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  1. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    James knows a ton. The blurb you shared is not interesting to me. Can't sugar coat it more than that.
  2. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed, but I'm not a hand-wringer, not sure I've ever done that. I'm reminded of...
  3. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quick data point. I'm currently at Tesla Bellevue waiting on a tire fix. This place is buzzing and folks are hustling. End of quarter push.
  4. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wow! I want my $2! "Through the Emergency Load Reduction Program (ELRP) pilot, you will receive $2 for every additional kWh your Powerwall delivers during an event." Edit: Ninja'd by @Matias
  5. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I respect what they've accomplished, however it all deterministic code, no AI. All programming is static as opposed to learning. Their hardware seems impressive, however appears to be more simple mechanical prototypes rather than complex multi articulated joints and a purely functional...
  6. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My read on Elon is that he is clearly frustrated at the 4680 and structural ramp, from an engineering perspective. And clearly frustrated at the pandemic Shanghai shutdown as it pertains to supply chain, logistics, ramp of expansion and overall throughput. One of my worst meetings with him was...
  7. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Joe is saying about 50 Model Y's per day leaving on carriers from Austin...FYI
  8. Discoducky

    Replacing windshield requires camera calibration reset and a few other service issues

    Here's what the person said to me and what I said...this felt to me like the "press any key" moment.
  9. Discoducky

    Replacing windshield requires camera calibration reset and a few other service issues

    PSA, the service center did NOT reset camera calibration and AP/FSD was working but drove way to the right side of the lane. I had to reset it manually. I suggested that the software team implement a Pri 0 bug fix to deterministically detect when the camera is unplugged from the canbus during...
  10. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sure, check the other threads and this YouTube video has some solid data after 1 year of production
  11. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Better thread for that info: Solar roofs installed in the last 3 months and it is in the Tesla Energy section for even more!
  12. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Again, I feel the opposite, durability is a key metric for a taxi, as is ease of maintenance. With electricity costs so low, I think that is much lower in priority versus a Y or 3.
  13. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This statement seems like a very thinly veiled attempt to say that they are laying off thousands of people for 3 years in Spain and Germany. Excerpt from article... "Employees in Valencia and Saarlouis have been told that near-term restructuring will be required and that its size would be...
  14. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Now that I comprehend this post in its entirety, I see what you mean, I think. Happy to say that time will tell on all your points...and for the record I think the opposite. Above $30k, cars are still utility, functional and mainstream. When you get into the >$70k range I start to agree...
  15. Discoducky

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Somewhat interesting data point is that another spike at that level and height is also for 7/15 expiry...
  16. Discoducky

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Anyone been watching the $810 put spike for the past week or so? Did this appear recently or is it a new spike?
  17. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Not sure what you mean, could you explain further please?
  18. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Key metric will be when does the CT ramp exceed that of the Lightning and Rivian variants. Any guesses? I'll say Q4 2023 CT ramp will be >1000/week
  19. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is at the CVPR (Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition) Expo, with it seems the biggest booth and lots of opportunities for AI engineer recruiting. Over the years, the companies that are doing the most with AI have all had a huge presence here. 2066 papers accepted! Hopefully some...
  20. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    And I wonder if we'll ever really know who's decision it was to not push for a 'from the ground up' truck chassis from the beginning. I fear that singular decision may have done Ford in. Time will tell, but if CT ramps up fast next year it is simply game over (and yes they'll continue to sell...
  21. Discoducky

