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  1. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Personal commentary? He made the statement regarding Tesla's infrastructure: "Tesla doesn't even have the backend infrastructure to process customer car data". That's about as close to address the factuality of his assertions as you can get. I deliberately did not quote some of his more...
  2. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Guess I'll have to retract that... just saw this: (Only because it's the weekend)
  3. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Comments like this don't buy him credibility:
  4. scaesare

    SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink

    Allow me to be rigorously clear: Making categorical assertions of what the actual issue is that concerns Tesla, without being in the inner circle of Tesla folks who know for a certainty, is speculation. Now, you may have a good argument to support your supposition, but that's exactly what it is.
  5. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, an integrated PowerWall V2G capability would make sense. The other functionality could be DC-DC style fast car charging... i.e. "Supercharger Lite" ... using the PowerWall pack...
  6. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, that's based on using in-car inverters.... I agree based on Phil's tear-down and analysis, that ain't happening with current in-car units. The scenario I posited bypasses that as an issue, and instead moves the DC->AC inverter functionality in to a hypothetical V2G capable hybrid Wall...
  7. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've been thinking about this. With the fast-charging capability, all Teslas have the contactors and control/logic circuitry necessary to connect the DC pack voltage directly to the chargeport. Rather than needing to incur the cost/space/weight of upgraded inverters in each car, Tesla could...
  8. scaesare

    SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink

    Well, I get your point about the "commissioner" of said report having a vested interest... but to compare SpaceX to either the Tobacco companies or Big Oil seems a little out of line, given what we now know about both of those industries. SpaceX hasn't demonstrated anything like that...
  9. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    (emphasis mine) Not entirely sure if you were refuting the point I was trying to make, but I think the highlighted point you make above is in line with my sentiment of "many factors" leading to the likely greater cost of oil as time progresses...
  10. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil." - Don Huberts, of Royal Dutch/Shell Corp. In support of your point, not only are renewables rapidly improving from a cost standpoint, but oil is going the opposite direction. Even...
  11. scaesare

    SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

    I find even more irony when a competing company, in second place, fires off some sort of publicly highly visible smart-aleck comment (i.e.- Bezos "welcoming to the club" Musk & SpaceX when they finally landed a Falcon 9, only to have Elon set the record straight on the difference between lading...
  12. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From the report, it's citing: In other news, in the last year, more iPhones have been reported to have had to be rebooted than Motorola Bricks.
  13. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As some of the following posts have alluded to, the nighttime charging scenario also has the effect of evening out the utilization of the grid and power generation, making it less "peaky". That means that, even with traditional fuel-burning plants, baseload generation can be used for a greater...
  14. scaesare

    Hey, saw your post about solar & farms in VA, and noticed we both live in same area.... Ashburn...

    Hey, saw your post about solar & farms in VA, and noticed we both live in same area.... Ashburn here. Wanted to let you know "Vienna" is mis-spelled in your profile... Take care.
  15. scaesare

    Wiki Falcon Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    Or, given that many folks are familiar with the old-skool figure for the F1 of 1.5 million pounds thrust, that totals 7.5 million pounds for the Saturn V... as compared to 16.7 million pounds of thrust for Super Heavy. Gah!
  16. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's impressive. You must be a conservative driver in that warm-weather state of yours. :)
  17. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually, efficiency is tangential to the battery pack chemistry (other than potential weight difference, but that' typically only a very small component of total efficiency). Efficiency is due to motors, inverters, gear-train, aero, tires, etc... That screenshot would imply 176Wh/mi. That's...
  18. scaesare

