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  1. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I shouldn't be, yet every time the level of stupid continues to amaze me. The only official news that came out of the P&D report that we didn't already know (anyone paying attention was within about 10k of the P&D numbers already) was that Tesla is now at record production levels.
  2. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol are we really down another 4.2% on totally expected news that is not news and not at all related to Tesla AND already in the past? Wall Street has got to be the largest assembled group of collective morons on the planet. Instead of investing based on the next decade, next year, or next...
  3. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    WTF? Tax the environmental SOLUTION in order to generate revenue to fix the environmental PROBLEM? California is completely backward. So instead of taxing oil refining or something like that, they tax the new clean energy side. Bunch of brilliant folks they have running the show over there.
  4. Todd Burch

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Wide release of FSD and single stack are two unrelated things.
  5. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Our friend Bill Wright had something to say on Twitter: “I can’t even wait for it and I f’n know everything about it…” When pressed for more info, he responds: “Game changer”. Really hope he’s talking about 4680s here…
  6. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Most car companies produce their vehicles internationally though, so they'll probably already at the minimum meet the emission standards of other countries. If anything, this might put Tesla further ahead if some companies feel less compelled to drive forward on emission standards. Ultimately...
  7. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why? Getting added into that index will force funds to purchase TSLA--so wouldn't you expect people would want to get in ahead of that?
  8. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, if the issue is undersized contactors, a software fix can only do so much. This is going to handicap the Mach-E's performance further. Not a good look unless they do a full hardware recall and replace with better contactors (which is also not a good look). And these cars aren't even that...
  9. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hope so. They’re shutting down for part of July as I recall to do some upgrades…what’s going to open the capacity up to 90-95k/month by end of year?
  10. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So…. About 305,000 cars produced in Q1. Estimating 260,000 cars for Q2. Given that it appears we are now already exceeding the fancy 1.5M cars/yr production rate (375k/qtr), where do we stand for the year relative to everyone’s expectations on production rate? The steep portion of the S curve...
  11. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Current production rates: Shanghai: 70k/mo Fremont: 50k/mo Berlin: 4k/mo Austin: 2k(?)/mo No doubt we’re exiting Q2 with >1.5M/yr run rate. And I agree that will be emphasized in the P&D report. Shanghai getting shut down for a month is not what Wall St will care about anymore—that’s in the...
  12. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If the 3 was a performance, that would be quite ironic given that time should be slowing down for her as she approaches the speed of light.
  13. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I did some back of the napkin numbers and think 250k can be beaten, but not by much. But my assumption was with Austin and Berlin producing 5k cars in June. If Tesla can beat that a bit, they may be able to get closer to 260k cars. That puts us about 90k cars behind for the year. For 1.5M...
  14. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then again, thinking about it--maybe not...since the cameras will still be used for turn signal cameras, security cameras, etc--so will still need those things to look "palatable" for humans. Edit: As pointed out, they'll still wants some of that stuff due to the use of the cameras for more...
  15. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Those camera modules are going to be pretty bare bones, with some filters and image processors removed--since the FSD NNs are now using raw photons instead of processed images as inputs into the neural nets. That will drop the cost of their camera components even further.
  16. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, I think that it's just that previous radar-related information from 2018 is now public so it's surfacing.
  17. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Speaking of big pins sliding into place... At the start of this contract, I wonder if Elon called IDRA and asked "Hey IDRA, wanna Cyber?"
  18. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My view: Elon's layoff announcement last week instilled (completely irrational) views that Tesla demand is hurting and the company is collapsing. Lithium and battery purchase news has allayed those fears. You don't sign big raw material and battery agreements if you don't have demand. Stock...
  19. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.13

    I assume it just means I assume it just means they’ll iterate and make it better over time. Success rates will start low and improve gradually.
  20. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I expect Tesla, rather than attempting to ship to Europe, would just send more cars to the China market this quarter to try to make up for lost time. You save time so can ship more cars locally, but you also probably save some on the shipping expenses. (Not sure of details of shipping contract).
  21. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.13

    That was my big takeway. From the Tweet, Elon has clearly watched Chuck’s videos. Which tells me he’s seen the problem—the exact problem—that Chuck is having. And that gives me confidence that he and other smart people are working on it.
  22. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.13

