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  1. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Though it does amuse me to think of all these short and distort types on twitter being giddy and excited going to bed only to wake up to a nice surprise tomorrow morning (hopefully I don't jinx it!)
  2. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wouldn't lose sleep over this "factory shutdown". I believe we will see a correction from the City of Fremont shortly advising that Tesla is indeed an essential business and can continue operating. Same with Giga in Reno. Sheriff clearly overstepped his pay grade, probably got pressured into...
  3. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry, I shouldn't really be highlighting people without their permission in a public forum, but you could probably guess. No reason for you to trust me, if I were you I'd just track how right or wrong I am about things and adjust your trust accordingly! I did say Shanghai was up and fully...
  4. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant...
  5. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Reeks of highly aggressive attempt at manipulation. Someone(s) was shorting a lot of stocks in the low liquidity aftermarket likely on the hopes that they could influence futures to open down big. Futures opened up and are roughly flat now but the stocks haven’t recovered. Imagine they will...
  6. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FYI I've confirmed that Tesla's supply chain is 100% operational with no snags (no I'm not going to tell you how, trust me or don't!). Last week was a record week for production at Shanghai. Doesn't mean stock can't go down during this mass hysteria but operationally, Tesla has not seen any...
  7. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Besides that, it’s bad form and opens you up to litigation to do an offering then issue what some may view as material information in the 10k (capex forecasts, sec subpoena).
  8. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The price will be set at the end of the day (evening time EST) depending on where the stock closes. So it is largely dependent on trading today. Before you ask, yes that leaves it open to hedge funds shorting the stock in order to buy it back participating in the offering, which is a common...
  9. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Empirically, stocks tend to outperform the most in the T-3 and T-6 months prior to the announcement of S&P inclusion (sorry I don't have this study offhand but it was from Jeffries I believe). I'm sure there's some front running of that going on. But there's no possible way short covering can...
  10. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just an FYI - this isn't the old UBS analyst (Colin Langan, who was the worst) who was let go last fall. This is their (primarily European) auto analyst Patrick Hummel. He's historically been actually pretty positive on TSLA. He's actually pretty reasonable and I could see him upgrading the...
  11. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Happy holidays everyone! Sorry for the absence, been a crazy year but should be back for good now. As it relates to Tesla, think this is just the beginning. Lot of good things on the come next year. PS I was right about this being a generational opportunity at 260! Just turned into a...
  12. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since I’ve heard this mentioned many times - maxwell holders are not holding out for a better deal. That’s in no way true and would be suicidal as maxwell was a 3 dollar stock before Tesla and just printed an almost comedically bad quarter. Holders don’t tender until the proxy becomes effective...
  13. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Better late than never. Glad Tesla finally decided to do this. Obviously dumb to do it here instead of last year but the reality is the incremental dilution here is negligible raising here versus $300+ given the longer term upside potential. Think the barrage of negative media should die down...
  14. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm pretty confident they're telling the truth. There's several alternative data providers (no I'm not going to tell you which!) that monitor Tesla production very accurately. I've seen a big step up since mid-March.
  15. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quarter was as bad as expected. Cash balance is actually a touch better in a nasty quarter with a lot of vehicles in transit and the quarter ending on a Sunday again. Today is likely the point of max bearishness, but I'm pretty optimistic on the go forward. The supply bottlenecks have been...
  16. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It varies by firm. It’s certainly not a positive and is an overhang on the stock. But it isn’t an outright bar to owning or buying the stock at our firm and most others. I would say that it adds a lot of political risk to pounding the table and saying we need to buy more stock. If you do that...
  17. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They should still raise capital and put this whole issue to bed. At this point virtually all of their top shareholders have been urging them to. Raising 2 billion would be easy for them to do and would lower their cost of capital massively by doing so (would probably get upgraded by Moody’s on...
  18. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oops hit reply too soon. You’ll have to trust me, there are resource benefits to being a larger firm. I would guess $1 billion on an annual basis. Half of that this year. Extremely bullish on the stock. Think this is a generational opportunity and probably the last major drawdown in this...
  19. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You’ll have to trust me on that one.
  20. I

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    More of a benefit to Tesla to receive the cash now as opposed to later. Tesla will almost certainly generate significant amounts of cash from every quarter beyond q1 of this year. I’m sure this was part of the negotiations. But for FCA there’s some benefit to smoothing the payments (ie paying...

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