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  1. techmaven

    Richmond, VA Model 3 Owners and Prospective Owners Mixer

    Haven't been active since the start of COVID lock downs. Hopefully we can get back together this summer.
  2. techmaven

    Model Y or Mustang Mach-E

    Apparently you haven't followed the 2020 Ford Explorer issues. Mysterious problems disrupt delivery of 2020 Ford Explorer, Lincoln Aviator
  3. techmaven

    Which will be the bigger EV disrupter, Cybertruck or EV Mustang

    Ford has already stated that the first year's production is expected to be limited to 50,000 between both North America and Europe due to battery supply constraints.
  4. techmaven

    Which will be the bigger EV disrupter, Cybertruck or EV Mustang

    Game changer for Ford, maybe. Game changer for EVs overall? Definitely not. The costs are too high and the expected production rates too low for this vehicle to make any meaningful impact. It is, at best, an attempt to copy Tesla, but many years later.
  5. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, I am hoping that GM pushes hard for a revisit to the inventive. After all, Ford is likely riding on the coattails of GM, using LG cells and scaling that GM has been pushing in their supply chain. So as GM is running out of incentives, Ford as a laggard gets a reward for being late. GM has...
  6. techmaven

    Jaguar I-Pace

    Range tool on the I-Pace site: 17 mph avg, 18" wheels, no AC/heating, 20 degrees C: 292 miles of range 57 mph avg, 18" wheels, no AC/heating, 20 degrees C: 197 miles of range 57 mph avg, 20" wheels, AC/heating, 40 degrees C: 160 miles of range 57 mph avg, 18" wheels, AC/heating, 0 degrees C...
  7. techmaven

    Porsche Taycan - Tesla Rival Seen Today

    2020 Porsche Taycan Turbo prototype ride review | MOTOR That's AUD, so ~$90-95k USD. 240 kW is about 321 hp, 280 kW is 375 hp. That's decent, but remember, the Taycan is a heavy vehicle. It is likely about 400 pounds heavier than the equivalent Model 3. Basically, compared to a 2012 Model S...
  8. techmaven

    99 Tunnel in Seattle

    I wonder if Openstreetmap data gets into Tesla’s maps through Mapbox.
  9. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a sensor fusion problem and this blog post from Tesla explains some of it: Upgrading Autopilot: Seeing the World in Radar The initial implementation of AEB basically recognizes the back of a vehicle and tries to auto-brake in certain situations. If it cannot "see" the back of a vehicle...
  10. techmaven

    I love the Model 3, just don't love any color options...

    You can always buy black and then vinyl wrap it.
  11. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a very good question and is central to understanding Tesla's approach versus Waymo's approach. I don't have much time to get into the full on answer that this topic deserves, but I'll take a gander at a shorter version. There are two main splits that are instructional. Back in TMC '16...
  12. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Looking at the 10-Q, cash doesn't look nearly as bad as I had thought. They had almost $200 million more in unused, committed credit line QoQ, which means they could have put that into the cash balance without anyone batting an eye. Accounts receivable is now over $1 billion, or about $400...
  13. techmaven

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    They had another increase in AR... to $1.05 billion and their inventory levels were also high with +$700 million which is likely mostly the in-transit inventory. Their DPO had been dropping and now back up. Without extreme geographical batching and by delivering more cars to US earlier, their...
  14. techmaven

    Audi etron in person, disappointing?

    Instead of trying to get certain routes to work, they are installing based on quickest path to achieve mandated investment goals. That's why the enabled locations are haphazard and mostly in rural areas. Priority is easiest to get done, not trying to get certain routes working for their customers.
  15. techmaven

    Audi etron in person, disappointing?

    I wrote targets. Their plan with the EVSE’s and the money they had to spend were submitted for approval. They are also late.
  16. techmaven

    Audi etron in person, disappointing?

    Ah, no, they are operating under a court mandated settlement. That's why they aren't enabling routes, they are just trying to get to their court mandated targets.
  17. techmaven

    Audi etron in person, disappointing?

