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  1. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps there will be some public customers turned off by the unusual strike price but all options contracts suffer large bid-ask spreads because (even in the case of TSLA) they are, relatively speaking, thinly traded because there are so many different ones. But the spreads will never get too...
  2. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a Tesla. So an acceptable trade for you then. Where is the Polestar located? Oh wait, I found it: 2hr 31min 29.09sec, 89deg 15min, 50.8sec.
  3. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What a vapid site. It's actually chock full of stuff he was just slightly late with or never even gave a timeframe for. This example shows that Elon was a measly two quarters early in his prediction that Tesla would be profitable in every quarter going forward. That the site has a running clock...
  4. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Me too. Especially because most Tesla owners today don't even know there is such a thing as sharing. On my last major road trip (about 9 months ago), three times I had others plug in and pair with my already charging car dropping ~ 30kW off my rate even though there were multiple non-paired...
  5. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps the AAA are unaware that UNECE R157 (which set down requirements for ADA systems in 42 countries) strictly prohibits any system from departing the lane, even if doing "emergency manoeuvres" because a collision is imminent. Section 5.3.2 says So any ADS that could be offered in Europe...
  6. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pro tip: Set your buy order for 421 - could execute before it rebounds above the buy-wall at 420.69
  7. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The spectroscopy shows you that your scrap wheels are full of iron and zinc. How exactly does spectroscopy remove these impurities? It doesn't; you have to go through non-trivial processing cycles to do that. Tesla may have vertically integrated aluminum recycling if they deemed it advantageous...
  8. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not quite. The feds have already delegated to the states (with guidelines and recommendations) the approval process to be used but only for testing and pilot programs. While they haven't done so yet, there is no doubt that the NHTSA has the authority to regulate the safety of robotaxis. NHTSA...
  9. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nobody believed his time lines after the first couple of years. His reputation on that question is already toast. So lets hope nobody seriously believes it will impact TSLA CY 2022.
  10. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The drop from "FSD end of this year" was perfectly followed by the $9 drop, fraction of a second later. A few other comments had obvious real-time (less than 1 second) responses. I have no reason to believe others aren't equally correlated.
  11. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nope. That only got it to 955. I'm watching live time & sales during the call. Peaked pretty much just as Elon turned it over to Zach. Been heading down since, even with Elon speaking now. When Elon said FSD this year that did cause an $9 dip for a short while.
  12. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So many here saying they don't want Elon to talk, but during his talking price went to 970+. Since Zach started talking it's down to 957.
  13. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sure, nobody expects a good credit rating during a start-up's pre-profitability phase. But you called this phase "poor production hell execution" which it wasn't. Both the production and fiscal execution were very very good during this period.
  14. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You're saying the > 61% CAGR in vehicle delivers for the years 2013 - 2018 was the "poor production hell"? 2013-2014 had 41% increase: 22,442 -> 31,655 2014-2015 had 59% increase: 31,655 -> 50,517 2015-2016 had 50.9% increase: 50,517 -> 76,243 2016-2017 had 35.2% increase: 76,243 -> 103,091...
  15. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's because Tesla manufactures devices for watching Netflix.
  16. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmm, if the conclusion of the approval is measured as distance that gives them the flexibility to move backwards, forwards, or sideways. Then the real question becomes what is their velocity so we can translate the approval into a time when it will happen.
  17. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't know what Fidelity does, but it is fairly common for brokers to show the "market value" of an option as given by the last trade price. Many (most actually) options contracts are thinly traded and the last sale can easily be outside the current bid/ask range. So unless the bid/ask quotes...
  18. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, Wall St. is that dumb/ignorant.
  19. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is exactly what I was talking about. As I said, I wrote software to search through many years worth of data looking at ~6000 other heavily traded symbols to find the longest consecutive period of zero FTDs for those other symbols. No other stock ever came close to 2.5 months of zero FTD...
  20. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear). I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC...
  21. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What happened to them building 200k Lightning in the next six months? Was it not possible to foresee this battery shortage last August?
  22. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've said nothing at all about Tesla's EPA ratings and I'm certainly no cheerleader for Porsche . Bjorn Nyland tested the Taycan 4S 93 kWh (EPA rated 227 mile range) and found that at an average speed of 90 km/hr (56 MPH) speed he was able to drive 579 km (360 miles) and that at an average speed...
  23. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Car and Driver (and others) give a real-world range of 280 miles while the EPA range is 225. 225/(1 - 0.2) = 281.25 so it's nearly an exact fit to explain the range discrepancy.
  24. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From the @avoigt Teslarati article, it says that for vehicles "standing longer than 2 weeks": Customers must assure that the Taycan’s state of charge remains between 20% – 50% or the warranty will be significantly reduced. Better hope the dealer didn't have your Taycan on the lot for 2 weeks...
  25. hacer

