assigment of contracts, one could have a short call position immediately exercised, it just wouldn't have been done by the purchaser of that call...
  14. M

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    You can Buy To Close (BTC) anytime during market hours (for the right bid price )
  15. M

    Model Year 2022 Refresh M3/MY

    250Wh/mil = 156Wh/km * 12 km = 1872 Wh / 40W = 46.8 hours. Or roughly 2 days of on time assuming it never goes into a low power mode. Seems like it would be at less than max total power dissipation though; they may be allowing for less frequent charging.
  16. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Automotive compressors can be disassembled nondestructively. Even if danage were to occur, it would not be the scroll surfaces themselves which would break. (Unless done maliciously)
  17. M

    Noob option trading questions

    Q1: All a balance on your goals/ risk reward level Q2: Using mid is less probable with low volume. Worst case cost is 205.50-196.65 = 8.85. If your brokerage allows multi-leg trades, you can set the cost for the position. Worst case, it doesn't fill. Q3: low volumes and open interest can make...
  18. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Does this reflect at all on the silicon anode presented at battery day? Maybe only partial Si? Or would this be used for the lower energy density iron phosphate type?
  19. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    We (or at least I) have near to zero direct data since most repairs are handled by Tesla. So it's all reports by people who had their compressors replaced with no root cause visibility. May be that the Russia failure(s) are rare or another issue separate from the general no heat complaint.
  20. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Agree, literal definition of en masse seems hyperbolic at this point. He does clarify later than % failure is not known. As to Russia, it's status as an unsupported region is the reason why third party tear downs exist.
  21. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Yeah, that term is a bit much, if meant literally. My limited understanding is that the compressor can handle some flooding; however, this condition can also flush out the lubricant/ oil resulting in metal on metal contact and accelerated wear. Depending on design (this may be more relevent to...
  22. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Heat Pump: The how and why of using controlled amounts of liquid.
  23. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Heat Pump Tesla called out this potential failure mode in the patent in the context of a high waste heat mode which may nit have been implemented. While this extreme mode may not be implemented, other sections do also call out preheating with the compressor drive electronics and allowing...
  24. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Per HP patent, system is called out as having modes where the compressor is intentionally flooded (partially) to increase performance. However, if too much liquid enters, it may result in the damage seen in non-Tesla teardowns.
  25. M

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Re heat pump: Patent link: US20190070924A1 - Optimal source electric vehicle heat pump with extreme temperature heating capability and efficient thermal preconditioning - Google Patents
  26. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It may be worse than that. Per green's thread on Twitter, tear downs of compressors in Russia show internal mechanical damage. Software could probably detect these damaged units, but they can't be repaired as an OTA update. Happy to discuss further in the engineering thread. Investor Engineering...
  27. M

    Off topic galore

    More likely 120VAC in North America. Unless you manage to touch both phases simultaneously before ground. Bad version of Operation .
  28. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps here: Investor Engineering Discussions
  29. M

    SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

    Not decades (blame @Cosmacelf ) ULA has only been around 15 years (Dec 1 2006). They dropped the history of LM and Boeing when formed which is how they claim a 100% success rate. Shuttle flew 1981 - 2011. United Space (not Launch) Alliance (USA) was the prime contractor for the shuttle ops from...
  30. M

    Tax discussion, strategies and questions

    Yah, area under the curve. Roth conversion is handy to get money penalty free before 59.5 (still a 5 year waiting period though). Higher interest rates help with 72t plan payouts (which have side effects when combined with Roth)
  31. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I couldn't tell for sure from the photos, but is this a dual slip ring like an alternator as opposed to a commutator setup like a typical brushed motor? The brushes (looked like 3 per circuit) will still wear out, but less quickly than brushed motors. Plus, there should not be any arcing.
  32. M

    Tax discussion, strategies and questions

    Just to clarify for people Googling, a backdoor Roth to get new money in is different than Roth conversions of existing IRAs. Moving from pre-tax to taxable due to the lower capital gains rate may be disadvantageous since the earnings are effectively double taxed. The account starts out reduced...
  33. M

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Hey now, don't lump all calls together. Fronting $40 of time value on a year out call with 0.93 Delta for a 45% discount over owning stock is not a terrible idea (about double the delta per $). Especially if you buy it on a >$40 dip. Unless you are also against owning stock, then you're consistent.
  34. M

    AC/DC - is rapid charging DC?

    That is DC, 50kW (not kWh), and is not going to hurt your battery. Tesla Superchargers can do >100kW.
  35. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Fancy colors are under the car covers.
  36. M

    Model Year 2022 Refresh M3/MY

    Possibly there were wire harness changes for both updates. So a car can only get both or neigther.
  37. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think (hope) you dropped this "/s" P=$1,003 pre market E=$2.23 average guess for Q4 x 4 = $8.92 1003/8.92=112 Even using trailing earnings: 300x at 6.36 (2021) would be >$1,900 a share. 158 P/E currently. What other automaker has Tesla's level of growth? (Or any)
  38. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Reuters article moved the start of production (as opposed to volume ramp) to Q1 2023 from 2022. (Though I sort of doubt it, esp since Lars calls out the 4 wheel steering.). Exclusive: Tesla delays initial production of Cybertruck to early 2023 - source "Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) aims to start...
  39. M

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Yeah, that's why I need to check which thread I'm in... All about the credit spreads in here.
  40. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    gross_sale=net_needed/(1 - tax_rate) *If basis is zero*
  41. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    @larmor There was a news article yesterday that typoed CEO for COO. Then was corrected (without directly saying what the correction was). So the confusion is understandable .
  42. M

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Those have already been identified as delayed by Elon/ Tesla and that all new products are gated on cells/ semiconductors. Cybertruck was bumped to the end of this year already, hard to bump it out further at this time. It doesn't seem like current earning projections rely on new product...
  43. M

    Tax discussion, strategies and questions

    Yeah, agree there so... Ah, I see the issue You meant "payment above the safe harbor amount". FWIW, I did just that. Roll converted some Roth in Dec, pulled RMD to pay for it in January.
  44. M

    Do your front intake shutters (louvers) actuate (close) ?

    For a heat pump equipped vehicle, that outside air heats the radiator (which heats the evaporator) most of the time (unless super cold or defrosting). So blocking it would likely worsen things (versus a diesel semi). As to the firewall, the frunk tub blocks at least some airflow and there may be...
  45. M

    Do your front intake shutters (louvers) actuate (close) ?

    In the Tweet thing, it's that they don't close. (Maybe not relevent to thread beyond being vent related). From that narrative, it seems like the system can detect air temp (indirectly? ), but not the physical vent position.
  46. M

    Do your front intake shutters (louvers) actuate (close) ?

    Tweet indicates these may be linked to cold weather issues. Suggests keeping the intake clean.
  47. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even if the press is not the bottleneck, it's good to avoid single point failures, if practical. With only 2 presses, everything shuts down* if one breaks. * Or runs at <50% capacity assuming die swapping is even feasible.
  48. M

    Starlink Question

    I expect there is an expected position/ track used along with local placement for gross positioning. With the wideish beam, they theoretically can bounce +/- X degrees in elevation and azimuth and use the strongest signal as the new aim point.
  49. M

    Starlink Question

    I think of it like a CD player sled, electronic is orders of magnitude faster than physical and shouldn't have an issue maintaining the link.
  50. M

    Starlink Question

    Tracking should be via steering the phased array electronically. However, there is no reason it could not also reposition physically to point at a section of sky with better coverage.

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