    You are really comparing what Tesla did in 2012/2013 to the build out under penalty that VAG is doing in 2018/2019?
  18. techmaven

    John Petersen bogus article (out of main)

    You are using a slew of assumptions here that may not hold true. Most ICE cars get more expensive to operate over time. That may not hold true for a Tesla Model 3. Plus, there are those that have high annual mileage that migrate to Tesla vehicles due to better TCO. I used 15 years, 200,000 miles...
  19. techmaven

    MCU is dead, car is bricked, Tesla is being unforgivably terrible

    There are clearly some service centers that at unacceptable. At least two that I know of have been recently “rebooted” and there are many that do an excellent job. I think one of the issues is that Tesla had been hiring a slew of veterans with military management experience and little customer...
  20. techmaven

    MCU is dead, car is bricked, Tesla is being unforgivably terrible

    Service experience is unfortunately very location specific. In some places, it is excellent. I always get great communications and updates come via text. Can also text back and they follow up. There are some service centers that are terrible though. So getting through to corporate about bad...
  21. techmaven

    John Petersen bogus article (out of main)

    Fueleconomy.gov uses the GREET model, so when you compare cars and use the energy and environment tab and choose GHG + upstream, you get the average emissions using the power generation district of your zip code. Petersen chose a good car to compare against, the Camry Hybrid because it gets over...
  22. techmaven

    John Petersen bogus article (out of main)

    Oh, I didn't add the battery pack embodied emissions for the Camry Hybrid models. Also, someone else pointed out on SA that MPGe already accounts for charging losses. So no need to add that. Petersen ended up double counting it. So charging off only natural gas peakers still means the Model 3...
  23. techmaven

    John Petersen bogus article (out of main)

    BTW, not many people have highlighted his bogus base assumptions on battery cell production emissions. He's been throwing FUD at this since at least 2012. I've corrected him on numerous occasions in 2012 and 2013. Now, 7 years later, he's still drawing an audience to gulping down his...
  24. techmaven

    Porsche Mission E

    Automobile Magazine has some more details on the Taycan: Electric Utility: Audi e-tron vs. Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo vs. Mercedes-Benz EQC Top end battery pack is 105 kWh. 0-62 mph was done in 3.1 seconds. 2nd gear kicks in at above 115 mph. Base version with 400 hp likely starting around...
  25. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Several of us have looked at METI's report used by Irwin for his analysis. His problem is that he didn't properly pull out the power cells that are also exported from Japan. Tesla uses high energy cells from Panasonic that have a very high specific energy density and low cost per kWh. Hybrids...
  26. techmaven

    Stuck on 2018.49.20

    I talked to my local service center about updates recently. They used to have a different philosophy and modus operandi. But now, vehicles are assigned to pools. And SC can only make sure you are up to date with your assigned pool. Getting good wifi access only makes sure that network access...
  27. techmaven

    How many model 3s will take deliver in q1

    This quarter is harder than most to predict. The error bars are huge, even for Tesla themselves. Therefore it is interesting to examine what Tesla is targetting to deliver and then guess what they can pull off. Here’s some of my thoughts and data points... The European tracking data by some...
  28. techmaven

    Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

    Except JD ranked it as average. The number of shift and pack issues might weigh it down.
  29. techmaven

    Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

    With tax credit about to drop, they shouldn’t be having a demand problem. Interestingly enough, helping a friend try to buy a Volt, seems some of the deals being advertised were for phantom cars. They don’t actually exist, or the deals don’t.
  30. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The NIO ES8 is not yet selling in Europe or the US. Once it is homologated to developed countries, we can then evaluate the resulting specs and prices. In China, NIO has access to incentives and avoids certain tariffs that puts Tesla at a competitive disadvantage. However, note that the likely...
  31. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That claim is based on NEDC testing cycle, which is notoriously unreliable and difficult to achieve. I have not seen a comprehensive set of results on the ES8 in a variety of conditions. I have also not seen any reports on cell degradation. There are a number of ways to achieve metrics by...
  32. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That might have been the reaction last year. Tesla itself was on shaky ground without the Q3 and Q4 financial results out. That is now not the case - Tesla is on much firmer ground now in 2019. Therefore, I don't think that is the reaction now. One can argue that all the possible outcomes of...
  33. techmaven

    Infinite Mile Battery Warranty [Now] Being Honored By Tesla [Issue Resolved]

    This is the part that he should get Tesla to respond to... and maybe get his pack replaced under this part. On a different note, just because a particular service advisor doesn't know off hand how to get a 85 kWh pack doesn't mean they don't have 85 kWh packs available for warranty replacement...
  34. techmaven

