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  1. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Same with me - I won’t do it unless I see a 3-5% move around the open and then I’m going 5%+ OTM. I’m not trading unless we get big directional spikes and then I’m looking to close early when IV drops. Way too many 10% move days lately.
  2. scubastevo80

    Tesla Energy, TRECs, NJ ... need help

    If you go the direct line approach - you'll get 1 in 5 people who can give you a proper update on your status. If you contact NJ Clean Energy, they'll only tell you what your project status is and direct you back to your installer (Tesla). I suggest you email the NJ incentives team if you can...
  3. scubastevo80

    Price increase? [posted 06.16.2022]

    I would buy a P if I wanted another 3 right now. I was due for an upgrade in 2023, but I'm not sure a model 3 is worth $60k to me. I also have a Cybertruck and Lucid Air reservation and really need to think about what to do. My wife's Y is our primary, and my car is used for commuting 3 days a...
  4. scubastevo80

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    One either believes in crypto currency as a widely adopted medium of exchange in the future, or you don't. Irrespective of the mining costs, yesterday's issues were that of a company who decided to restrict liquidity, and I'm not surprised given what some of these DeFi companies are offering...
  5. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I had to roll 700/630s this morning to next week for a $30 strike improvement and a small credit. I don’t know what I was thinking standing in front of the inflation train…
  6. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    IV on the Jun'24 $2000s is around 62% and on the $400s is 70%. I'm not sure we'll see that level of crash given the options volume that TSLA now sees, but perhaps enough people get burned and shaken out and we have further IV drops. I'm worrying less about IV for my DITM LEAPs and more about...
  7. scubastevo80

    FSD Beta 10.12

    I've been on FSD beta for about 6 months and, in my opinion, it was constantly getting marginally better from my own perception of how the car handled my daily situations. This is the version build where I've been like "what the..." and took over because the jerkiness and decision making (or...
  8. scubastevo80

    FSD Beta 10.12

    Visualization is definitely a plus on 10.12. I've struggled to use this build because some basic issues that weren't present for me in 10.11 have made me lose confidence in using it (vs me driving). My car approaches intersections way to fast if there's a slightly obstructed stop sign. By my...
  9. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Too many daily 10% swings and personal inability to cut losses early are leading me to only tactically trade DTE 3 or less and on the back of a big move. I’m still sitting 50% down with two spreads locked up until Sept and Jan’23. That and a long call spread +1000/-1200 means I really need us...
  10. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    What's with all the sudden posts from this Wifey person? Do they have legit credentials or just the latest person to make one correct prediction and capitalize on social media followers?
  11. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Looking at BPS 12% OTM from yesterday's close, so likely a -685/+600 or so. I'd like to take advantage of the IV spike and don't believe we'll close down more than 12% today, although I'll be ready to roll it if we breach $700. Edit: sold at $1.40, will close early if we get any brief jump...
  12. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Sold 835/905 BCS for 6/2 a short while ago for $2.2 after we seemed to struggle with the $790 mark. This is a bet that we won't rise another 5% by EOD tomorrow, but I'm going to look to get out of this for some quick money. I stood in front of the freight train last week and got run over, so...
  13. scubastevo80

    Really? Is no one talking about the Chevy Bolt?

    I'm looking at it from all angles - what are we getting as a consumer (are the battery fire risks gone, what does battery degredation look like, does service exist when needed) and what about the sale for the bottom line of GM. More importantly, what are we missing? Everyone is raising prices...
  14. scubastevo80

    FSD Beta 10.12

    I received 2022.12.3.20 this morning and the ride was scary. First stop side about 1/4 mile from my house (T-junction) and it abruptly braked which it never did before. Started making a left into the intersection and then paused halfway through - thankfully no cars. Hard tight left going...
  15. scubastevo80

    Really? Is no one talking about the Chevy Bolt?

