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  1. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    If you are asking as appears for a binary answer, yes is the most correct answer.
  2. I

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Also agree we may be in a structural decline and simultaneously have concerns about declining cap ex keeping prices high for years (amidst the ups and downs). Just a few years ago I would have never believed OPEC+ and Western firms would muster such discipline - managing curtailment of cap ex...
  3. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Lithuania is more than happy to enforce given Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea and knowing Russia will do nothing of consequence given Lithuania being a NATO member.
  4. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests… …"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of...
  5. I

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    …both official sanctions and the voluntary “self sanctions” embraced by Western firms seem to be biting. According to Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, Russia is selling roughly 500,000 fewer barrels of refined product a day than it was before the war, and may have been forced to shut...
  6. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    The video shows two missiles slamming into a vessel believed to be 19 miles east of Snake (or Zmiinyi) Island, causing it to erupt in a fireball. In a statement on Twitter, the Ukrainian Navy claimed the vessel to be the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Project 22870 rescue tug Vassily Bekh, described...
  7. I

    Heat Pump Clothes Dryers

    So on paper, a full (American) size heat pump clothes dryer with high CEF is finally here: LG - WKHC202H*A Drum Capacity (cu-ft): 7.2 Combined Energy Factor (CEF): 8.0 Estimated Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr): 299 Reported Date Available on Market: 3/31/2022 Product Finder — ENERGY STAR Certified...
  8. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Ukraine can gain back much territory but this would likely require a long game of projecting endless civilian/military economic support and continued escalation and sustaining of advanced weapons/training/supply/logistics. The West easily has the long term economic and technology advantage...
  9. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Live: Zelensky visits frontline troops as Ukraine claims control of ‘half’ of Severodonetsk
  10. I

    Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

    It's hard to see how Russia and SA (and some smaller players) don't keep pumping and selling fossil fuels until it is no longer profitable for them to do so. The West will probably come around to robust cross border carbon tariffs which will help. China may wean off fossil fuels in their own...
  11. I

    California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

    Trying to understand the setup in NM - so their meter (or additional meter) sits between the inverter and service panel? Our smart meter sits between the grid and our service panel, so PG&E has no way to measure how much our microinverters are pushing into the service panel.
  12. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same take here. General trading market participants yesterday completely misunderstood the subtext. Great TSLA buying opportunity for those with dry powder.
  13. I

    CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

    We have a few years old Carrier 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF (~COP 3.8) central ducted air-source heat pump. Subsequently later models may do a bit better. Of course all the caveats of matching air handling equipment to get this maximum SEER/HSPF apply... Mini-splits are available that do COP >4. Our...
  14. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    NY Times is reporting that President Macky Sall of Senegal, the African Union’s chairman, will meet with Putin on Friday and urge him to lift Russia’s blockade on Ukranian grain and fertilizer. Putin has done much meddling in Africa over the years and he is not as generally hated there as in...
  15. I

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    That is how I take it, but not 100% sure. NY Times is saying: ...the group said it would raise production by 648,000 barrels a day in July and then again in August, an increase of about 50 percent over the monthly rise set under a program last year. Effectively, what OPEC Plus is doing is...
  16. I

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    OPEC+ reported at a videoconference a few hours ago that they would raise production to 648k b/d (50% increase compared with the increase planned last year) Gotta hand it to them though, they finally figured out discipline.
  17. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Learning curve required here, but the U.S. plans to sell four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine: EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources
  18. I

    BYND Beyond Meat out of main

    Not an investor in BYND here, but I do buy their products such as this morning at Costco a 2.5 pound freezer 10-pack at $12.79. That's only $1.28 for each 1/4 pound patty. Sure, this is not among the healthiest vegan foods, but it is a great flexitarian vegan option. Some are concerned about...
  19. I

    Solar PV News

    Great renewable/battery natural “experiment” to continue to watch in Kauai. Shows what’s demonstrably possible as the IOUs play their expensive lobbying games.
  20. I

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Historically energy is still relatively cheap in the U.S. Would need substantially higher prices to see double digit reductions in fossil fuel energy use.
  21. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia had their peak weapons at time zero and their highest-end tech supplies are diminishing. Ukraine is just now ramping up on those heavy weapons and the West continues to up their offerings. The longer the war drags on, the more the West will be willing to train Ukranians to use more...
  22. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    If Ukraine choses to go long game on this, advantage is likely theirs. Some European countries will continue to waiver, but US, UK, Poland et al will likely continue to provide supplies and logistics. MLRS + heavy artillery with endless replenishment will severely hamper Russia resupply...
  23. I

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Would argue we could see substantially more reduced driving, but would need to see more European level prices. Many could carpool, but most not willing to be inconvenienced even at our current prices. Over the decades fuel costs as a percent of discretionary income has decreased substantially.
  24. I

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    They report 5% down compared to same time last year. Will take it, but so far demand a lot more inelastic than many of us hoped.
  25. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Have to imagine Ukraine considers this a fully legit and priority target once their capabilities are there.
  26. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Ukrainians have a strong need to further thin the Black Sea of hostile war ships - eventually to get grain out, but for now to immediately reduce incoming enemy attacks and stall resupply of their lines. If US goes first to supplying the platforms and missiles, others will likely follow. Maybe...
  27. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    On one hand, Russian troops are digging in and it’s substantially easier to defend territory than advance. On the other hand, more advanced equipment is progressively being acquired by Ukraine and put into operation. Not sure what the sweet spot is - Ukraine to push harder now on offense...
  28. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    In a sign of Russia's urgent need to bolster its war effort in Ukraine, parliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military. Struggling in Ukraine, Russia paves way to sign up over-40s for army
  29. I