    Pano roof brackets broken! Tesla won't repair due to salvage vehicle

    It wouldn't have taken much research to know the situation surrounding Tesla and salvage title vehicles. Whomever you bought this from could have applied to have the car re-instated. You can have the car re-instated. There's procedures for authorized body shops to repair and certify the car and...
  35. techmaven

    Infinite Mile Battery Warranty [Now] Being Honored By Tesla [Issue Resolved]

    There are a few puzzling issues with this story so far. First, there's the shut down at 16 miles indicated range. There are a bunch of reasons why that is possible, even if that is rare. Mainly, some sort of voltage sag (high current draw) right at the bottom of the pack's state of charge can...
  36. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Clearly as a Congressperson from NY, she has to make sure that Tesla’s feet are held to the fire with respect to Gigafactory 2. But that has two sides... making sure the company is doing what it should as well as helping the company succeed. Her earlier comments I think also target the ATVM loan...
  37. techmaven

    Hardware 3.0 Increase Non-EAP/FSD Features?

    I don’t have inside information nor decompile the code, but Karpathy did say that they can control the running time of neural nets just by removing layers. It is very straightforward and allows them to maintain the same code base. That might be the strategy going forward at some point... for the...
  38. techmaven

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The chances that Tesla takes the margin hit to have software locked Model 3 SR are extremely low. He just fired a big section of the company to right-size for Model 3 SR production. Lately his communications about the SR has been emphasizing margin and how they are not yet there. @jpterpsfan...
  39. techmaven

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    It isn't an issue of efficiency. It's that Porsche has said the Taycan has at least 500 km of range on NEDC scale. A rough conversion of NEDC to EPA is to take 30% off, so that's 218 miles. I rounded up to 225 then, making the assumption that with smaller frontal cross section, it will do...
  40. techmaven

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    It is bad form to put range numbers on different measuring systems in the same table. Should be... Audi E-tron, 220 (est) Taycan 225 (est) Furthermore, Taycan is likely starting closer to $90k.
  41. techmaven

    Hyundai KonaEV

    Note that the US spec does not include the "Winter Mode" feature that is in the car for Canada and Norway. That feature includes a 2 kW resistive heater for the battery coolant. It also has a resistive heater for the cabin heating instead of a heat pump.
  42. techmaven

    Porsche Mission E

    Porsche shares more details about all-electric Taycan production version Q&A session with Stefan Weckbach, Porsche’s head of electric vehicle programs.. not much new information, but he said ~90 kWh battery pack and 500 km of NEDC range. That translates to around 225 miles of EPA range.
  43. techmaven

    Jaguar I-Pace

    Are you disputing that he had problems charging at that Electrify America CCS EVSE? You can't stand some honesty about the state of the I-Pace or the Electrify America network?
  44. techmaven

    Porsche Mission E

    It will require some build out. In some cases, retrofit, sometimes with conduit. Part of it is requiring conduit during new construction so that the build out is easier. It will take some time.
  45. techmaven

    Porsche Mission E

    My understanding is that in countries with significant incentives for EV, buyers often sign up for multiple refundable reservations and then wait to make a selection later. Norway buyers for instance. So it will be interesting to see what happens with the Taycan, as Porsche along with its VAG...
  46. techmaven

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I haven’t been on these threads lately, but I wanted to hop in and wish everyone a happy holidays, happy new year, and best wishes for your TSLA investment next week. Some of us old guard haven’t been as active here lately. I am guilty of that. In any case, January is going to be amazingly...
  47. techmaven

    Porsche Mission E

    Those are pretty good looking renders. I bet the final version is pretty close to those, but obviously, they aren't going to look as dramatic with real world lighting. Given what we know so far, I am guessing the base price is probably just under $80,000. The base version likely has around 400...
  48. techmaven

    Tesla crashed my Tesla Model X today which was delivery day!

    I would not take this car. If it were just the bumpers, that's no biggie at all. But now that's quarter panel damage. As for compensation, I'd go for a loaner and some service credit. It's always great to put miles on a car that isn't yours.
  49. techmaven

    Mercedes Debuts EQC Electric Crossover

    While some i3’s have CCS DCFC, I don’t believe the Panamera e-hybrid can DCFC.
  50. techmaven

    Mercedes Debuts EQC Electric Crossover

    Supercharger or destination charger? I know of the adapter for the HPWC to J1772. The electricity cost of those is provided by the establishment, not Tesla.

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