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  1. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It could be because they don't think they're self-sustaining. I think they're being cautious about the risk of a prolonged and deep recession and are hedging against that. For instance, if FCA goes under, there goes $1.5+ billion in emissions credit payments, plus the normal drop in auto sales...
  2. omgwtfbyobbq

    Wiki Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software

    It might not be an excuse if battery manufacturing works out. Why pay Panasonic/etc for replacement cells if they can manufacturer their own for a fraction of the cost?
  3. omgwtfbyobbq

    Wiki Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software

    Even the currently warranty is somewhat nebulous when Tesla can limit the max pack/cell voltage. The cars are tested/certified at some max pack/cell voltage, and should operate there for the life of the vehicle. If Tesla decides to reduce the max pack/cell voltage, and that reduces degradation...
  4. omgwtfbyobbq

    Wiki Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software

    It's highly speculative. The most NHTSA can fine Tesla for this is $111+ million. NHTSA, Investigating Tesla Fire Reports, Demands Data on Battery Software Changes With that said, if delaying can save Tesla $5k per pack, then there would only need to be 25k cars or more with this problem for...
  5. omgwtfbyobbq

    Charge limit to 80% vs 90%. Will 90% significantly degard battery capacity?

    Where does it say the 100-70% cycles are done 3x more than the 100-10%? I think both had a 2 hour charge, a 10 hour rest, a 2 hour discharge, and another 10 hour rest, and the higher SOC(average) is what's really hurting capacity of the 100-70% category (at 28C).
  6. omgwtfbyobbq

    Charge limit to 80% vs 90%. Will 90% significantly degard battery capacity?

    Doh! It should have been this pdf. All things being equal, larger SOCs are harder on batteries, but SOC(average) tends to be more detrimental, to the point where losses from it can be much greater than losses from larger SOCs. (page 8) https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66708.pdf
  7. omgwtfbyobbq

    Suddenly lost 10 miles of range.

    Still showing an estimated 282 miles at 90% in the app, so I haven't seen anything yet, knock on wood. Even brand new it wouldn't go past I think 306 out of 310, so my pack is probably missing a few cell connections to begin with.
  8. omgwtfbyobbq

    Charge limit to 80% vs 90%. Will 90% significantly degard battery capacity?

    Something else to consider is that pack degradation as a function of state of charge (SoC) tends to show up much later in life. There will likely be minimal differences in capacity/lifespan between a battery charged to 60% and a battery charged to 90% up until there isn't, at which point the...
  9. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    End of April.
  10. omgwtfbyobbq

    Charge limit to 80% vs 90%. Will 90% significantly degard battery capacity?

    The lower you go the better. Tesla says it themselves. https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=49402&flag=1 Having said that, you'll likely see the greatest benefit on the top as opposed to on the bottom. So going from 90% to 80% will be more beneficial than going from 60% to 50%.
  11. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    My guess is that CFS is a mixture of autoimmune dysfunction like you said, neurotransmitter disorders, and one or more other things, depending on the person/specifics..
  12. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Not exactly!
  13. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    We'll only know when the dust settles, but I doubt that this will be a replay of the Swine flue. Most of the numbers you'll see on Swine flu deaths were estimates, not confirmed cases. Comparing the confirmed cases of both gives a good idea of the differences between the two. CDC Novel H1N1...
  14. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    This is America, and we eat liberty for breakfast! This tyranny cannot be tolerated! Before you know it they'll be limiting our right to yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater! Also, we're likely in a recession, not that everyone didn't already know that. Recession Probabilities | Jeremy Piger
  15. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I think outbreaks are just groups/clusters of infections. Roughly half of them are in group homes of some sort, which makes sense.
  16. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    As things are, I doubt it, because state governments are acting in a suitably conservative manner. I think it could if we significantly relax our shelter in place orders without sufficient testing and/or surveillance. Even an IFR of just .27% would kill a million people in the US if everyone...
  17. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I feel like he's been stuck inside for too long and has gone full Mr Burns on us. :P
  18. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Take a look at Nembro in Italy. Last year, on average, 10 people/month died. COVID-Related Deaths Are Much Higher Than Reported — And Soon We’ll Know How Much Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest There were 142 deaths there in March, in a town of 11,500 people...
  19. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Here's my wild speculation for the day. A lot of the illness we're seeing isn't just because of COVID-19, it's because of other concurrent viral infections. If COVID-19 has the ability to mediate it's host's immune system to stick around for longer than it would otherwise, that could allow other...
  20. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I gotcha. My point was that some people, like my family, seem to have much more tolerance for pain, discomfort, and disability, and while most providers would rather go than be put on certain kinds of support, others like us may not share that preference. In my experience providers tend to...
  21. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I can see complications getting a function of the life support device being used and the duration of use, but how are they not a function of patient condition?
  22. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I feel like I missed something. Are you saying it's moot because they're uncommon, or because of something else?
  23. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Are there any forms of life support that don't have more complications than whatever the next step down is? I feel like more/greater complications with more invasive life support systems is just a side effect of how ill the patient is. I think it's fairly safe to say that, you, as a...
  24. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    All models are detached from reality. :p In general, I think most epidemiological models will have more variance in predictions earlier in an event and less later, which may seem counter-intuitive, but should be normal. I would be more concerned if the change in predicted deaths increased over...
  25. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    I'm not sure if R0 will drop to 0, but I think it's safe to say it'll converge to a smaller range of values than in the distant future than it's range of values in the near future. The same likely applies to demographics because the CFR depends on the interaction between them and the local R0...
  26. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    The higher certainty in deaths per day later could just be because most of the country is under shelter in place orders now, which at some point should lead to a fairly predictable rate of infection and IFR. Before the IFR stabilizes, it would be affected by what regions implemented shelter in...
  27. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Maybe because there's not much variance over longer timer horizons. If a significant portion of a population gets infected, and you have a good idea of the IFR, then it's should be fairly straightforward to estimate the total number of deaths at some point in the distant future. The number of...
  28. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Either is fine.
  29. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Eggs last months as-is in my experience. I'm cautiously skeptical of most best-by/sell-by dates.
  30. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Yup. Cuomo's talk today covered using modified CPAP versus modified BiPAP versus ventilators. Yes, ventilators can do things modified CPAP/BiPAP can't do, but they can be used in a pinch for someone who doesn't need a ventilator but also isn't able to get by with just supplemental oxygen.
  31. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    Alcohol will "discharge" the filter media of N95 respirators with electrostatic filters. Information and FAQs on the Performance, Protection, and Sterilization of Face Mask Materials | University of Tennessee Research Foundation Placing them on/near metal surfaces can do the same, so if...
  32. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    It was picked because it's used to treat autoimmune disorders. Loratadine, Omeprazole, and so on aren't used to treat any autoimmune disorders AFAIK. Other drugs used to treat autoimmune disorders, like Methotrexate, are I think off the table because some of the side effects affect the lungs.
  33. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, heating the mask without contacting or nearing a metal surface. Here's a good guide to sanitizing N95 masks that use electrostatic filters. Information and FAQs on the Performance, Protection, and Sterilization of Face Mask Materials | University of Tennessee Research Foundation
  34. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    From what I've read, Hydrocephalus/Ventriculomegaly tend to occur with other disorders, and it's hard to separate the symptoms from symptoms of other disorders. In my experience, most providers cannot distinguish between types of dementias, especially with comorbidities. It's really up to the...
  35. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    That brings me back. A couple of my friends were pretty prolific with profane parodies of Disney pieces. Thank you! :D
  36. omgwtfbyobbq

