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  1. H

    Ark Invest's 2025 Tesla Model

    Agree 100% The key business here isn't solar (hardware) as much as the dynamic grid management software/intelligence stack on top. And yes it's going to be a HUGE business. I like modeling my companies based on what the CEO has said publicly. In the case of Tesla this is: 20M cars in 2030...
  2. H

    Ark Invest's 2025 Tesla Model

    This... I've spent 4 years as a CV research engineer in self-driving. I know what to look for in the car's performance. I'll admit that Tesla has done an extremely good job with a vision-only system. Way better than what most of my colleauges thought would be possible. However, they have huge...
  3. H

    Ark Invest's 2025 Tesla Model

    The team at Ark Invest published their latest model for $TSLA outlining a case for a $3000 price target by 2025. That would be a 4.5x increase from the ~$650/share that $TSLA closed at on Friday. I haven't gone through the entire model and validated their assumptions, but some preliminary...
  4. H

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Anyone here have experience with selling ATM, or slightly OTM LEAPS on $TSLA and using the credits for buying commons... And on a bounce selling calls against that pos? I realized I can collect about $200 for $600p expiring in 2023 (so ~50% return on $400 risk). I can just buy commons, or take...
  5. H

    All discussion of Lucid Motors

    FWIW: I find it hard to believe they can sell 135k cars a year with an average of $100k sales price (more or less) which is what their 135k deliveries and $14B in revenues for 2025 would imply. They claim a 3.2M TAM for Luxury cars in 2023... But I doubt that TAM has an ASP of $100k+
  6. H

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Very nice call... Reversed right around there :)
  7. H

    All discussion of Lucid Motors

    That deal is trash for anyone holding commons... Just like 95%+ of all SPAC deals. BARF! Also... if I did the math right on their investor deck. They are projecting $23B in revenues on 250k sales in 2026... So ~$90k ASP of a car. And 20% gross profits.... So, basically they will sell 10x the...
  8. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Shh... Let it fall... Bring it back to $100 so I can write some Puts to finance my shares ;) Seriously though 5-year target on the company: $250 (base case), $400+ (bull case). Historically my price targets have been extremely conservative: $TSLA my target was $750 pre-split a few years ago...
  9. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Somehow I got out of that SPAC meme with a 45% gain rofl! As soon as the target was announced I decided not to HODL the SPAC, chamath or no chamath.
  10. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Be careful with this strategy... The same thing happened previously with $QS, $NKLA etc. There's a reason that warrants are underpriced: Basically the market is saying the common shares are too expensive and cannot last. Unfortunately, when you are short commons, you might get those early...
  11. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ugh Hydrogen is a fools errand... Stop it
  12. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    @Xepa777 Doubled my (paper) networth in a few months rofl.. In since 12.5c #thanks to him. This is a bit parabolic, but I'm not selling.. I can totally see myself looking back and regretting if I sold just like I did with $TSLA at $150 from $37 (pre split)... The company is only like $1.8B in...
  13. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    FYI if you go to his twitter, he no longer liked that tweet... Three options: - Fake youtube video for a pump and dump - he liked the tweet accidentally while scrolling his feed - he liked it for real, realized it was giving away inside info and either removed the like, or someone from Lucid HR...
  14. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Faraday is already in talks with $PSAC (and yes the stock has barely moved since the announcement). $CCIV is too big for a tiny fish like Farady. I'd bet ~85% chance of the merger being attempted and ~80% of it going through.
  15. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    If $QS and $NKLA can be worth $50B+ at the peak, then Lucid should be able to shoot past $50B without any problem. Their car/tech is more legit then either of the others.
  16. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    $CCIV is being crazy manipulated... $300m of shares bought on the pump and then about the same dumped soon after.
  17. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Anyone here investigated $CLOV? I took the SPAC pre-announcement and sold for a quick 40% pop but I'm wondering if it's actually worth holding some shares for a long-term investment. The business doesn't seem super exciting to me, wondering what others think.
  18. H

    Starlink IPO

    As far as I understand public ETFs cannot hold non-public assets because they need to be priced based on the basket of stocks they own and private stocks have no value so impossible to price. I could be wrong. But I think this was the reason Cathie wanted to create an alternative investment...
  19. H