    So? Even if “just” 50.1% of the time, that would be a remarkable achievement. No other autonomous driving company can even attempt such a challenging maneuver. People in these FSD beta threads have far too little appreciation for how challenging this problem is.
  23. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.13

  24. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon’s reply: “10.13 will solve your left turn most of the time”
  25. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So we still haven't seen the source of the alleged "super-worried about the economy" comment?!? I suspect that did the most damage, and that seems to be the one thing we haven't seen substantiated in the correspondence.
  26. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    LOL this is so wrong. here's an example of CFRA now pushing out what is now confirmed as incorrect information, and basing a price target on it?!?!?! WTF. This is a consequence of the 24-hour news cycle that we live in. People have to react immediately without getting all the facts. 1. 10% of...
  27. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While I certainly agree with this sentiment, in this case I think the media/journalists are more to blame in this particular case. (And maybe Wall Street a bit for having such an intense knee-jerk reaction. It's like Wall Street still thinks Tesla's success thus far has been luck, and their...
  28. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm not concerned at all. Workforce scaling != revenue scaling. We JUST saw the order book grow by 8-10 weeks for some models, we know there isn't a demand problem. This is Elon trimming fat. Investors should like that.
  29. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol there is absolutely no way Tesla is in any “dire straits” financially. Q2 won’t be the blockbuster due to China shutdown out of Tesla’s control, but they are still banking it and have almost no debt.
  30. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Most turn out to be true. If true it’s not that concerning really…just want him to get ahead of any negative “the sky is falling” spin that TSLAQ will obviously run with.
  31. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If this news is true, periodically trimming the fat/barnacles is a good thing, especially when you have so many people that want to work for your company. Every company inevitably accumulates slugs that lower productivity and add little value. Shaving those off keeps a company lean, nimble, and...
  32. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is actually how I picture this having gone in my head, having watched Elon's behavior for the last 13 years. He was clearly ticked off by something...it came through in the tone of the emails, and in the Twitter response ("They can pretend to work somewhere else"). He needed information...
  33. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We seem to be held to $765 for some reason...
  34. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree Accountant, it seems a bit contradictory. Current economic environment just doesn't seem recessionary. I think this is all a bit unique because we're emerging from an unusual pandemic situation and went into a fuel crisis with the war in Ukraine, and the indicators are false flag...
  35. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    LCID, NIO, XPEV, F, RIVN all green...TSLA heading that way.
  36. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s an option. But it doesn’t advance the mission or improve revenue.
  37. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)

    Tesla didn’t send a driver to Chuck’s turn. No way. I agree 10.12.1 did very poorly for Chuck, however I think it was mostly due to bugs: 1. The “take over immediately” issue Chuck hit every time around the block is supposedly already fixed in 10.12.2. 2. The “always turn right” bug is...
  38. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Chuck Cook’s initial 10.12.1 ride was not good at all. Almost seems like his car needed a reboot. 10.12.2 is going wider now though, and it supposedly fixes the “take over immediately” issue Chuck was having (hopefully the turn right only bug too, which has returned from previous versions)...
  39. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.12

    Another 10.12.2 drive:
  40. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 10.12

    Brief 10.12.2 drive:
  41. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some people recently asked what Tesla is going to do with all its cash. Some proposed a stock buyback. I think right now they are mostly accumulating a safety buffer of extra cash for insurance in case of an economic downturn. But once that buffer increases a bit more, I think they’ll reinvest...
  42. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If Musk buys back a considerable number of TSLA shares, it could trigger the start of the recovery we and the market needs.
  43. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anyone who thinks today's fall is TSLA-specific, it's not: My last buy, in the $700s, was also a very good price to buy at.
  44. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The conclusion I've drawn from the last few months of market behavior is that it really doesn't matter what company you invest in. A company is a company. The financial quality of an individual company is irrelevant. Record results? Record profits? Industry-leading margins? Doesn't matter. If...
  45. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah...umm...isn't inflation and recession already priced in at this point?
  46. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FUD can hurt Tesla and TSLA in the short term. But every day Tesla’s enemies spend focusing on how to smear Elon instead of bettering their product…every investigative documentary attempting to slow down FSD’s progress instead of working on their own AI, is another day where Tesla has moved...
  47. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Party's over, shorts. Crawl back into your dirty little holes until the next economic downturn.
  48. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK that's it. I'm calling bottom. Up we go. You heard it here first. Also, I'm never wrong about the market.

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