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    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Considering that the Model 3 is not available in Europe and Asia until 2019 and that the Model Y is years away the list for 2018-2020 is important. These competitors will eat mind- and marketshare from Tesla, and there will be additional high-speed charging networks (IONITY in Europe, Electrify...
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    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months: - Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV) - Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs) - Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3) - BMW iX3 SUV and i4...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I didn't talk about Chinese car makers (except for BYD in passing, they make both cars/bateries, mostly sell commercial vehicles only outside of China). CATL makes batteries and supplies / will supply Western car makers. That includes high-end customers such as BMW and Daimler / Mercedes:
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The auto makers will, no elves (or tents) involved. Take for example Daimler. They will have 8 battery factories globally: Daimler to build battery factories in Sindelfingen, Untertuerkheim Some already completed in Germany, more coming for a total of eight. And that‘s just Daimler...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Ok, so Model3 should be mostly correct (since sold in US only plus a few in Canada), but did you use US numbers only for S and X unit sales? Even adjusting S and X for international sales (and generously adding storage batteries) the numbers don’t add up with Elon’s claims. Here’s CATL alone...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Let’s not get lost in details, but Honda has two JVs in China: Dongfeng-Honda. That Honda XR-V comes with a completely different front end and backend design to differ from the Honda Vezel sold by Guangqi Honda (See Wikipedia). So these will likely be the two different EVs as well. Funnily...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I like to talk about numbers. - Solar. Tesla or Tesla execs mentioned annual output at either 10GW, 1 GW and 1-2 GW of solar output (at full ramp). All these estimates were given within a few months in 2016-2017. There’s obviously a huge gap between making 1GW or 10GW per year. So which number...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    So, a simpler question. Forget about Volvo. When will Tesla cross 600k car units / year? Model S and X are (combined) at ~ 100k units per year with no major growth projected: Horace Dediu on Twitter Here are Elon’s estimates up to 2020: Horace Dediu on Twitter So since he predicted 1M...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form: Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Synergies? David Robinson: Tesla's solar business is shrinking. Here's what it means for Buffalo. I see a shrinking business, see chart in link. (Also note the financial and other ongoing obligations Tesla has to the State for GF2). But you are free to add solar revenue if we assume a simple...
  11. T

