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  1. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Albemarle just doubled their lithium supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/albemarle-plans-major-us-lithium-processing-plant-2022-06-27/
  2. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You think the 500 most innovative female engineers in the world are inherently lazy and seek the path of least resistance? These people can go anywhere they want and work for any company they please. Yes 1/4 of them are already not willing to work in the US, but you can't deny we just lost...
  3. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And I'd add this is a really good week to look at the options chart above and watch how MM's respond on each day's price movements. We're trending up, so you might see this $730-740 preferred range "slip" to $770-790 as MM's then try to protect the even bigger $800 call wall.
  4. TheTalkingMule

    SCOTUS Roe v Wade posts

    No need to debate anything, I think you can look around and pretty clearly read the temperature of the nation. One could state with relative confidence a good 20-30% of talented female engineers now consider working in Texas a nonstarter. You can argue the rationality of those feelings, but I...
  5. TheTalkingMule

    SCOTUS Roe v Wade posts

    IMO it's not OT if half the world now can't be hired as an employee at our global headquarters. How many highly educated innovative female engineers are interested in working in such a backward environment?
  6. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Roughly 70% of petroleum goes to transport I believe. The EV impact will be massive no doubt, @jhm has done some modeling. The great thing about demand destruction is that you don't only see a drop from fuel demand, but also the barrels of crude used to turn crude into fuel. It's gonna be...
  7. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    What do you want him to say? 2040 is about as far out as you can push the conclusion of the EV transition, so his comments need to incorporate that. These guys know they have the press on their bench, so a simple statement is all that's needed. No one's going to actually look into it after...
  8. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Moderator’s substitution for what HAD been written here: I CAN THINK OF NO reason Supreme Court decisions of a sociopolitical nature EVER can be considered as appropriate for this thread. And neither can YOU. Nor, apparently, can a good number of others, based on the large number amount of...
  9. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just checking in from the beach. Sounds like 4680 is cancelled and Tesla is pivoting to online retail? Love it! We're coming for you Sears Roebuck! Have we thought about getting into oil extraction? I hear it's blowing up.
  10. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm on beach beach with my only position to watch being BPS 6/24 $500/$400. This SP action is most welcome! Probably close these out Thurs morning and check out for the week. Is this Act 1 of the great 2Q22 "we're gonna have a bad quarter" CC steamroll? Good luck to all. Text me when we're...
  11. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oil futures are teetering and looking to fall. BTC is back up. TMC bickering is morphing, meandering further OT, and growing. All the major macros are positive today! I'm off to the beach.....
  12. TheTalkingMule

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Putin is almost certainly the world's wealthiest human, by a long shot. MBS might have had a chance, but he's now a distant 2nd.
  13. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That lone maroon for in the southeast probably cost more than all the renewables and storage dots combined.
  14. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Neither of those are documentation of a supply shortfall. There's more excess oil & products floating around US commercial supplies today than at Christmas. Or at the beginning and first few weeks of the war. Or at this time in 2018. And since nowhere else is transparent, and since all...
  15. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "Dealing with"? Is he in your living room and refusing to leave til you change his mind? These vintage "demand concerns" will be utterly sill by the time 2Q earnings come out and guidance is reaffirmed. You can just leave these folks be.
  16. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good sign for easing inflation? Cheaper inputs for Tesla? Hopefully this is a precursor to crude oil futures dropping. https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/top-three-aussie-miners-shed-11-bln-market-value-commodity-rout-accelerates-2022-06-20/
  17. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    I see. It's the refinery capacity now. The last three months the headlines have been all about crude flow disruption. There is not documented shortage of crude or refined products of any significant amount anywhere in the world. Certainly not in the US or China or Europe.
  18. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One of the things the good people of this site have drilled into my head over the years is that share prices and market cap aren't a pile of dollars. There's nobody chipping away at the pile when it goes down. Nobody needs to shovel anything back on a pile to make it go up. It's a simple...
  19. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    And my logic on $1200c is even simpler than that. A) I already had some and was sick of looking at the highe avg purchase price 😜 B) That's about where I think we can be on that date. I'm not counting on anything, but I feel there's a rip coming long before Nov, so I'll take more leverage...
  20. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And this tells us everything we need to know about Ford's current thinking. At their very foundation, they still want EVs to fail. People can say that's just the PR creatives going off on their own tangent, but it isn't because clearly Jim Farley is fully on board with the narrative. F...
  21. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm starting to think the uptick rule's only purpose is keeping hedge funds from shorting so MM's can naked short and/or buy(cover) to move SP even easier. I mean....is it a coincidence that uptick was triggered the day before triple witching? You'd think someone would dissect this mess and...
  22. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Tried to walk the line between LEAPs and YOLOs today as I found myself with the last few weeks of BPS selling proceeds sitting in cash. Bought a handful of 11/19 $1200c around $11.30 to add to my pile and average down to something more respectable. I simply can't sit here and not Mule out just...
  23. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have no pom-poms, merely a giant cardboard arrow pointing to the earnings, growth, and vision. Everyone is quite crazy these days, I need to guide them into the light.
  24. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was thinking about the E-stang recall today. If Ford can't get the EV Mustang even remotely right......what do we think the Hummer EV rollout is gonna look like? I predict we're going to see a screwup very early on that's so hilarious people will think they were purposely sabotaged. The...
  25. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    At the same ratio as everyone else. They're selling(are able to export) all the crude they care to sell or are capable of extracting at the moment. The point being, this narrative of sanctions or the war having some sort of impact on their ability to export with ease is utter nonsense. The...
  26. TheTalkingMule

