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  1. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    All the same, if Tesla never built a Cybertruck, Ford would never build an electric F150. It's OK with me if the Cybertruck does not appeal to all the ICE pickup owners. I think it may appeal to more of them than you give it credit for, but even if I'm wrong that would be OK. The CyberTruck...
  2. ammulder

    How does margin really work?

    Well, I discovered that my experience described in the first post here was a temporary problem, and it just took a couple days for margin to start working properly once it was enabled for my account. I have been selling puts, which has worked out well on the whole, though not as well as it...
  3. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So I'm a bit confused on the SpaceX/moon lander news. According to the NASA release, it will launch with the SLS with the astronauts in the Orion spacecraft... but the moon landing will be handled by Starship? It this thing going to launch with both an Orion and a Starship? Is that sensible...
  4. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Except I think they wanted just under 730...
  5. ammulder

    2019 M3P Wheels & Tires (Philly burbs)

    Thanks for your interest, but these wheels were taken
  6. ammulder

    2019 M3P Wheels & Tires (Philly burbs)

    2 in good shape with < 5000 miles. 2 with small dents in the rims and bubbles in the sidewalls, but I expect the rims are fixable and at least the TPMS sensors could be salvaged from the tires. Anyone who can pick them up is welcome to them; I just want the garage space back. We're in the...
  7. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    That doesn't explain the weight loss or the range going down on the X. But, of course, it's still speculation. :)
  8. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    The odd thing to me is how they claim the pack will be 50-200 kWh and will enable estimated ranges of 400 miles or more. Am I right that the speculation is that the refreshed Model S will get 400+ miles of range from a 90 kWh pack? I know that GM probably means to put the 200 kWh pack in...
  9. ammulder

    SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets

    So let me ask this on the SBLOCs... let's say you can borrow 50% and you have an account that's 1M TSLA. If you borrow 500K, when do you get the equivalent of a margin call? Is it when your TSLA holdings value dip below the loan value (so your portfolio would have to lose half its value and...
  10. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Well, when I look here: Stock Option Max Pain It shows calls outnumbering puts starting at $850. That number seems like a black hole lately, sucking all towards it...
  11. ammulder

    SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets

    I don't know about IBKR in particular, but in general with a SBLOC you can do whatever you want except buy securities or pay off margin or the like. E*Trade has a FAQ on theirs that covers usage; I would hope IBKR does as well.
  12. ammulder

    SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets

    I believe this list demonstrates the issue I was trying to point out above... E*Trade gives that 3.843% rate for a $300K portfolio, whereas that's the TD rate for a $300K credit line... which if you can borrow 55% of your TSLA means it's the rate for a > $500K portfolio. The TD rate for a...
  13. ammulder

    SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets

    For what it's worth, I looked at ETrade and TD rate pages side by side... ETrade gives rates based on the value of the portfolio, whereas TD gives rates based on the credit limit (didn't someone give an example above of 55% of the portfolio for TSLA?). TD rates are still a bit better, but not...
  14. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seriously! Let’s turn the question around: if Tesla delivers on all their battery day promises, and yet the market is nevertheless swamped with an endless supply of superior batteries, is that a problem? Only for the oil companies, my friend.
  15. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear; it’s not that I don’t have sold options open, it’s that if the price stays in the zone and I do nothing, they’ll be profitable, and it’s hard to see what adjustment I could make to be more profitable without increasing risk a bunch. I had thought this morning I’d...
  16. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Curious as to what you all think... are we heading for another week of Friday $850? This morning with the BTC excitement I thought maybe not, but as the day progressed it looked more and more like the same old same old. I'm positioned well if we stay in the range. It's hard because I feel...
  17. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You know, we're acting like Tesla invented this, but for what it's worth, Progressive has had a program like this that changes your rates based on driving behavior: Snapshot Rewards You for Good Driving If I remember right originally it was a box you installed in the car, though that page...
  18. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Well, I had a limit sell order open on Friday afternoon for a 2/12 $830 put and it looked like there was no way it was going to fill. And then late in the afternoon, it suddenly did, without the stock price changing meaningfully. It wasn't a genius move or anything, I feel like mostly I just...
  19. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, if the whole principle is that Tesla knows what kind of driver you are, whereas a regular insurance company just treats you as pretty much average... then if Tesla wants to charge way more than a regular insurance company does, that would suggest...
  20. ammulder

    All discussion of Apple EV

    If I were the OEM, I would not be eager to give up on getting a copy of that "tons of data," because that basically commits them to using the Apple product (or a similar 3rd-party equivalent) forever. And when the third parties crank up the price for FSD, the OEM would have no choice but to...
  21. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    So, any thoughts on "wheeling" with the super-low IV? According to the Papafox reports, it's in the bottom 10% of historical values right now. Is there any choice other than "make less money with options"?
  22. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Isn't GM 44% of the #2 entry there? I guess that makes them a virtual #4?
  23. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, that didn't take long... GM's newest car is a V-8 Cadillac sedan that tops 200 mph Buried at the end: even the automotive press has moved on from breathlessly praising GM for going all-electric by 2035, to, well, have a look: The company as a whole last week announced plans to be...
  24. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I understand people are using solid state batteries already for very small devices. What do you suppose the actual cost of an automotive sized solid state battery would be today? I don't know how much of an improvement they're going for. I'd be a lot happier about pinning hopes on solid state...
  25. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Well, having sold a Feb 5 $840 put last week, I'm a lot happier this evening than I was Friday evening. I didn't think Tesla was worth any less, and I didn't actually think the earnings report was bad, and with analyst upgrades already coming in I was a little shocked to see the $700s again. I...
  26. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    You know, I'd be surprised if this car has great performance, range, charging capability, and most especially software. But god bless Toyota for finally pulling their head out of the sand and trying. It may yet prove to be crappy or a compliance car, but I hope not. I hope they'll turn over a...
  27. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To Model Y production from Giga Berlin, until their own cell production is ramped.
  28. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Very impressive. How many puts/calls do you have open at the same time for that kind of income?
  29. ammulder