    That was Q4 2021. They sold a whopping 358 Bolts and 457 total EVs in Q1. 457 / 26 is like 17x growth QoQ. With the reduced prices, expect that 4x or more the rest of this year... Oops, did I forget to mention the Q4 numbers were down 95% YoY?
  16. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I just got burned again last week with BCS (wasn't expecting that level of run) and was unwilling to cut losses early on. All of my very few trades for the next several months will be greedy trades which I'll happily miss if they don't hit the levels I want. I also put a 6/3 BPS -600/+500 order...
  17. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Just thinking out loud - hasn't the market factored most/all of this in? With growth stocks being 50-80% off their highs, are we really expecting another meaningful leg down for high quality companies? If Tesla was trading in the $525-550 range, wouldn't many of us be selling kidney's to buy...
  18. scubastevo80

    US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

    All these comments about "new customers" coming to brands - I wonder how many are genuinely intending to purchase and keep these cars? I, like many others, have a handful of reservations given wait times and car shortages. I could certainly cancel a refundable reservation I no longer need or...
  19. scubastevo80

    Tesla Energy, TRECs, NJ ... need help

    If you want, you can also message me. I setup mine in March and got my first payment this month (for about 7 months of generation).
  20. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Closed my BPS (90+% up) and BCS (15% up) before the fed minutes to avoid any wild up or down swings, which obviously didn't happen. Depending on tomorrow's volatility, I may call it a week. If we have a +/-5% day early, I'll consider selling spreads for 5/26 around 10% OTM.
  21. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Opened a 5/27 BCS -710/+760 for $3.25 shortly after 11am when the highs started seeing resistance. I now effectively have an IC for Friday between 550-710, but the put side will likely be closed shortly since its up 89% (call side up 12% as I write this).
  22. scubastevo80

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree - this is shaping up to be a winner takes all environment for auto manufacturers. It seems like automakers are either in the camp that is unable to scale production, is heavily skewed towards ICE car production, and is struggling to make profits... or you're Tesla. Gas over $5 a gallon...
  23. scubastevo80

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Meanwhile, Tavares came out urging global regulators to pump the brakes on the EV transition due to his belief batteries and raw materials will be in short supply starting in 3 years. The current auto manufacturer production numbers versus Tesla coupled with rising gas prices is really shaping...
  24. scubastevo80

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The million dollar question is whether S&P/large cap stocks are going to hold up well while small/mid/tech continue to take a bath, or if S&P stocks will be the last shoe to fall and further pain will occur for all. As I look at my portfolio today, MCD, trading at a forward P/E of 22 with...
  25. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Should have closed my BPS 550/500 right before yesterday's close. Had the order in at $1 but didn't get that low. The market really continues to crush everything on any bit of bad news. If we get close to being 10% down today, I'm goin to look for a bounce trade.
  26. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    You're right, I clicked the write a call instead of put in optionprofitcalculator - two sips into my coffee isn't enough. $45k premium and breakeven at $550 doesn't look so bad.
  27. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Do you expect it to stay low in 1-2 years? The June'24 $1000 LEAPs are worth $16.700 a piece and start losing money around $1150. I'd rather buy the 100 shares and you get your $16,700 when the stock crosses $830, which we should easily be able to attain. Disclosure: I'm on the other side of...
  28. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I tripled the amount I can draw down on my HELOC and started deploying some funds for the low $600s, which I personally think is a gift (50% of all time highs). My next trigger is around $550 and if we get to $500, I'm going all-in. $500, which is about a 25% drop from here, is kind of...
  29. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'd avoid rolling the calls down to $1000 with 2yrs time value, but perhaps I'm more bullish than others. Two years worth of 50% growth can do a lot for the stock price, not to mention the split that we're expecting. The market is forward looking, so in my opinion, we've priced in a lot of the...
  30. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    "Remember Sully when I promised to kill you last... I lied" Sold 5/27 BPS -550/+500 for $4.5. Will look to close this out on any strength on Monday. Do others feel like mid-$500s and lower are safe here?
  31. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Not me. I'm avoiding this short-term volatility. We're too low and having too many +/-5% days, I'm just loading up long exposure. All shares, a LEAP, the Jun'24 +1000/-1200 spread. I have 2 underwater BPS but they were both rolled out - one to 10/21 and one to Jan'23. If we are able to claw...
  32. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Converted 56shares to a Jun'24 $400 LEAP when price touched $680. Cost was $381, so hopefully my foray into LEAP leverage helps. I'm not one to call a bottom, but I really can't see a company that's printing money with this much long-term upside trading in the mid $600s for long. Inflation...
  33. scubastevo80

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How do you guys do the math on this ~$70k worth of risk? I am doing this correctly? Not sure whether I should be taking option value or assuming taking delivery of shares... 100 shares going from $700 to $1200 = $50k profit. To $1400 = $60k profit. 3 LEAPs in June'24 are worth $45k at $1200...
  34. scubastevo80

