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  1. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    @The Accountant, thank you very much for updating the table. I love auto gross margin excluding reg credits.
  2. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wish there was a table like this for estimates for Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits. I expect it to increase from 30.0% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite Giga Shanghai shutdowns and two new factories. It seems everybody else disagrees but I have to go with what my calculation shows.
  3. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was off by only +1.5% for Model 3/Y production and +0.3% for Model 3/Y deliveries. You can see the details for Q2 2022 here. I'm not sure "so wrong" is a fair description for Model 3/Y. Here is what happened in Q4 2021. I upped my estimate in the final week by 10K, not 20K. This was the...
  4. Troy

    MaxRange

    Here is the link to the spreadsheet: Tesla Battery Survery I haven't changed the link. It seems Google now generates a different link for sharing.
  5. Troy

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    I don't like NewAutomotive.org as a data source for the UK because they were proven to be less accurate than SMMT Other Imports method when SMMT released both the Model 3 and Model Y numbers for the UK in March. Here are actual registrations in March: Actual registrations in March 2022 were...
  6. Troy

    SR/SR+ (Model 3 RWD) Waiting Room

    Model 3 LR AWD portion of Model 3 registrations in the US were as follows: Q1 2021: 40.0% Q2 2021: 45.1% Q3 2021: 42.2% Q4 2021: 45.2% Q1 2022: 75.8% Q2 2022: 70.5%
  7. Troy

    SR/SR+ (Model 3 RWD) Waiting Room

    Yes, it does because they would also need to register with the DMV.
  8. Troy

    SR/SR+ (Model 3 RWD) Waiting Room

    Hi everybody. I have bad news for SR buyers. Unfortunately, DMV data shows a big drop in SR registrations for the second quarter in a row. Model 3 SR share of Model 3 registrations in the US: Q1 2021: 50.9% Q2 2021: 45.4% Q3 2021: 45.0% Q4 2021: 42.4% Q1 2022: 11.8% Q2 2022: 5.5% The sample...
  9. Troy

    Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

    I was wrong. It is now obvious that Model 3s will arrive in Q3 too. Let me update what I said: Q1 2022: There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. Q2 2022: I estimate 250 Model 3 registrations in Q2. These are leftovers from Q1, not new arrivals...
  10. Troy

    2022 Shipping Movements

    If Morning Peace arrives at Southampton on 28 June, what does this mean for buyers in London or elsewhere in the UK? Are some buyers going to the port to pick up their car? Is there enough time left to ship the cars to London? Let's say it arrives with 2,000 Model 3/Y. I'm trying to estimate how...
  11. Troy

    Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

    There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. I estimate zero in Q2 and Q3 and then maybe 7,000 in Q4. For Model Y, I estimate 5,000 in Q3 and 7,000 in Q4.
  12. Troy

    Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

    Fremont doesn't build any right-hand-drive Model 3 or Y. Therefore, they can't export Model 3/Y to Australia. The reason you see exports from Fremont to APAC in my tables is that Fremont still exports Model 3/Y to South Korea and Taiwan. This is actually well known because the shipping...
  13. Troy

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    They have something called Type Approval in Europe which happens in the Netherlands. Here is an example for Model 3 in the past: UPDATE: Tesla Autopilot Approved Europe It could be related to that. However, S/X registrations were never zero. If we look at Q3 and Q4 2021 and then to Q1 2022...
  14. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Can somebody clarify if the Model Y produced today at Fremont has these two features? Thanks. 12V lithium-ion battery instead of the led acid battery AMD processor for the media control unit. This affects the touch screen responsiveness. Also, which of these have or don't have double-pane...
  15. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No. Deliveries were 936,222 units in 2021. In the conference call, Tesla confirmed at least 50% growth in 2022. That means at least 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022. Zach is saying this is achievable with just Fremont and Shanghai which is correct. There is nothing in Zach's statement about 2023...
  16. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Yes, you have two options: Option 1: Open the same form again and click 'Edit your response' and change all the data to match your second order and click submit. Be aware that for some reason, Google forms doesn't let users remove any dates they previously entered. So, change it to a best-guess...
  17. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    It should be OK now. There was a setting that would remove entries that were not updated for 91 days because these were considered abandoned. I have now changed it to 150 days. There is a note about this on the input form: "Entries last updated more than 150 days ago are not shown on the...
  18. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @Cyberspeed, you can apply custom filters yourself. There is a link to a video in the opening message or click here.
  19. Troy

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    @mrdoubleb, it looks good as a data source. I compared past numbers and they are a little low but not by much and we replace these later with gov.uk data anyway. So, I added it to the source page as an alternative media source until we have the official numbers. By the way, the spreadsheet...
  20. Troy