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Maybe you don’t need a battery factory since you can order battery cells from LG Chem, CATL etc. That’s what all large car makers are doing. LG Chem just started building another 32 GWh EV battery factory in China... Capital / funding is the bottleneck here: Let me know how Tesla can finish...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I wrote < 1%. That’s a niche. Simple question: When will Tesla sell more cars than Volvo (rounded-up 2017 numbers at 600k) per year? (Volvo is growing sales, but let’s freeze Volvo at 2017 numbers) Volvo is a good benchmark example because it sells only into higher-end segments, is profitable...
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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    How about, just for once, not put words in my mouth or twist what I wrote a long time ago? I never said there’s no demand for EVs. I wrote/predicted that there will be a long evolutionary journey over 1-2 decades due to slow replacement cycles and batteries only becoming cost-competitive with...
  14. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    NFLX vs TSLA? Let’s compare two bubbly stocks (granted, from two very different sectors) in a late-stage bull market (as of early 2018)?! Comparative valuations of bubble stocks make little to no sense imho - except for chasing momentum and selling to a bigger fool before the bubble pops. A...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Tesla's debt obligations and debt schedule... $TSLA Debt Expiration Schedule, $MM What scares me the most is SolarCity toxic balance sheet full of leased assets, cash equity debt, etc. Moreover, $TSLA pledged $4.0 billion dollars worth of assets as collateral under debt obligations. Source...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    What’s your time horizon? 2018 only? This is the long-term fundamentals thread. Audi, Porsche Mercedes and others are already re-tooling their factories - this is not PR. For launches in 2018 and 2019. I have been talking about 2017-2025: VW Group is ordering billions in EV batteries. New...
  17. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I have posted detailed (with sources, links) information: - Upcoming competition in long-range EVs - Upcoming competition in storage and EV batteries - Stress in Tesla's debt and balance sheet / balance sheet That is very much info relevant to long-term fundamentals.
  18. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Several years? Tesla is burning $, they can’t continue that for a long time - especially given upcoming direct competition with deeper pockets. See my previous posts upthread for details. Instead of (re-)posting many charts here, have a look at this informative Twitter thread: Tesla Daily on...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    They are building them mostly in Asia / by large Asian suppliers around the World on the cell level. Very low margins. A hard business. The final battery assembly is then (often) done by the car makers. Take VW for example, they signed huge contracts years in advance: VW Just Gave Tesla a...
  20. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    It won’t take until 2025. At least two major (and many smaller ones such as Fastned etc.) networks will be operational in Europe by around 2020 already. Ionity (mentioned before) is just one of them: First look at Ionity ‘ultra-fast’ charging network map of planned stations The second...
  21. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Tesla‘s favorite “200 miles” range number is totally arbitrary. Even so, there are several EVs at close to that range or above it on sale today (not counting vehicles only sold in China). Listing the most important launches only: - Renault ZOE - Nissan Leaf (soon with a ~225 mile version, 150...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    How so? DC charging at 150kW+ is done using CCS or Chademo plugs outside of China. Tesla (still) has no CCS adapter available - and the clunky Chademo adapter (for the current slower Chademo standard) sells for $450.... Model S/X CHAdeMO Adapter But let‘s not get lost in details, this thread...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Only some others? Maybe in 2018-2019, but not by 2020. 100-150 pure BEV models will be available around the world by 2022-2025 (not all of them in all regions, hence the wide range). Second, the Model3 is not the first mass-produced EV, that was/is the Nissan LEAF - (still) made in three plants...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Did you note the word PHEVs in that quote from 2014? It’s obvious that PHEV releases were/are front-loaded in earlier years whereas pure (long-range) BEV releases will arrive later in this timeframe. Look at the release schedules of every major car maker - BMW is a good example: More PHEVs...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I’m not here to predict arbitrary marketshare on long-range EVs. Sufficient to say that with 100-150 long-range EV models coming from major car makers in 2018-2025 it will happen in that time frame.
  26. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Your numbers are off. As others pointed out you mix US sales for some brands with Tesla’s global sales. Use global data for everyone. Look at the 2017 numbers to get a good indication (except for Nissan, 2017 was a transition from Leaf I to Leaf II obviously, 2018 numbers will be much higher)...
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    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Nobody can predict the future but 2020 is my educated bet based on growing competitive pressures*, Tesla’s current debt and balance sheet / financials as well as the general state of the stock market (US bull market in a very, very long cycle since early 2009 is coming to an end one day). In...
  28. T

    BMW says they can't mass produce EVs until 2020

    Sorry, but do you know how long it tales to develop a modern car (even if it’s based on a platform)? BMW is properly testing their cars - the iX3 is already testing today: SPIED: BMW iX3 caught winter testing in Scandinavia BMW iX3 to introduce brand's fifth-generation EV power in 2020 |...
  29. T

    BMW says they can't mass produce EVs until 2020

    I guess you aren‘t familiar with BMW‘s EV plans? 12 long-range BEVs (see Gen 5 in chart below) are coming plus 13 PHEVs... They have contracts with large Asian battery (cell) suppliers and there are several companies / consortia working on 150-350 kW charging networks. Ionity is one of them...
  30. T

    BMW says they can't mass produce EVs until 2020

    Ask Tesla? Was this question ironic? Tesla is requiring billions of dollars each calendar year (debt, dilution or a mix using convertible bonds) to stay afloat and keep going. And how was BMW doing in 2017? Of course BMW could make / have made more EVs earlier, but it would result in...
  31. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    By now? No, this is what I wrote (my April 2017 SA article on TSLA): “Tesla will encounter direct competition in all EV segments by 2018-2021 for the first time. By 2020-2025, all major car makers will have launched cars on dedicated EV platforms (bringing down costs further and enable...
  32. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    I’m not a day-to-day short-term trader. Wait and see what happens with TSLA till / by around ~ 2020. This is the year when competitive forces will hit Tesla with full force on a global scale. I just came here to post the bond opinion piece - more than often bond markets predict long-term...
  33. T

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Tesla’s bonds show dark yellow warnings ⚠️ : Source: A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds PS: I have been ridiculed for my signature, but I’m quite confident the TSLA stock story will play out as predicted by around 2020.
  34. T

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    9 months later I have no reason to change my signature. In fact, I’m convinced that the TSLA stock story will unravel by around 2020. The clock is ticking - and energy storage / storage batteries (as well as semis etc) proved just to be the latest distraction.
  35. T

