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  1. E

    FSD Beta 10.11

    Basically if auto wipers calls for the slowest continuous speed (or faster) and FSD is driving you get "FSD degraded warnings", and if FSD isn't activated it reverts back to the old visualization and you can no longer enable it until the auto wipers slow to intermittent speed or lower. To me it...
  2. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    My EDD just got pushed to August 26-October 21, was previously May-June. I assume it's because the trade-in odometer reading expires, and the profile becomes "incomplete" again.
  3. E

    FSD Beta 10.11

    I still encounter some places where FSD is regressed over non-FSD Autosteer. There is a road here with a lot of poorly marked lane edges/shoulder, and FSD will keep confidently pulling halfway into road shoulder, then it "sees" the lane edge again, and re-centers itself, over and over. There's...
  4. E

    FSD Beta 10.11

    This has been my update progression for a 2018 Model 3 RWD. To be honest I kind of struggle to notice improvements between the builds, especially recently. It's always been super inconsistent.
  5. E

    FSD Beta 10.11

    One weird quirk of 10.11 is it now highlights the lane it's changing into (like with highway NOA) but sometimes it randomly highlights the lane the car is already in. I think a slight shift in lane lines around intersections or center turn lanes can cause it to turn on briefly.
  6. E

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    I remain unconvinced that Elon even works at Tesla. Anyone could have made those Tweets with the same level of accuracy, no inside knowledge required. Let me try: "Beta 10.12 should be ready in about a week"
  7. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    My EDD for a 9/29 order just went from August 19-September 16 to June 7-July 19, so yay?
  8. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    MY AWD, blue paint, white interior, tow package, 5 seats, no FSD Profile has been complete since a few days after I ordered. In fact they once assigned me a VIN back in October, and then removed it a few hours later. Occasionally the trade-in offer expires, and I have to update mileage or...
  9. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    I have an OD of 9/29 and delivery window is 8/18-9/16, yes that's right. I don't know if something is broken or what, but I'm conflicted between starting to make noise about it with Tesla or just letting it sit and take forever. I figure I'm locked in with Q3 2021 prices and the car will only...
  10. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    They only want updated mileage every 30 days, then new pictures after so many months. They offered $40,000 for a 2018 Model 3 LR RWD last October, then $44k just this last week for same car. I probably wouldn't sell it elsewhere unless I can get $48+ because I'd owe $4000 more due to 10% sales...
  11. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    Tesla wanted fresh pics of my Model 3 trade-in after 5 months of waiting, now their trade-in estimate increased $4000 since last September's order. I don't know what's going on anymore.
  12. E

    September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

    My EDD changed to August 19 - September 16 for an order date of 9/29/2021. What's really annoying is they assigned me a VIN last October shortly after I ordered, then it disappeared just a few hours later.
  13. E

    FSD Beta 10.10 Release Notes

    I didn't see this mentioned anywhere but I noticed on 10.10 that it will scale the size of vehicles on the visualization, more noticeable for cross traffic. It rendered a car as a super long limo-like vehicle when it was really more like a semi-truck. Never saw this on 10.8.x.
  14. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    I'm convinced the whole "recalibrate your cameras" thing is total placebo. The cameras continuously calibrate anyway, the only reason to use that option is if you make some change that totally invalidates the current calibration, like collision repairs, new windshield, etc.
  15. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Tried my usual route on 10.10.2, only saw regressions over 10.8.1. Car tried to go on a red light twice (the through lane turned green but car had a red arrow for its turn lane). When driving down a straight empty road it slowly edged over the center double yellow line and then moved back again...
  16. E

    Autonomous Car Progress

    It just comes down to the basic product requirements, Tesla makes a driver assist product (no evidence of a robotaxi) so it has to work everywhere, in every random owner's neighborhood street or dirt road, or it would be a pretty crappy product. And that means the intelligence has to be entirely...
  17. E

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Yeah I haven't bought into robotaxis being valuable yet, and I don't think any OEM would take liability for accidents in a personal vehicle that they don't own or maintain. If it's fleet owned, then sure. Otherwise it's total nonsense, if you're doing a driver assist thing like FSD I would be...
  18. E

    Autonomous Car Progress

    SAE levels just boil down to who is liable for accidents IMO. I.e. you can have the most advanced driving robot in the world (99.9999% reliability on every road anywhere) and you're still classified as level 2 because the driver must be present to avoid the OEM taking liability (why would they...
  19. E

    FSD Beta 10.10 Release Notes

    They still need to integrate everything into one build. Maybe its best to close out all these recalls with one release.
  20. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Reversing seems Yeah I've never done this in 20 years of driving. I can't see how they can program safe reversing behavior, the rear camera gets obscured so easily, I have to constantly wipe rain and dust off it.
  21. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    It will misidentify the shoulder here as a driving lane and lane change into it a half mile from a right turn.
  22. E

    When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?

    No one in Nebraska. It's a start maybe, but IMO "Robotaxi Babysitter" is a totally different role, not something you want your repair technicians doing, it's a waste of their skills and time. And Tesla doesn't have anywhere close to nationwide coverage, it's super sparse outside California and...
  23. E

    When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?

    Tesla doesn't seem to be working on anything resembling a L4 Waymo-like robotaxi business, it's all driver-assist features (i.e. Cruise Control++++), which I'd argue is actually a much better business. Tesla is able to sell features that don't exist for $12k/unit or $200/month while Waymo loses...
  24. E

    NHTSA compels Tesla to recall FSD feature

    No they can't, it's the opposite, it means you can be ticketed for driving under the speed limit.
  25. E

    Anyone else not getting 10.9?