    SpaceX F9 - Nilesat 301 - SLC-40

    A sham, no doubt.
  19. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Searching the Battery Day transcript for "cooling", "cool", "thermal", "cap", and "end" the closest I could find was: Drew's comments, not Elon's, and doesn't talk about end cooling of cells in the pack.
  20. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks, and I'm not trying to beat a dead horse but as I mentioned/requested earlier, I know it was surmised by folks, but do you have any references for you assertion that Tesla mentioned this? I don't recall that, but there's a lot that they've said/shown, and I may have missed it. Thanks.
  21. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmm, I don't see any real evidence those are channels, as opposed to just corrugations to strengthen the cover. Can't see a lower half to make a tube, no manifolds, etc... Additionally given that both positive and negative connections are on the cell top, there would seem to be complexity in...
  22. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I know that was discussed as a possibility, but neither the pack cutaway at the CyberRodeo: Nor the recent Munro glimpe: seem to have any indication of that... I'd be interested if the factory events you mention suggest otherwise.
  23. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do you have a source/pic of some sort of cooling mechanism attached to the ends of cells?
  24. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are now speaking of an individual short seller, rather then the practice of short selling globally. That's not what you referred to when you said: And, as your previous post addresses, Gates likewise was not speaking of his specific individual position: You've attempted to reframe the...
  25. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From, ironically, the SEC: Excerpt from Shorting America That's what I was afraid of.
  26. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    “The longer you wait to fire someone the longer it has been since you should have fired them” ― Elon Musk, as quoted by Ashlee Vance
  27. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    [SNIP of many excellent points regarding the Boring transit network] In conjunction with this point, I had some thoughts along these lines as well. To avoid clogging up this thread further, I'll just post the link to them HERE.
  28. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Associating Musk with a fringe group he has no known connection with: Check Suggesting he is part of some sort of "conspiracy": Check Stating a strict political stance that is contrary to many of his stated viewpoints/goals: Check Calling him the name of a historically negative political...
  29. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So is this the first time we've heard the name TRIP chip? Assume that's Tesla's custom NN chip.....
  30. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure if this response is supporting the assertions made by @StateoftheArt & @captkerosene , or not....
  31. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There's an implied "/s", right? There's GOT to be an "/s".....
  32. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Unfortunately solar adoption in the US seems to be facing similar obstacles, at least in some areas. My Dad and Brother have solar in CA, and in the last few years, it's become much less financially tenable, largely from utility companies enacting regulation changes to their benefit. The recent...
  33. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The parallels between the petroleum industry's current tactics as documented in the recent Frontline Big Oil documentary and those of the tobacco companies' actions 40-50 years ago as reported on in the Merchants of Doubt documentary were disturbingly similar.
  34. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That was somewhat tongue in cheek after Rogozin wrote about him being accountable though.... That having been said, I don't put it past The Bad Guys attempting something nefarious.
  35. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm genuinely interested in what you disagree with regarding this, @captkerosene
  36. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Your post brings up a good point: Not only do we need to be past the tipping point, the subsequent adoption needs to be rapid enough that we don't get TO the global warming tipping point...
  37. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah, 70% of the remaining energy is lost, my bad. Thanks @mongo
  38. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I see both sides of the argument you and @Krugerrand are making. While Tesla has advanced the EV/sustainable energy movement significantly, the thing that gives me pause as to if it's really past the tipping point, is that it seemed that way previously, even apparently to Elon. And yet he has...
  39. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If 12+70=82% of crude energy is lost, doesn't that leave 18% of useful energy left to do actual work?
  40. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah... hence my inclusion of his words "up to" in my quote of him. Even if only half that amount, it could be over 2X the range of quarterly profit he mentioned....
  41. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmmm, whilst that post stipulates ~$200M for the leases expiring currently, he suggests that will grow: "... a gain of up to $9.4B recognizable over the next 12 quarters" Unless I'm missing something, that's actually an average of over $750M per quarter, no?
  42. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm not entirely sure I agree for all situations. Extreme cold and/or towing cut that range significantly. I'm just not convinced batter swap is an answer....
  43. scaesare

    Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing developments

    Interesting, they are concerned about possible recontact ... Cool, thanks @mongo
  44. scaesare

    Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing developments

    Seems like it carries the burned out SRBs for an awfully long time...
  45. scaesare

    Reusing Boosters: Launch, Land, and Re-Launch

    Cool thanks... targeting 15 re-uses with consideration of what it takes to do 20!
  46. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Which was converted in to a battery swap station.

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