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    Here is what happened in detail in case some people find this interesting: On 23 Dec, I updated my delivery estimate on Patreon to 289K. I make these estimates public after 7 days so I posted it on Twitter on 30 Dec. At the time, on 23 Dec, I was estimating 59,529 production in Shanghai in Dec...
  21. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Yes, VIN 345,000's are pretty new and most likely produced between 10-24 Dec 2021. My best guess is 16 Dec.
  22. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Actually, it makes more sense to take the middle of the EDD range. I have now changed the form.
  23. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    10 January. It would be the closest date.
  24. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Hi everybody. I added a new column for EDD. Let me know if you see any issues with the survey or the input form. This feature was suggested today by @Crisita99. Thanks for the feedback. By the way, I'm trying to figure out if Tesla will have any undelivered inventory in the US at the end of...
  25. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Hi everybody. Are there any buyers here from the US who want to take delivery in December but can't because there are no cars? I'm trying to understand Q4 US deliveries.
  26. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here are my production estimates for Q3 2021. 50K Fremont Model 3 and 48.5K Model Y are based on the latest VIN data. 11.1K Model S is based on DMV data. China Model 3/Y are based on the daily production rates and how they change over time. I included 2020 to provide context so people can see...
  27. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Analyst consensus for Q3 2021 is currently 221K. It consists of estimates by 11 analysts that range between 204K and 246K. It's a wide range. So, it's not like Q3 deliveries are crystal clear and it's easy to estimate it with a small error.
  28. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have not said the things you quoted me saying. I don't think Q3 deliveries will be affected by the EV rebate. If somebody cancels their delivery, there will be another buyer in line who will take delivery instead. So, it's not an issue at all in Q3. As for Q4, if Tesla doesn't do anything then...
  29. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, I agree. It's important to try to estimate the quarter accurately in advance. That's why I measure the accuracy of my first estimate as well as the last one. I'm very transparent about this. All of these details including links to each estimate on Twitter can be found here. The first table...
  30. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, I don't own any TSLA stock, I don't normally trade TSLA and have not traded it for a long time. As for options, I don't know how options work and never tried it for any stock. I'm pro Tesla and I support their mission. I'm trying to make my estimates as accurate as possible.
  31. Troy

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In 4 out of the last 5 quarters, my final Tesla delivery estimate was off by 2.6% or less. In Q3, I will post my final estimate on Twitter here on the last day of the quarter as usual. I'm again aiming for less than 3% error. Here is what I think of error rates: 0-2.0% Excellent 2.1-3.0% Very...
  32. Troy

    Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

    @DarthStar, Here is how VIN to Delivery time looks for Model Y Performance version in California. By the way, you can see this by using filters as explained in the video HERE after 3:23.
  33. Troy

    Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

    Hi, @Slaughter. If you see your old data when you open the form, you could overwrite it with new data and don't worry about the old data. It's not relevant anymore. Unfortunately, dates can't be cleared once you enter a date. So, for example, if you have no delivery date yet and you want to...
  34. Troy

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    Hi everybody & @mrdoubleb, @hobbes, @Todesbuckler, I added Model Y. Thanks Todesbuckler for the reminder. I had forgotten about it.
  35. Troy

    Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

    @jguitar, is the numeric part of your VIN below 2000? I'm curious because others are reporting VINs close to one million like 998,685. Two other buyers also reported VINs in the 1 or 2K range. I guess the numbering started over after a million.
  36. Troy

    Wiki Model S Delivery Update

    That's not correct. I'm looking at DMV data and it shows that Model S/X deliveries will be around 1,867 units in the US in Q1. Also, I have data for Canada plus each country in Europe and Asia/Pacific. I'm calculating 2,573 Model S/X deliveries worldwide in Q1. All of those are the old Model...
  37. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @mcmcn, thanks for the feedback. It's fixed now.
  38. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @RollTelsaRoll, it turns out unchecking the checkbox and re-submitting the form doesn't replace the text with a blank cell. Instead, it just leaves the old text there as it is. That's an issue with Google forms I wasn't aware of. After some tests, I replaced the checkbox question with a...
  39. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @RollTelsaRoll, in the form, uncheck the checkbox that says "I have canceled my Model Y order. Remove me from the spreadsheet" and click submit.
  40. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Hi @RollTelsaRoll. I have marked your other entry from 5 days ago cancelled too. Now they are both cancelled. You can now uncancel the one you can edit.
  41. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @Neo_TheOne, both the form and the spreadsheet have only one delivery date, the actual one. There is no estimated delivery date either on the form or on the spreadsheet. It says just "Delivery date".
  42. Troy

    Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

    Hi @Mark57. If you want to add a second entry to the Model 3 Order Tracker spreadsheet, you would need to open the form while you are logged in to a different Google account. This is because the form is set to accept one entry per user. Alternatively, if you don't mind losing the first entry...
  43. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    No problem. See row 34 on the 'Delivery Rate' tab.
  44. Troy

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Here is my estimate for revenue:
  45. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Hi, @DanDi58 and @imola.zhp Users can keep the last one or two digits of their VIN private if they want to. The spreadsheet will then replace unknown digits with 5. For example, 667xx becomes 66755.
  46. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Thanks, added. By the way, you can use @Troy in the forum to make sure I see your message. Thanks for the feedback.
  47. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    Hi everybody. Let's make sure the survey questions in the Google Form match what Tesla's website currently shows. Does it still say "Your delivery profile is complete" or do you understand that from the checkbox? I want to make sure the wording for this question is correct: Thanks, @Kristler for...
  48. Troy

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Hi everybody. Does anyone know why Model 3 deliveries in Norway and the Netherlands were very high in Q4 2020? I'm trying to guess whether Q1 2021 will be similar to Q4 2020 or Q3 2020.
  49. Troy

    Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

    @DrGr3y, thanks for the suggestion. Sorry for the late response. The column you wanted is now added.

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