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Just got a Fidelity IPO notice for this Ivanhoe operation that's looking to mine inside the US for the renewables/EV transition. Not a tech company itself, but the raw materials for EV/storage tech...
  27. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We're past the tipping point where high oil prices are needed to spur the transition to renewables & EVs. I think we're likely raw materials and political will(corruption) constrained for the duration. I wanna move forward to the post-OPEC world. We're close!
  28. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No no no! You gotta let the snippiness build(and break) organically. How do you think we got this far? They'll be holding hands and shopping for islands soon enough.
  29. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So much bullish signaling today, my eyes can barely take all the flashing lights! Potential @Krugerrand & @AudubonB leg wrestling competition. Posting of historically low market PE ratios labeled as "middling". Surprise glut of Russian crude supply! 2018 @TheTalkingMule would be buying 6/24...
  30. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    And now we're starting to see some actual documentation of Russian oil flows, disrupted by sanctions, simply being thrown onto boats and sold elsewhere. Imports of Russian crude by China and India are up 1Mb/d compared to pre-war levels. Turkey has doubled their imports, all the other regional...
  31. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Don't look now kids, but the crude oil trade might be cracking. Supplies are trending up, demand has peaked, and recession worries are building. I think if we all just pretend the world is ending for two more weeks, we can get WTI back down below $70. Then we're all set.
  32. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Overlay earnings and see what that looks like.
  33. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can only beg you people to have a better attitude and get this rally rolling. The execution is up to you! I was focused and fired up this morning. My 5 year old neice today told me she wants an electric car when she grows y. Because she "doesn't want to drive". So good.
  34. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    We've been in a similar boat for a while and I'm gonna assume you have margin constraints that won't let you convert to a calendar spread and manage from there. Or you're in an IRA like me. So your options really are to take the pure risk of holding out for 1000 to roll for credit(or God...
  35. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's triple witching eve, this kind of shovedown was to be expected. And it's already moderating as we move past 8am to 8:30. Sure looks like MM's are committed to hold 700 for TSLA this week and likely have similar goal for the other big names. I suspect they'll eat quite a lot of buying...
  36. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    These guys are all temporarily aligned because it's super easy to do and the payoff is huge. Once the Nov elections are over these whores will turn on each other again.
  37. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I expect this attitude to be adjusted by tomorrow. Get some rest.
  38. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK folks, the Fed is done. Elon is done selling shares. There's a meeting tomorrow with Twitter employees where hopefully a revised deal gets announced at a slightly lower price. Or maybe even the original offer. Either way, we very likely get to put a bow on this entire chaotic downswing in...
  39. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Certainly possible, but macro sentiment seems to be reversing to me. I'd like to see a couple weeks of WTI drifting down first, but it feels like pushing down on a Friday might be harder now. It is triple witching, so we'll see. Lots of incentive to build up a naked short position this week...
  40. TheTalkingMule

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Like everyone here, I love these "maximum movement" analyses and appreciate you putting them together. Since the Fed is today, it got me thinking.....Should we dissect these large moves a bit more? Like are these 20%+ down or up movements in SP precipitated by the same thing most of the time...
  41. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Personally I find that a bit comforting. Like when Goldman clearly would have gone belly-up in 2009 if I didn't bail them out. In 2007 I was dead certain that Goldman ran the world and that would never change. To see the Fed get pushed around a bit gives me a similar feeling that maybe the...
  42. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't see them holding 700, even through today. Volume seems pretty brisk and they can only eat so many buy orders before the algo calls reverse and has to unwind a bit. It's not like anyone is actually selling large chunks of TSLA today.
  43. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    By definition, Fed moves MUST NOT be predictable. That's the whole point, there needs to be a somewhat random variable that moves unexpectedly but generally in the "better" direction for a healthy economy. Clearly the market loves this .75 hike and we now have 3 quarter point rate cuts back in...
  44. TheTalkingMule

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Good weekly US crude report today if you're looking to bring down futures and break this "inflation". US production to ked up a tiny bit to 12Mb/d for the first time since the pandemic started. Still below our 13.5Mb/d rate from just before. Exports way up. Crude supplies up(equal to the SPR...
  45. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Static grid charges/fees don't necessarily replace cost covering shortfalls, most of the time they simply replace lost profits as utility production is displaced by solar. As I mentioned up thread, and especially true in Pennsylvania, regions with lower solar adoption rates definitely save...
  46. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We're a good long way from that in most US markets. Solar adoption(with net metering) up to maybe 10% of total supply is a massive savings for all ratepayers. Rates make big jumps as additional capacity needs to be added to the grid. More demand at peak, more power plants needed, rates go up...
  47. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The corruption of the GWB/Cheney years started a transition that replaced coal with gas as a means of sourcing "cleaner" electricity. And it's continues right up til now. It's makes fracking more profitable as a lot of gas supply is the byproduct of searching for oil in places like the Permian...
  48. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Gas is the #1 source of electricity in the US and as of yesterday was up like 120% this year.
  49. TheTalkingMule

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We're so used to TSLA being attacked to the downside, we forget hedge funds don't care about Tesla. They just wanna make money manipulating valuations. Where does TSLA dump from here if 2Q is spun negatively? From $660 to maybe $560? With a LOT of effort....and risk if the okay doesn't work...

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