    Mine rolls through stops in Chill FSD profile as well, in fact I've always been skeptical that those profiles do anything differently.
  26. E

    FSD AP improvements in upcoming v11 from Lex Fridman interview

    I think it's obvious that the abstraction of the world that the brain builds internally is far beyond what FSD is doing, and if you tried to reverse engineer the brain's internal representations while driving then it would be utterly incomprehensible, it definitely wouldn't look anything like...
  27. E

    FSD AP improvements in upcoming v11 from Lex Fridman interview

    From watching the Lex interview with Elon, I get the sense that Elon really believes that humans drive by constructing 3D vector spaces in our brains. It's just as crazy as the suggestion that you need to shoot lasers out of your head in order to see obstacles and drive. I can't speak for...
  28. E

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x: Anticipation & Discussion

    Single stack isn't just highways but also parking lots (i.e. smart summon's domain).
  29. E

    Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

    My bet is that FSD beta is going to go the way of Highway NOA. They'll get it to the point where it's kinda tolerable to use, then they'll ship it widely and it'll go into "maintenance mode" while they work on some shiny new thing... Like a MuZero-inspired end-to-end driving agent that also does...
  30. E

    GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

    Based on what? There's plenty of reading material about this. I.e. the Stanford team's paper. The leading team failed in 2004 because of GPS availability and IMU error on map localization, not because they ran into obstacles. They failed by running off the road because of localization drift...
  31. E

    Road markings make a HUGE difference: positive FSD Beta report

    Locally we have tons of "Botts dots" that are used for lane marking in lieu of painted lines and I feel the predictions are made much worse by these things, especially because they are sometimes sparse and easily occluded in traffic. A lot of times they will alternate between solid and dashed...
  32. E

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Not Elon but a long Twitter thread on how 10.5 FSD has improved the performance of the static obstacle voxel network.
  33. E

    GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

    Elon can say things that totally correct and obvious, and then the next moment have some incredibly dumb take. Like his insistence that Tesla not have vision-based driver monitoring for years, like jerking on the steering wheel is somehow an acceptable solution.
  34. E

    GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

    Sure adding Lidar for localization doesn't preclude using it for other purposes but I'm just saying that the localization requirements were the impetus to put Velodyne Lidar (a very esoteric sensor back in 2005) on the roof of cars in the DARPA Grand Challenge. It was the key addition that...
  35. E

    GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

    Well you're asking what happens if they're blocked/blinded, you need cameras to drive no matter what.. It's a question of system health and reliability. Cameras are the primary sensor for driving, maybe you can continue driving if 1 or 2 are blocked, but it depends on which ones. If you lose all...
  36. E

    GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

    There's no getting around that you need cameras to drive, it doesn't matter what other sensors you have on there. You need vision to read all the road markings and lights and so forth. The number of cameras, and the positioning, lens, image sensors, etc are all up for debate, but you always need...
  37. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    I feel like driving on roads with lots of curvature has regressed a bit. If I watch the path planner line, it will occasionally get all jumbled up at the far end of the prediction, and then this is followed by unwanted slowdowns of 3-5 mph. It'll do this randomly over and over where it never did...
  38. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    I noticed the reduction in jerky steering as well, path line is still jumpy but maybe they are doing more filtering downstream. I didn't notice any random slowdowns besides falsely stopping at intersections where it has right of way, etc. Some new badness I never saw before... it stopped...
  39. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Planner is a Monte Carlo tree search that finds the lowest cost path. So I imagine if there's an upcoming navigation maneuver then the path that best fits the navigation route is given a lower cost, if it diverges from the nav route the cost increases. So if there's no navigation maneuver...
  40. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Apparently the release notes came from an employee and the public rollout isn't expected until Sunday night.
  41. E

    Elon: 10.5 in about 10 days (roughly Nov 21)

    Looks like the release notes were spotted:
  42. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Nope, I'm too likely to disengage it before it gets that far.
  43. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Yes it has some "pass a slow/stopped lead car" policy and there's no warning. It's very erratic too, I've observed it momentarily trying to go around cars just taking their turns at stop signs or traffic lights. It will jerk the wheel suddenly to go around and then back to center within just a...
  44. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    10.5 sneak peek: Improved cross traffic velocity estimation by 2.5% precision, 1.25% recall.
  45. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    There's nothing in Elon's tweets about FSD that suggests he even works at Tesla, anyone could say the same things without insider information just by connecting dots together. I could easily confuse his Tweets with that 14 year old who was masquerading as a Tesla AP Engineer. "10.x is...
  46. E

    Apple Working Toward Fully Autonomous Car With No Steering Wheel or Pedals, Aiming to Launch in 2025

    I don't think we're at risk for the chip being the limiting factor, the software is 100% the limit for self-driving. It's limited by how fast you can fix bugs. Tesla will have HW4 ready to go in a year or so, and then we're back to having tons of headroom again.
  47. E

    Apple Working Toward Fully Autonomous Car With No Steering Wheel or Pedals, Aiming to Launch in 2025

    I can't see Apple ever selling cars, it just doesn't fit with their business. They sell premium/luxury tech products that are expensive yet attainable by the mainstream population (at least it is for Americans). Either they make a $30k cheap car that's attainable or they'll make a $70k fancy...
  48. E

    FD Beta : TomTom Map, Roundabouts and the Speedlimit

    It's funny but I found when the car makes a lane change because of upcoming map-based lane restrictions, it almost always takes me by surprise and I usually end up disengaging it. I only later realize it was reacting to a turn lane that is some 1+ miles down the road and was a valid thing to do...
  49. E

    Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

    Apparently 10.5 is still "on track" according to Elon's Twitter.

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