    GME stock and shortsellers (out of main)

    I mean, I know we all hate shorts, but on the whole I'm not sure this is a good development. If a Reddit forum can throw a major axe into Wall Street, unpredictably and almost whenever and wherever they like, that's a big destabilizing influence. Just exactly what the market doesn't want...
  30. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I have little enough experience that I'm not sure I'd listen to me, but with that said... I prefer selling puts (with otherwise unused margin) to selling calls and I prefer weeklies. The weeklies just seem more profitable. I don't mind checking in on the stock price from time to time and...
  31. ammulder

    trading

    LOL. I bought back a put pretty near the high, like $899. Then I cleverly sold a new one on the dip... that is, when it dipped back to like $890. Whoops! :) Still pretty sure it'll expire worthless, but it's red for the moment and I definitely left some money on the table.
  32. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Well, if I look at the "margin calculator" -- while it shows a whole variety of fields none of which are just plain "margin", the "margin available for withdrawal" that it shows goes down by $72,500 less the credit from the purchase. That is with the "strategy" set to "put spread" which puts...
  33. ammulder

    trading

    That sounds awesome... the only thing is, this week has been pretty flat and with the earnings call next week I sort of expect volatility to go up (not quite sure whether that's sell the news or buy the news, but one way or the other). Though, I guess rising volatility in the short term has a...
  34. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    My concern with calls right now is that I think there's a non-trivial chance the stock jumps reasonably quickly to $950 after the earnings call. Not a huge chance, but there's also the chance that it runs up next week before the earnings call. All in all, enough possible upside that I wouldn't...
  35. ammulder

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    You know, I've always been kind of assuming that Chinese brands wouldn't make it outside of China -- for the most part wouldn't even try. If they do, then the legacy OEMs are triply-screwed.
  36. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Well, I'm pretty bullish on the stock, and that's why I'm selling puts against it. It is true that I've had to buy puts back early when either I sold them with poor timing (I've had to make two big bold notes to myself to sell only on a dip, and even then I don't always find "the bottom") or...
  37. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's fair. All the same, look at the growth in production from Q2 to Q3 and then again from Q3 to Q4 -- I can easily believe there are some growing pains / corners cut to accomplish that. Hopefully they can take a second to catch up and digest that growth and bring in more QC or at least...
  38. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Or, there's the option that Elon actually brought up, namely sending the 4680s to Berlin for initial Model Y production there until local battery production is scaled. Right now we'd put the two younger kids in the back, two older in the middle. But the two older are already taller than their...
  39. ammulder

    trading

    On further inspection, I think this is the difference between "margin" and "portfolio margin". I have regular margin and Level 2 options trading, so buying a put locks down the entire exercise price worth of margin. On the other hand, I could apply for Level 4 options trading and portfolio...
  40. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just as a data point, I asked the Princeton, NJ showroom for a model X test drive and they said they don’t have one and don’t expect to until March...
  41. ammulder

    trading

    ETrade doesn’t let me sell a put if I don’t have enough margin to exercise it
  42. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    You’ve got guts! I’ve seen enough dips in the last hour or two of trading — especially on Friday — that I’d plan to close well before that.
  43. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Yes... one of those hard-won lessons. I don't remember why I didn't order during a dip on Friday, but maybe because I was waiting to close out a previous put? Maybe just because I'm "dum"? :) Update: I put in a sell order for $20 for my $860 1/15 put bought at $38 last week -- the value has...
  44. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    To add to this... depending on the strike, another consideration on paying the fee to close rather than letting it expire is that the stock price may change after hours, putting an OTM option ITM after hours where you can't possibly close it any more (but it can still be exercised until...
  45. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If I were Audi, I'd do the same... send cars to where Tesla isn't. After all, if you sent them to the same places, you'd have to, you know, compete on merits.
  46. ammulder

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    LOL, Tesla volatility... So last Friday, I recalled reading all these posts about selling a weekly put on Friday to capture the weekend time value decline... wanting to be aggressive, with the stock at $880 I sold an $860 put for 1/15 for $38. Then the price declined to like $865 after hours...
  47. ammulder

    Options trading strategy/advice

    In the last 18 months Tesla has got to be up over 10x. So just as a thought exercise, why don’t you repeat your analysis for an expiration share price of $8800 and see what you think of those numbers?
  48. ammulder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Odd to call it confirmed when the original report has been revised to withdraw the details including time frame, location, and scale. So the best available information remaining is that Apple and Hyundai will do something, somewhere, someday.

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