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  1. Ogre

    Speculating on Roll Out and Delivery Assuming 2023 Release

    People who make the spreadsheet have no more information than us. If you are under 2000 you should be a month or less after production start. Whenever that is.
  2. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Having a flexible supply chain is one of the competitive advantages Tesla enjoys. Ford & GM have one battery supplier for each product. Being able to mix and match cells for this purpose is potentially going to make a huge difference here for Tesla customers.
  3. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Maybe you should re-read his tweet. It’s low-level trolling.
  4. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    o_O I can't wait for the fumigator! I'm going to give them a fat kiss on the lips. Ok, I'll admit I'm happy we're back at $900. Mostly because I loaded up on LEAPs when we were at $650/ share. But agree, at a minimum we need to hit $420/ share (coincidentally setting a new ATH) before we...
  5. Ogre

    Getting complaints about using public level 2 charger

    **Asking** is fine. In fact I've seen people leave their number on the dash of their car just for this contingency. Unless I am in a similar situation, I'll give up my spot any time. Demanding, getting angry, etc is not. You can't get entitled about what is a public service. Particularly not...
  6. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please don't. It's not a masterpiece, it's just a loosely held assemblage of lies (as you yourself point out). Apparently SA has gotten worse.
  7. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m greedy and I just want some solid signals. The lack of a 4680 narrative at the shareholders meeting has left me with a lingering concern. Not a huge red flag, just a low level… hmmm
  8. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Was there 4 paragraphs about the dangers of driving vehicles loaded with dangerous flammable liquids? That’s usually what they do with vehicle accidents right, talk in length about how the vehicle they were driving is particularly dangerous due to its power sources volatility.
  9. Ogre

    Tesla making buyers sign promise not to resell?

    First. GOOD. Stops people from buying to flip them. I hadn’t heard they were requiring people sign something, but Tesla has long had a policy against buying cars for resale and has on at least 1 occasion banned someone from buying Teslas. I suspect banning buyers is about the limit of what...
  10. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    (Nice post BTW, just a question/ niggle) Are we even sure the Semi is using the 4680 cells? I'd assumed they would, but recently there has been speculation here that they might use 2170s for the initial run. Seems like there is a surplus of 2170 cells right now. Either way it suggests they...
  11. Ogre

    Service and communication (out of main)

    There ain’t no such thing as a “Free Loaner” (TANSTAAFL) if it’s during warrantee, it’s covered by the warrantee. If it’s outside of warrantee, it just means you are paying for the loaner as part of the service charge whether it’s itemized as such or not.
  12. Ogre

    Getting complaints about using public level 2 charger

    I’m pretty sure Tesla ditching free Supercharging was largely due to the tragedy of the commons. Free Supercharging meant some users piled on massive amounts of use which had a massively disproportionate effect on the Supercharger network. I do admit to a bit of this myself. Our local...
  13. Ogre

    Getting complaints about using public level 2 charger

    In that case you are 100% clear in my book. Anyone who “Needs” power can drop the cash. You are competing with people who are in the same ballpark as you. Went to a brewpub by the coast and they had an L2 charger that charges $0.20/ kWh (power is typically $0.07/ kWh from the power company). It...
  14. Ogre

    Getting complaints about using public level 2 charger

    I agree... mostly. If I'm local, it's not worth even plugging in or seeking out a charger. But if there is a pair of chargers which are normally empty, there is zero wrong with hitting it up to save that buck. I'd argue that leaving them empty all the time is worse because it gives the...
  15. Ogre