    Starlink IPO

    So.. with $ARKX coming out in a few months... What will they buy? $IRDM and $SPCE seem like top picks... They can't own SpaceX/Starlink for obvious reasons... What else is there?
  20. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    FWIW I'm loving the recommendations folks make here. Maybe we can solve some of concerns above by simply tagging a stock as a "swing" (few hours, days, weeks, months) or investment with proper DD. In which case you don't care if it pops 20% or whatever, since you plan on hodling for 5-10+ yrs...
  21. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    yup... that was the video I saw a while back which made me yolo into $CCIV today... Rewatching it because I don't remember a lot of it. Just my key-takeway: "I like Lucid" :) Re-watching it reconfirms my initial takeaway... "I like Lucid"
  22. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Yeah... By no means did I mean to imply that Lucid's success would come at the cost of $TSLA's sales. But out of all the "non-Tesla" EV startups, and non-Tesla offerings by established automakers, Lucid is probably the only one that I find compelling as a consumer. Plus I think they have a good...
  23. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Rumor mills has it that $CCIV is a SPAC that's considering a merger with Lucid Motors. This was pure speculation a loong time ago, but now Bloomberg has picked it up, giving some more legitimacy to the rumor. I picked up some $CCIV commons @$11.xx on this rumor. Willing to risk 10% downside to...
  24. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Stonks only go up ;) haha But this is what happens when you have someone trying to put on a large position on a small company... It's been trading a lot of shares, but the dollar-value of the shares exchanged is not that much... Just about $20m traded a day. Good luck to anyone who wants to put...
  25. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    A $5 ITM call spread had a $7 ask hahaha! Oh I love IV. I sold it for $4.5 today with 90 DTE. I figure if the bubble pops between now and then, it'll correct substanatially. If not, max loss is 50c /shrug
  26. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    ^ Also, happy to discuss offline for anyone else who's interested in more info.
  27. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    At the risk of getting involved in a fight between @JRP3 and @Xepa777, I'll say this much about ABML: Based on my DD, they seem legit. The risk/reward is preferable to most other public market equity investments. It's a very early-stage startup but has the potential for serious returns over the...
  28. H

    All discussion of QuantumScape QS

    Seriously... Can someone explain why $QS is $110 in AH?
  29. H

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    Uh the more I think about it, the more I feel like there will be no post inclusion crash. For the price to come down, you need increased supply. However after inclusion you will effectively have an additional 150-250m shares "locked up", or a 35% reduction in float. So how will you get a crash...
  30. H

    Talking with 50-100x TSLA investors...

    @DaveT happy to talk about this more with you. Been here since '13 along with you at ~$33... But like @Xepa777 said, didn't have nearly enough money, so I think I bought ~$25k or so. I've traded in-and-out of my position throughout the years though so you won't find a single purchase dates back...
  31. H

    Is Ark-Invest really any good?

    I'll preface this conversation by saying: I've been following Ark since Cathy came on CNBC talking about $TSLA at $5k+ back in 2017 (or 2018)... I've been a super $TSLA bull since 2013 but that seemed insane even by my standards in then. Since then, I've invested a substantial sum of $ into...
  32. H

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Failing to move today on $TSLA is a bit concerning, but as long as we hold the lower support line we are fine. I think $TSLA moves out of the upper resistance line and we can see $500 again.
  33. H

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Thanks whoever mentioned $ARRY here... I wasn't able to get in on the IPO but bought day of IPO, nice quick gain here.
  34. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Does this sound right? Deliveries: 2021 ~900k 2022: ~1.4m 2023: ~1.9-2m 2024: ~2.8-3.1m 2025: ~3.8-4.2m 2026: ~5.7-6.3m 2027: ~7.5-8.5m 2028: ~11-12m 2029: ~15-16m 2030: ~19-21m
  35. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Haha overeager elon just confirmed 850k-1m cars in 2021
  36. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol why do they allow Jonas. Someone please buy all of their shares and take this moron off the call.. He's been asking stupid questions for 7 years now.
  37. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yep my first shares were at $34.xx... (pre-split obv.) needless to say I didn't HODL and hence I'm poor
  38. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah okay... that makes a lot more sense. Still ~1k shares avg. per vote... so the avg. retail investor voting has a ~$500k exposure to $TSLA.
  39. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Who are these "retail" investors that have $150M+ in $TSLA shares? Seriously!?! Here I can barely afford 1/1000th of that
  40. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anyone here actually have the FSD release and have tried it out?
  41. H

    If Long Term Gains ->Short Term Gains after election what's your plan?

    I highly doubt his tax plan goes through both houses and gets approved. Even if it does, I suspect it'd take effect for 2022 at the earliest, so you'd still have an oppertunity to sell next year based on the current tax laws. It would be impossible to make it retroactive for the year if it's...
  42. H

    Blind Faith Price Targets

    Interesting... What does the implied discount for 2018/2019 look like? One thing that Cathy said, which I found interesting, in last week's commentary is essentially that disuptive tech (Eg. $SQ) have reached escape velocity, and may continue to grow like crazy (regardless of dems vs. republicans)
  43. H

    Blind Faith Price Targets

    Yep, here's the blog post by ARK invest (with a link to their analysis spreadsheet on github). They value $SQ at $375 in 2025 which is ~$182B (post dilution). I simply rounded it up to $200B after playing around with some of their #s and also taking into consideration what @DaveT was talking...
  44. H

    Blind Faith Price Targets

    @jhm Given how successful this method has been, and now that $ARKK has publicly released their $SQ price-targets for 2025 (~$200B market cap), I'd love to see how the market discounts this over the past few years. If you have some time, I'd love a BFPT thread on $SQ :)
  45. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    69% reduction in Investment per GWH... I see what you did there ;)
  46. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What's the current $/KWH cost for Model 3? Something like $150ish
  47. H

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If investors cant figure it out... good for us... We can load up for another 10x in stock price after 5 years... 5 years of awesome accumulation time ;)

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