    Supercharger - Basking Ridge, NJ

    Nice - I missed this today when I got my breakfast at nearby O'Bagel.
  35. scubastevo80

    All discussion of Lucid Motors

    I reserved the Pure model earlier this month before they announced the increase. There are things I really like about the car based on what I've seen in the showroom and watched in videos from others. A salesperson called me the other day and asked if I had any questions. What he couldn't...
  36. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Traded June '24 call spread +1000/-1200 for a debit of $42. Cost of this trade was $4200, breakeven @ $1042, max profit is $15,800 at $1200. I was trying to find spreads in the 900-1300 range that paid 5x the $'s risked, but ended up with this at 4x. Spent about 2hrs trying different trades...
  37. scubastevo80

    2022 Model 3 AWD Blue - South NJ

    Car is pending sale for next Wednesday (delivery day). I'll mark as sold once confirmed.
  38. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I’ve considered it, but then realized I’m not looking to spend $42k on an options trade. I realize the upside is unlimited but I’m also trying to be realistic about a price ceiling in 24 months. This trade would net double at about $1650. The call spread would net the 7x the amount risked so...
  39. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Tried writing a June'24 debit call spread +1200/-1600 for $50, but didn't execute - may try again tomorrow. At $1300, I'd double my money and I believe we'll be there or higher in two years. I'm looking to move away from the current short term volatility in favor of some longer term leverage...
  40. scubastevo80

    2022 Model 3 AWD Blue - South NJ

    I'm listing my father's brand new Model 3 for sale - he has been assigned a VIN and delivery is expected in the next 10 days. Unfortunately, he is a Lexus fanatic and just located a LS460 deal that he couldn't pass up, so that purchase is being finalized (they already have a white Model 3). At...
  41. scubastevo80

    End of the ICE industry

    I believe ICE will be extinct one day, but right now market conditions allow them to persist. Given the car shortage, everything will be sold ICE and EV. Once there’s enough EV supply at parity with ICE, then you’ll see the steady trend downward. I also believe people will buy inferior EVs...
  42. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Rolled my 725/825 expiring today up and out to 780/880 Oct'22 for a tiny credit and put on an $5 IC on for Friday between 735 and 785. Robinhood closed out the call side at $0.27 but the put side expired. I put an order in to sell the whole thing at $0.10 but it never hit. As it sits now, 2/3...
  43. scubastevo80

    Difference in acceleration between Model 3 LR w/boost and Model 3P?

    If you run against a P ( with a boost car) from 30 and it’s even or the boost car gets the slightest jump, the P doesn’t pull on it meaningfully, so to me it’s negligible. The dyno numbers show the drop starts at around 40 and then the gap continues to close. I’d take the P for track mode, but...
  44. scubastevo80

    Difference in acceleration between Model 3 LR w/boost and Model 3P?

    Half second difference from 0-60, which is all in the 0-30 range. Punch both from 30 and the difference is negligible.
  45. scubastevo80

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The only good thing about today is that I caught COIN in the mid-$40s and then sold at $56 and change. Oh and I picked up a few more TSLA at just under $700. Man this market is brutal. Meme stocks blowing off their tops and a 50%+/year grower can't squeak out a positive day.
  46. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Yes - so if you have an 825/725 put spread, and stock is trading at 700 (-25 vs lower strike), you'd sell a call spread at something like 725/825 or would you sell at the lower strike +25 (750/850). Or do I have this all wrong.
  47. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Lucky you - I'm trying to figure out what to do with my 5/13 825/725. May pay to roll it out, but this looks like the end of my option trading days either way. Taking too much of a hit on the volatility over the last 4 months.
  48. scubastevo80

    Lucid Air 360 deg view.

    I did the same - next year my 3 will be about 5 yrs old so I will be thinking of upgrading. At current prices, the P model is $63k and the Air Pure I want is about $75k with tax credit. May be worth the $12k delta to me for the range and luxury. We also have a CT reservation.
  49. scubastevo80

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Nothing from me this week - sitting on a rolled 5/13 -825/+725 that I'll be looking to roll again. For today, not touching it as I don't think we go sharply lower. If we are above 800 tomorrow I'll likely look to roll down and out another week.

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