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  1. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Three years ago a fiery, fatal Tesla accident could cause the SP to dip significantly. With the company much bigger and with many more cars on the road I expect the effect of this recent tragedy to be less.
  2. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla does not waste its time fighting FUD, they just execute. As for Germany, I for once drove over to see a friend IRL today (in Munich) - bringing my bicycle on the Model 3's towbar rack, so we could go for a ride together outside in the decent weather. As I park in the street he comes out to...
  3. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There seems to be a lot of speculation at this point. If accurate, this statement lends credence to AP not being an issue,
  4. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For perspective the World has only about two dozen countries with a - granted - annual GDP greater than that. If Elon Musk's (unrealized) gains would make him a trillionaire Bernie Sanders would go absolutely crazy - and I guess a fair number of teslanaires would be actual billionaires...
  5. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After having tried about different about 20 tiny variations of a touch or swipe that would each fail by either bringing up the rear view camera or rotate the visualization of the car I cannot rule out that it does not work on my screen. But I can say with absolute certainty that the user...
  6. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On that note, the only way I can get my Model 3 to show the tire pressure is now with voice command. So if the touch screen still has a place to touch to show this, then it is not easy to find.
  7. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am confused about this: "Tesla emailed her an invoice". Why would Tesla email their account number to a buyer? As part of the ordering process a buyer must create an account on Tesla's server, where eventually also the invoice with payment details is placed by Tesla for download + payment by...
  8. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks. 10m38s and 11m28s show casts from the operational gigapress. Since the last video (I saw) from there, the casts are now placed in metal structures, suitable for being moved by a fork lift. Some structures hold 3 (stacked) others 5 (vertically side-by-side). There seems to be a few...
  9. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am unsure if anyone should try this, but here is one way this could be interesting for a very aggressive (or very foolish) TSLA bull, who is already leveraged to the point that their broker will not let them buy more shares on margin: Create a combo-options trade with expiry Friday before ER...
  10. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's the great thing about the combination of Tesla's collection of driving data, dojo and the 'learning campaigns' that they have mentioned. Tesla can simply create a prioritized list of driving skills/techniques that FSD should have and start working through the list. Eventually, it will get...
  11. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When Tesla buys back one of their cars the software locked battery comes in handy - because depending on demand, they can then decide whether to unlock the feature prior to selling the car again. So making a severe range restriction via a software lock can work for them in this manner.
  12. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While I have seen no sources in support of it TSLA bulls on Twitter are content to believe that the sighted, refreshed Model S clearly produced this quarter are all missing some easily added component. This would explain why Q1 formally saw no Model S production in spite of Model S being factory...
  13. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In regions (and especially at sites) with a mix of v2 and v3 (250 kW) superchargers, I would not mind paying a premium for using (i.e. for reduced risk of waiting at) the v3 stalls versus the slower ones.
  14. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That seems very likely - the part of the building you describe have pillars suitable for a bridge crane over an area identical to the existing one, see below photo. With the speed of construction I agree that it seems quite possible that Austin will get and install 6 gigapresses this year. For...
  15. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So to finalize a Cybertruck order, one needs to choose between two buttons: 1: 'I want my Cybertruck' 2: 'I want my Mama' :-)
  16. lklundin

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    You seem to have overlooked the context which is "Why not just sell and rebuy?" And with Tesla projected to post a record, taxable profit, they should be reluctant to realize additional profits from their BTC position.
  17. lklundin