    Model Y Service Bulletins

    I'm not sure if all TSB's are on NHTSA's site but some of them are. 2021 Model Y SBs. The temperature sensors for the heat-pump SB is hilariously labeled "Components: Fuel System, Gasoline"
  26. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought it was obvious that I was being sarcastic. The original post said Ford must not have paid the publication, but the claim of better handling surely proves that they did pay. It's just that the acceleration sucked so bad they couldn't lie about that without losing subscribers, so they...
  27. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The superior handling and braking comes from the fact that the Mach-E's handling/braking is measured at much lower speeds because it can't go fast. o_O
  28. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Those same people could have sold at $1172 or higher on Nov 8, or Nov 9, *after* the public announcement and Twitter poll results about Elon selling was known. Why didn't they sell then? That is just 6% below the all-time intra-day high price TSLA ever traded at. Should all shareholders be...
  29. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sure, but if they have a "reasonable price" then they won't have Tesla's margins. So the point stands: the upstarts are way over valued.
  30. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I hadn't seen that Q&A previously. It's not obvious that CFR §242.201(c) would prohibit someone from marking a short sale short-exempt when the uptick rule is not in effect so long as they ensure it really is at or above the best national bid. It uses the same language for when it may be done as...
  31. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FTFY That's pretty funny because I've been (fruitlessly) trying to explain to you that the marking of "short exempt" means it is exempt from the uptick rule, (Reg SHO Rule 201) so you finally seem to agree with me!!! Anyone who correctly understands that would also predict short-exempt marking...
  32. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And share price rallies because no dilution! Win Win.
  33. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's even worse than that. In the Senate, the filibuster requires just 41 senators to stop almost anything in its tracks. 41 senators can come from 21 states. If those 21 states happen to be the least populated states they represent just 11.7% of the U.S. population. So 11.7% of the population...
  34. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There a few location where that might work out, but not very many. They will continue to have some interconnectivity with other systems for reliability if nothing else but also there aren't that many metro areas with enough nearby solar and wind resources to make that possible. Maybe 30% of...
  35. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Except that is the price of solar modules, not the electricity that they produce. The electricity costs will include distribution, storage, maintenance, etc. and will not fall as fast nor as far as the module production costs. For example, the distribution costs alone on my electric bill are...
  36. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While they don't specifically regulate top speed, given that they do place an upper bound on allowed lateral acceleration, that is effectively a speed limit if you want to safely control the car. Perhaps you consider remaining in the lane (or even on the road!) during auto-steer unnecessary but...
  37. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Except that the original "estimate" is based on a whole lot of speculation. The 250 mile range is only true at the beginning of life, so the 1 million mile estimate is overstated. It could go 1 million miles but near the end of life it's range would greatly lower the value and utility of the...
  38. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The original discussion was about Tesla's in GERMANY, which in not the US. In the EU Tesla's autopilot is strictly limited by regulation. Sorry for the grotesque article author but the story is factual. It's likely that, in the EU, Tesla is limited by both their (current) system and regulations...
  39. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    $1,213.86 $1,213.79 is nice and all but when will return to the 1700-2200 price that StrongGuy says he correctly predicted??
  40. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well when you have over 10 million shares while you might not think of 33,525 shares as a rounding error, it's still not something to get too bothered about. Certainly bothered enough you would analyze it and make the right choice, but not enough to sweat the exact day's price. Plus we don't...
  41. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, Elon specifically said that he would sell stock to pay the tax liability. While he has the capacity to borrow that much money for the 2012 incentives, it won't be possible for the future 2018 incentives when they vest; it will exceed his allowed borrowing, so sooner or later he will do it...
  42. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Minimizing tax liability in this case (by exercising early when stock price is lower) also means minimizing the number of shares held after finishing exercising/selling and having a lower cost basis (and thus future higher tax liability). I don't think Elon's goal is to minimize the number of...
  43. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Let n be the number of shares that Elon has options to buy. (n=22,862,050 expiring soon) Let p be the stock price when he exercises these options. Yet unknown Let t be the tax rate that Elon must pay on the gains. t ~ 0.53 federal + CA (Elon's estimate) Let b be the strike price (b=$6.24 for...
  44. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So put StrongGuy on ignore then?
  45. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In addition to the loss of time value (if there is any which there may not be for very deep ITM) you also lose the leverage they provide. The cash that you will spend to exercise them could be used to buy additional shares while keeping the calls, increasing your leverage. This is not a drawback...
  46. hacer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is that hideously bulky, cumbersome idiotic electrical connector designed by the CharIn committee. Seriously, only something design by a committee could ever be this bad. The EU did mandate by law that all publicly accessible chargers use it, so Tesla had (has) no choice about it in Europe...

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