    Nuclear power

    One of my bigger concerns in all of this is a relatively "good" problem to have from a global perspective. As much of the world has rudely awakened to the need for energy security (sadly climate was not important enough alone), renewables -solar/wind and batteries will be markedly supply...
  30. I

    Nuclear power

    Political/?Economic? pressure on governor Newsom increased now to keep Diablo Canyon running beyond 2025. Newsom Considering Applying for Federal Aid to Keep State's Last Nuclear Plant Operating | San Jose Inside I personally think if he is going to play realpolitik, he should extend it a few...
  31. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Held out much longer than most expected at Azovstal: Ukraine’s military command declared an end to the "combat mission" at the Azovstal steel complex, where Ukrainian defenders had held out for weeks under Russian assault. The announcement carried a tone of finality, refering to the fighters as...
  32. I

    Nuclear power

    Large-scale integration of offshore wind into the Japanese power grid - Sustainability Science
  33. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Not sure I understand if you are suggesting that Finland wants to join NATO now primarily because Russia looks weaker? If I remember the polling correctly, the Finns attitude towards joining NATO changed drastically within the first days of the war. Although today it appears obvious that...
  34. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Quite possibly so. I have an extended family member who works in US aerospace, has done lots of work/dealings related to our NATO partnership with Turkey over the years. Said person has noted endless frustration by Turkey's Machiavellian dealings with their primary interest being acquisition...
  35. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Today Turkey reportedly "walked back" a potential challenge of Finland and Sweden accession to NATO. A Turkish spokesman said "that Turkey was merely trying to ensure that all alliance members’ security concerns were heeded." For Putin, a Nordic Nightmare Is Springing to Life Was thinking of...
  36. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Important points raised here about EU and NATO membership/accession. Selection is critical. Bigger is not inherently better. Countries must be at a certain point in democratic evolution, otherwise they are potential liabilities. As noted, for Putin, EU or NATO aggressive accession could be a...
  37. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Another Russian naval ship is on fire in the Black Sea, Ukraine says A Russian support ship, the "Vsevolod Bobrov," was being towed to Sevastopol from the area of Snake Island after it caught fire, according to Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for Odesa Regional Military Administration.
  38. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Thinking about TheTalkingMule's negotiating stance - how about a stronger starting position - in addition Russia give back Köningsberg (Kaliningrad - can give back to Germany or split with Poland/Lithuania) and Northern Territories back to Japan. Finland can agree not to join Nato if Russia...
  39. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Intriguing, but not sure Estonia, Latvia, and Norway would go along all the same.
  40. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Hey, thanks for not mentioning NSFW. :D
  41. I

    Ercot issues Conservation Warning

    Too bad ERCOT refuses to link to other grids. We could share some late afternoon to early evening solar (we're 1-2 times zones behind them).
  42. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Politics aside, indeed a large part of the U.S. engine/success story has been its ability to recruit skilled labor/professionals/intellectuals for most of its history. Their following generation as well is often similar. Much of this may have been structural/institutional benefits as opposed...
  43. I

    CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

    Right, the number ranges were mentioned, and you picked parameters within them - there is plenty of room for adjustment within similar parameters. Disagree on ability to shift usage, disagree that peak pricing incentivizes utility profits (utilities will always try to overcharge for anything...
  44. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Interested to hear others' thoughts, but my guess is they will throw everything at Azovstal steel plant by then so they can more legitimately claim control of Mariupol for the land bridge from Crimea. Apparently Russian forces have recently entered the plant and "bloody battles” are in process.
  45. I

    CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

    What does the math look like if we lower off-peak rates to near wholesale, charge $0.25-1.00/kWh for peak rates, and charge something like $30/mo fixed grid fee for all? So same price to all customers (solar or not) and solar/any customers can sell back at same rate for same hour they would be...
  46. I

    CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

    There are those who are already or would be willing to play the TOU game at pro-level to minimize peak hour electricity use. Many of them can be found among these threads. If you build/price the right TOU plans... Some items are free, others are not, but may options: Batteries, insulation...
  47. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    "Victory Day" in Russia is only 5 days away but there has been little change in battlefield maps in the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what the Kremlin announces on 5/9/2022 as many have been expecting Putin to try to spin/sell some sort of "win".
  48. I

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Fire has ripped through a warehouse storing Russian schoolbooks, days after reports that publishers would remove mentions of Ukraine from the nation’s textbooks. Fire Hits Russian Publisher Embroiled in Ukraine Textbook Controversy - The Moscow Times
  49. I

    California Renewable Energy Legislation / Progress

    Yeah, weird, I just noticed the date on that screenshot as “04/30/2022”. Actually that was from today (05/01/2022) - looks like the tracings were refreshing near instantaneously but the date didn’t flip over from yesterday without a browser tab refresh.
  50. I

    California Renewable Energy Legislation / Progress

    Well, it didn't take too long for another new NG floor low record. California busted below 2,000 MW NG generation. Gonna stick with the theory that this is due to rising NG prices leading generators to forgo their NG minimum generation guarantee for the savings of cold hard cash for not...

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