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    With (a projected) record GAAP income, Tesla would not want to realize more taxable gains - so this would make sense only if at the time of the sale + re-buy the BTC to dollar price had dropped to below the initial purchase price - and if a Wash-Sale Rule would not prevent this from being a tax...
  18. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the topic of gigafactory foundations: "If you like that, you're gonna love this" - from South of Phase 1 of GigaShanghai: Namely a basically, enormous and very deep foundation which has been under construction for a very long time now. Is this for an even bigger Giga press or for something...
  19. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Apologies for quoting my own post but I took a look at the gigapress foundations Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. I know the cell production is a very big deal and likely the bottleneck in Tesla's production capacity, but these giga presses are fascinating. At Giga Austin I see one bridge crane...
  20. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Presumably because Burry was straddling the line between legal and illegal. In principle one way for Burry's negative tweeting to get SEC's attention would be through a short-and-distort scheme, although some would see the SEC's interference with this type of fraud as unlikely...
  21. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the...
  22. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, it is the Idra OL 6100 CS gigapress. Per the video's own information, the shown gigapress is being assembled at Idra (and from the video, this is clearly not at GF3). So Idra presumably assemble the press locally, test it, disassemble it and then ship it for re-assembly at the customer...
  23. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since the chips are tiny, it would also be cheap insurance to just order and store some more of them as a buffer against supply fluctuations.
  24. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I did not react kindly to this tweet. It's just a couple of weeks ago that some other Tesla bull tweeted their "breaking" insider scoop (to the effect that Fremont was closing down for two weeks) - that turned out to be totally misleading. In this case it is an unverified Twitter account (who is...
  25. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    During 2020 the SP went up by a factor 8.5 so it is hardly a typical year. :-)
  26. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How much would the EPA-range of e.g. a Model 3 LR be increased, if the test was re-done - only with Chill mode enabled (making this a non-EPA range test)?
  27. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, let's compare the Manhattan Project with Tesla's FSD project, from the point of view of copying: 1) the main principle behind the fission bomb was available in the open literature (Leo Szilard patented it before the war - for a reactor), much like Neural Network processing of image data, 2)...
  28. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some days ago I posted a Youtube video from 'T-Study' - this account is methodical and clearly fluent in Chinese so worth keeping an eye on. Here is a new video reporting on GigaShanghai, basically showing that the land being worked on to the East does _not_ currently belong to Tesla and that...
  29. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. Since people here with knowledge of accounting are so happy about 'recurring revenue' it occurred to me that for non-Tesla owners to get access to the Supercharger network, they should not only have to pay-per-use (probably incl. per-unit-time to limit stall occupancy by slow chargers)...
  30. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A mud field with some digging going on - super bullish!
  31. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is in business to grow - and by having 3rd party cars charge & pay - presumably at (at least) the same rate per unit time as a Tesla - at their Superchargers, they get more money (that other electricity sellers miss out on), allowing them to grow their business and the Supercharger network...
  32. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't understand this. You say you have no margin left, yet you enter into a contract that obligates you to buy shares on margin - if the stock price moves against you. Yes, if nothing unusual happens with the Tesla share price you will be fine - but when has that ever been a safe bet? - and...
  33. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Regarding supercharger access Tesla would be negotiating from a point of strength. In addition to entering a contract with a given car maker, they can also require that a specific EV-owner that wants to use the Supercharger Network for their car create a Tesla-account, to enable the payment -...
  34. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I didn't try the BTC-Koolaid and along with my strong belief that banks and the financial sector has to be regulated (by something other than a paper tiger) I have these doubts about BTC: 1) The transaction overhead in terms of energy is very high - a problem for everyone but especially for a...
  35. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Probably the headline is overly dramatic, but it is true that unlike a credit card payment (and in many cases also a bank transfer) a mistaken BTC transfer is impossible to reverse. I would guess that someone who has anough BTC to buy a Tesla already knows this, but the fact remains that normal...
  36. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks very much for this very helpful and entertaining analysis! On the topic of the GigaPress, someone with a reasonable insight in both the engineering and the economics went through quite a diverse set of sources and made a video with their estimate of the cost of one gigacasting, with some...
  37. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Absolutely. Porsche's 800V wiring ("architecture") is just a red herring, distracting from the very high charge-rate (3.75/h), that people here (e.g. Karen) immediately latched onto. Now their predictions of issues with battery degradation are coming true. For comparison, at 250 kW supercharging...
  38. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just wanted to state that all this quarter's ships from Shanghai to the UK/EU have arrived - this is relevant, because a large container ship has run aground in the Suez canal, currently blocking all traffic...
  39. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's one of the advantages of casting, unlike stamping casting has in principle no waste. People with actual knowledge: Please elaborate on 'in principle'...
  40. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While the RealTesla subreddit is heavily biased against Tesla and has a very low signal to noise ratio, it is maybe unwise to just disregard the actual images being presented for analysis there. The first (undated) image shows 7 containers filled to various degrees with casts that are placed in...
  41. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, I am logged in to here and to Twitter, and all I see of these unhelpful tweet-posts here is the bare URL.
  42. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, the actual regen implementation is simple. But what if your engineers know nothing about the electronics and software for managing batteries? Then sudden, short switches from discharging to charging and back - at random SoCs - can cause damage to the precious cells. Ford's lack of regen...
  43. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Non-Tesla automakers also deal in 'vaporware'.
  44. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, the fact that Tesla can pull this off (and I expect them too) is actually amazing - it least in comparison to traditional auto makers, in most organisations the development would grind to a halt given the need for such profound changes.
  45. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Select parts of that video is making the rounds among Tesla detractors... The windshield has a sticker with something like "new vehicle dealer..." - could it maybe be a demo car that somehow has FSD enabled and some not properly briefed driver is taking it for a spin?
  46. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Of more relevance is that apart from radar+camera(s) the #Tesla FSD already uses a range of sensors. Per Karpathy's autonomy day presentation these include (and are not limited to): ultra-sonic parking sensors, wheel ticks, accelerometers, wheel steering angle, etc. Apart from the car already...
  47. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Starting from 1/2 million in 2020, to get to 5 million in 2025 (five years later) would require an annual growth of 58%, getting to 10M would take 82% annually. So this would be possible by sustaining the growth as it was until now. To do this more Gigafactories (or more likely extensions to...
  48. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is evidence of transports of refurbished/Plaid Model S leaving Fremont, e.g. I recall that 2019Q4 saw only a symbolic number of Model 3 deliveries (I believe 15 to employees) from Giga Shanghai - I think this limit was explained as being for accounting purposes. Can we expect deliveries...
  49. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I watched it - it is what one could expect. Not a word about Tesla's opportunity to establish itself in India via Tesla Energy - which should have huge potential, given the unreliable power grids and high PV capacity factor there. The focus was entirely on the low price point of cars (and 2- &...
  50. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, some years ago when Germany decided that their BEV-subsidy could only be given to cars with a list price starting at 60k€, Tesla introduced a Model S variant priced at 59990€... The UK limit of 35k GBP corresponds to 48k$ or just over 40k€, that should be doable for a Tesla Model 3, or no?

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