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I wonder how much of this is the battery pack cost rising? I'd imagine it is the bulk majority and I wonder how much this is going to impact the Lightning.
  22. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think I'd be driving/own a Tesla if it had a 5 sec WOT limitation. I literally do this everyday...multiple times...it is my joy. And if Ford does further limit WOT, I think a class action is inevitable.
  23. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    2.5 acres and I really need a powerful wood chipper, but I've forbidden any gas to live on my mountain property. I might have to come out of retirement and go work for Greenworks and yes, I've looked at their JDs, their AI is no bueno.
  24. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We are mowing and posting via Starlink on sunshine! 😎
  25. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You just can't make this stuff up.... https://www.dw.com/en/german-dieselgate-trial-begins-without-ex-vw-boss-martin-winterkorn/a-59193263
  26. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Show me any vehicle that can OTA anything but infotainment (at scale) and I'll show you possible competition.
  27. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FTFY. Change how you think, expect/accept they are bots first, I'm serious, it is out of control. Another thing to notice is how fast the bots respond, within a second they've written an entire sentence and posted a gif. Humans can't do that and yes, I have very fast internet (thanks Starlink!).
  28. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, but they are mostly bots. After you work in AI for awhile and read a bunch of what AI writes, you get a really good feel for it and lemme tell you...most of that sugar is AI. I'll read about 10 to 20 and ALL the comments feel "bot-ish". For those that don't know, the cost for someone to...
  29. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Very well said and it is in stark contrast to legacy ICE reducing prices for their EVs (Bolt) as a demand lever and then stealerships applying 'markups' as demand levers. The divergence is sweet irony.
  30. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FYI, a video is not evidence of a security vulnerability; The preponderance of evidence is much higher.
  31. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Assuming this is a valid attack and the appropriate vectors and surface vulnerability was shown/demonstrated, I would also expect an OTA update fix. Remember, Tesla has specific requirements for submitting security issues. If this does meet those criteria, a fix will be made and I hope those...
  32. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Evidence isn't provided. Possibly FUD. Happy to review when available...
  33. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2022/06/15/stellantis-sterling-stamping-plant-layoffs-jobs/7633223001/ Legacy ICE pain going up.
  34. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed and to put it more bluntly, they've either pushed to far with the limits of the drivetrain and were complicit, naive or ignorant. None of those are going to end well. And I'd bet money there are several engineers who tried to stop it but we're overridden by managers. For instance, we...
  35. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Fed rate hikes are currently the ultimate lagging indicator. And are causing instability not stability. There is no good reason for 0.75 with the current data. Hindsight is 20/20 but it seems obvious they have little to no idea what is happening with the economy. If they continue with 0.75...
  36. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny, Munro just posted a wiring video which covers some of what I mentioned and more not good stuff (very tight bends, looping, extra long unnecessary runs, orphaned cables with connectors, extra clips...etc). At the end it is mentioned that they will continue to deep dive into wiring so more...
  37. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Happy to see these two talking (they both highly respect one another), hope to see Francois post something publicly after they talk. Francois is reasonable, to a point (let's say he can be very opinionated about his code), he's also a genius, super smart and currently employed by Google...
  38. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yep, if it was said with the word "relevant" or "reasonable" or "material" then that would mean there actually is something to talk about. However, if the 'concerns' are from flat earthers and how could tunnels possibly work then that is a different 'concern'.
  39. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I should always explain acronyms. Engineering Change Order (ECO). This is how you change something on the production line. ECOs are usually done by legacy ICE in big batches usually occurring quarterly at a maximum or yearly at a minimum. Tesla does several per day; Elon has mentioned this...
  40. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Rivian teardown was hard to watch from an engineering perspective. They need like a million ECOs to make that thing cost effective to build. I wish them the best however and hope they can do fast changes. Step one, fix the cabling spaghetti!
  41. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmm, how could overheating contactors be an issue in only half of vehicles, but over the entire shipped population? I'd expect this to include all vehicles. Only a running change would result in a difference in builds and Ford doesn't do that. This seems indicative of either Ford being told by...
  42. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What is your expectation of "full production"?
  43. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I like Dillon and I think that it does not matter if 4680s are ramping slower than expected as they are now in customer hands (genie is out of the bottle and it won't be long before scale issues are solved). Tesla makes the impossible a little late and they are working as fast as they can.
  44. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My assumption is that this is totally in play for splitting prior to Aug 31st (employee ESPP advantages) and splitting again possibly just after AI #2 (currently Sept 30th but originally Aug 19th) if there is a run up and then possibly announcing another share increase if SP has risen again...
  45. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wonder if Tesla intended 4680s to ship right before announcing the split? Is there a potential benefit?
  46. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Almost exactly the same as my 60kWh 2013 S! I was at 244 when I sold it last year.
  47. Discoducky

    Elon & Twitter

    Humans talking to bots and/or paid influencers is what this thread should be renamed to. I see new logins making bold claims and it feels insincere.
  48. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Who knows how f'ing huge a milestone this for an actual customer to have 4680s?
  49. Discoducky

    Elon & Twitter

    This says he did waive due diligence...and that he's only getting public data, not the complete cohort Twitter uses. https://www.axios.com/2022/06/08/elon-musk-twitter-data-bots
  50. Discoducky

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I honestly don't care either way, but if prismatic is shipping then that does bode well for better, faster scale.

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