    Dyson plans to launch electric car in 2020

    My point is simple (see my quotes above or below): Dyson plans to launch electric car in 2020 This isn't Dyson's 2020 version of the 2008 Roadster as the OP claimed. The interesting parts of Dyson's project isn't the EV but the solid-state batteries - and the confirmation that there was a...
  36. T

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    2018 is so far away (that's when Audi's EV will ship). Or isn't it? Do you think the plant in Belgium is just for show? A second car is already underway for 2019... Audi e-tron Sportback to join e-tron SUV at Belgian plant A third one will follow by 2020. And in your opinion is the enrtire VW...
  37. T

    Dyson plans to launch electric car in 2020

    Tell me more about the solid-state battery from Elon back in 2008. I somehow missed that news. Dyson to Spend £1 Billion Making ‘Radical’ Electric Car
  38. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Did you read the article, including the various quotes by Tesla engineers working on AP and FSD? Or you dismiss it before reading it? Otherwise it's the common TMC echo chamber in action - dismissing negative or critical news. (PS: Why was the FSD thread linked above locked? Strange, lots of...
  39. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Yes, a simple software upgrade and all these cars magically get full FSD capabilities? Pay no attention to such articles... Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among its Engineers Or the fact that FSD HW built into 2016-2017 cars will be completely outdated by 202X. I...
  40. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Just like Elon Musk jumping from 1GW in solar capacity to 10GW and then (as soon as SCTY deal was done and voting over) back to 1GW. A delta of 9 GW. Peanuts, right? Same for the CFO promising positive cash-flows again and again for years...yes, it's apparently all due to "faster expansion"...
  41. T

    Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

    What will happen after Xavier? Nvidia is not asleep. As we all know, Xavier will ship (at least samples) in late 2017. There will be new major advances until 2020, Xavier "1.0" will be outdated by 2020 as well given the advancements from 2015 to 2017: NVIDIA Teases Xavier, a High-Performance...
  42. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Excellent, then get an even better rating for the packaged fund? Where did I hear about this back in 2006-2007? Hmmm... A sane overview / disccussion of Tesla's bond issue here: Behold the Sheer Artistry of Tesla's Bond - Bloomberg Gadfly Downvote my posts all you want. Tesla will face...
  43. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Tesla should be scared of itself (and primarily its current CEO) because it has no focus on a few core products and execution. All the projects listed above your answer will involve huge amounts of cap-ex - and continued fresh sources of outside capital. One upcoming market downturn or...
  44. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Do you think these 150kW+ chargers for both CCS and Chademo will just be installed for fun? It's clear that most new EVs (especially all long-range EVs with larger batteries) coming in 2018-2020 and beyond will support these higher kW numbers. Many car makers have already said so when talking...
  45. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Out-innovate? Based on what by 2020-2025 when everybody will be offering long-range EVs and (charging) infrastructure will be there in all important car markets? Same old, same old... This long list of Tesla "projects" shows a severe lack of focus (especially the upcoming truck and the huge...
  46. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Your question proves you haven't read my link for one minute.* I wrote about 150kW+ (even 350kW+ for CCS) CCS and Chademo stations for highway charging stations - coupled with 50kW+ for urban/destination areas. It's all in the link.... ______ * Same for most Tesla longs not reading the 10-Q...
  47. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    2018-2020 is when these long-range cars start to arrive (first iterations, Bolt, Leaf 2, Audi SUV, Jaguar SUV, Mercedes EQ etc.). 2020-2025 is when the market will be flooded with long-range EVs based on dedicated BEV platforms. I haven't changed my forecast.
  48. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    It's just Elon Musk announcing so many new "projections" and unrealistic deadlines lately (just three examples: FSD claims, Tesla solar capacity, Model3 ramp for 2018 after missing 2017 projections by a magnitude* - see my last posts for details) that's it's worth pointing out the reality vs...
  49. T

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Basically all the examples you listed (with the exception of the upcoming Ioniq revision, the Bolt and the LEAF 2) are about short-range EVs from the present or past. As I outlined in my post (and before that for years) wait until 2018-2021 for all large car makers to release long-range EVs...
  50. T

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Regarding these projects in Australia. Did Panasonic and Samsung recently announce a merger? Tesla’s giant new Powerpack project in Australia will use battery cells made by Samsung What happened to all those Panasonic cells shooting off the lines in Nevada for ESS projects? Clue me in why...

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