    Getting complaints about using public level 2 charger

    Opportunity charging is fine so long as you leave that last charger open. Few people are likely to “need“ an L2 charger.
  16. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This isn’t really too surprising. Tesla will be using these LFP packs even after the 4680 production is going well. I thought Tesla had made it clear they are going to source as many batteries as possible from whatever source they can get. Those 55 kWh LFP cells have to be saving them a lot of...
  17. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We can clearly run up to at least $1200/ share without large institutional investors. We’ve spent a significant part of the past 6 months over $1000/ share. If it weren’t for a lot of external factors, we’d probably still be there.
  18. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’ll be at least 18 months before we see $1000. Split is in 2 weeks. Once it splits, there is no longer a $1000 threshold. Nobody worries about “What’ll it take to break through $333.33”. After the split, we need to triple to hit $1000 and worry about such a benchmark. In the mean time we...
  19. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is… structural. Not just filler foam, but seriously bonded. Makes me very excited about the Cybertruck.
  20. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Crazy thing about fuel savings is how much it varies based on location. Here in Oregon, metered power costs $0.08/ kWh. 500 miles south in Sacramento, it's 2-3 times as much (4x during peak hours!). Even in California the savings is likely big, but in states where power is cheap the savings are...
  21. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, I find that pretty odd. Particularly in light of the fact that the deposit is so big and with Elon talking about deliveries starting now.
  22. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Orders isn’t going to be the question for some time to come. There are certain to be more orders than Tesla can fill for at least a few months (maybe years??). By the time they fill those orders, there will be more piling up. I wouldn’t really consider putting $20k down without having a better...
  23. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure O’Dowd wants legal scrutiny of his methodology.
  24. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I strongly suspect you have to cook up a weird set of specific conditions to make the car run over this dummy. The cones aren’t there by happenstance.
  25. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It just means he needs cash. Tesla stock is 99% of Musks net worth, if he needs to “Withdraw” money to do things, he has to sell it. Would you prefer he sold $100b to keep in reserve for other things? Do you really think Musk owning 16% of Tesla instead of 17% (or whatever the actual numbers...
  26. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can’t take any post seriously that quotes Cramer as a source. It’s possible it’s true, he’s not wrong every time.
  27. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    I’m not sold on this one way or the other myself. Tesla typically has an LR model and a Performance or Plaid model. I can see a lot of ways this might land. A lot of people don’t care a ton about Supercar performance in the truck and just want the 500 miles range. Maybe there is Dual, Dual LR...
  28. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you multiply the “Prod Per Month” Column by the “Wait Time” Column, you end up with the “Backlog”. The total is a simple sum of those rows… While I agree with you, I’m pretty sure his methodology is just taking the simplest approach Excel (Or Numbers) has to offer.
  29. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m pretty sure he just uses his projections and counts how many cars would be produced between now and the current estimated delivery date for each model. Not super accurate, but it’s a number. I can already see how the TSLAQ would portray this number. “Demand for Tesla has flatlined as their...
  30. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought that was weird too. “Sign this binding agreement…”, but the Rivian agreement doesn’t actually have final terms on it so it’s not actually binding. Or are people legit on the hook to buy a Rivian for whatever price Rivian eventually offers it at. Here sir is your $1m Rivian, you...
  31. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Went sailing yesterday and it was very similar to the past 6 months of TSLA investing. Inconsistent tail winds, deep troughs, and I ended up soaking wet.
  32. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sort of. I suspect they are creating a leveraged position the same way many of us do, by buying calls. It’s not the same but you can fairly easily achieve a 2:1 leveraged position just by buying LEAPs. You can see the attached snap from my portfolio. I get a little under 2:1 leverage on my...
  33. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Maybe it will take 2+ months to reach new production target levels and those levels are just quite a bit higher than expected. If 12,000/ month is just the start of the ramp... I wouldn't bet on 15k per month, but food for thought.
  34. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If Starship delivers the promised performance, Musk will be able to colonize Mars based on that investment by itself. If it fails to deliver on its promise, no amount of Tesla money will help. Starship is huge. Literally and figuratively.
  35. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon doesn't give a *sugar* about money at this point. He has more money than he can reasonably or rationally spend in 100 lifetimes. He has enough in Tesla and SpaceX where he is assured he will be able to earn money fast enough to buy 1 Twitter or so every year. It's not about which...
  36. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    Farzad Mesbahi has about the best take on pricing as anyone I've seen. Nicely slots the Cybertruck in the middle of the current competitive field which makes a ton of sense. He suggests they will cede the low end of the truck market to Ford with a nice mix of prices which are rationally adjusted...
  37. Ogre

    FSD fails to detect children in the road

    It is not a "Story". It is an advertisement. Or apparently a story about an advertisement. Super lame.
  38. Ogre

    FSD fails to detect children in the road

    Why are people posting advertisements on this forum and acting as if they are impartial sources? What's next, a thread titled "Coke Really is IT!". With a Coke advert?
  39. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So you are saying a company with a competing software platform are trying to make Tesla look bad? ** Shocking **
  40. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I figured this was in response to Musk finally acknowledging the Cybertruck price increase. Maybe just fortuitous timing. Keep in mind, many F-150 Lightning buyers benefitted from the previous incentive. It's possible Ford will squeak through cleanly with no interruption in collecting...
  41. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Great for people who own a Nissan Leaf and have never sold it. Likewise first owners of the Chevy Bolt. If you timed it right, you got the first rebate when you bought your Bolt, took the $6,000 "don't sue me" payout from GM, and will be able to sell it used and indirectly benefit from the $4k...
  42. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    Aside from fear. There is literally zero reason it should. Model X is a luxury car. Cybertruck is a pickup. You might as well ask whether the Ford F-150 Lightning will be more expensive than a Mercedes S Class. The two vehicles aren't in the same category. There is zero basis for comparison.
  43. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Keep in mind if too many people try to push back their EV purchases in the 4th quarter, Tesla can likely accelerate shipments to corporate fleets, like Hertz and Autonomy into 2022. There are a lot of little levers they can pull to keep sales moving.
  44. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you. I have plenty of Tesla, but would buy this for exposure to SpaceX... even if it's just 7%.
  45. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    If we're talking about a raise due to materials cost increases, it would look like this. When you start blathering on about raising prices to Model X pricing, it has nothing to do with materials costs.
  46. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    You are suggesting a $1000 raw material increase is going to cause a $20,000 end price increase. It's nonsense even if the cost of steel doubled its nonsense. But the cost of steel didn't double. Nor did the cost of any inputs. In order for stainless steel to account for a $20k price increase in...
  47. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They should get some credit for limiting the scope of their fail though right?
  48. Ogre

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    Stainless steel prices are up about 15%. Not "Exponentially". Stainless steel costs less than $5000/ ton and there will be far less than a ton of steel in the truck. The increase in steel costs will add around $500 to the cost to manufacture the truck. This isn't tough to find these numbers, do...
  49. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Jury is still out, there is another 4.5 months left in 2022 for some even more boneheaded problem to crop up. Plus, we still haven't seem how much the Mustang Mach-E failure will set them back. Toyota's issue only affects a couple thousand cars. My feeling is the longer Ford's temporary fix is...
  50. Ogre

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Texas "bidding" was first come first serve. I suspect there was some insider information used to scoop up these contracts before the bidding process really opened to the big players. It's likely the chargers installed as a result will be online for a short them then never get maintained adding...

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