    Coronavirus

    That is unfortunately not very different from day to day operations in some nursing homes. :(
  37. omgwtfbyobbq

    Poll: Is FSD Worth the Cost?

    Yeah, realistically level 2 and optimistically level 3. On the safety side, I took the change to mean that there could be situations where the system works but may be as safe or less safe than a normal driver. It may still be significantly safer on average, but not at least twice as safe as a...
  38. omgwtfbyobbq

    Poll: Is FSD Worth the Cost?

    You're misrepresenting what I'm saying and replying to your misrepresentation. FSD will stay at level 3 until Tesla stops requiring that the driver monitor the driving environment. Anyone who believes otherwise isn't paying attention. That could very well be many people, but that doesn't change...
  39. omgwtfbyobbq

    Poll: Is FSD Worth the Cost?

    Seriously? Not only are you misquoting me, but then you're using that to rant about level 5 autonomy, which I said nothing about. Back on topic, Tesla has stated for several years that FSD is designed to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's...
  40. omgwtfbyobbq

    Poll: Is FSD Worth the Cost?

    While the features of EAP+FSD and AP+FSD are the same, I believe the language about availability of those features changed significantly. I remember EAP+FSD having something about being able to automatically drive somewhere with no input from the driver most of the time, and AP+FSD dropped that...
  41. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla YANKED FSD option without notice - Class Action lawsuit? Any Lawyers here? [Resolved]

    I don't believe Tesla go back and actually remove a feature after they make a sale, even if they intended to do it before the sale and sold it as not having the feature. There are many examples of sellers selling cars as some lower trim level than what they are. They can't go back after the sale...
  42. omgwtfbyobbq

    Somebody selling my wrecked model 3 VIN in a different car

    So theoretically, if someone had root in a 3, could they hardwire something small like a Raspberry Pi to monitor `sdv GUI_odometer <mileage>; sdv VAPI_odometer <mileage>` and set it back to whatever they want when the gateway resets it periodically? Asking for a friend... :P :P :P
  43. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla YANKED FSD option without notice - Class Action lawsuit? Any Lawyers here? [Resolved]

    Tesla can do that all day long as long as they do it before they sell the car. Doing it afterwords is where shiz gets tricky. It's clearly ridiculous to remove tangible items after a sale, like a third row seat, even if it was supposed to be removed and someone forgot, but since it's easy with...
  44. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's my guess. More to the point, they saw what happened when they went too far/fast with the 3 and had a few quarters with a bunch CAPEX on the books and minimal 3 production volume to show for it. I think they want to be absolutely sure they can get cell production down reliably first and...
  45. omgwtfbyobbq

    Range dropping abruptly at end of 50+ mile commute

    It could just be that Tesla's SOC calculation is in part a function of temperature, especially over a specific interval, eg 27-29C.
  46. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wouldn't you also have to ignore the Cybertruck and Semi, and maybe even the Y too? Tesla's currently at at PSR of ~3.2, and if Fremont can keep pace with Q4 production that could drop to ~2.5. 3 production from GF3 could get it well into the 1.x range. Adding Y production to the mix could put...
  47. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Are we really gonna get Tripped up on a Peloton of Pedo posts?
  48. omgwtfbyobbq

    MASTER THREAD: Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Ugh, that's a little bootsy. Have you asked them to show you how much energy the battery has via the diagnostic menu? Any tech should be able to do that at a service center. Correlating that with SOC should provide good feedback about how much capacity has dropped.
  49. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla in Park suddenly moved forward [air temp 33, snow on ground, parked on incline, OEM tires]

    If it's not an issue with tire traction, my suspicion is that a small layer of ice is freezing on the pads, so they stop the car when they initially actuate, but after however many seconds the ice melts after absorbing enough heat from the rotors and the car rolls downhill. I think someone...
  50. omgwtfbyobbq

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I couldn't not think of this after watching.

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