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  1. Esme Es Mejor

    I hope you don’t stop posting. Some posters can be idiots, but if you let them chase you off...

    I hope you don’t stop posting. Some posters can be idiots, but if you let them chase you off, all we’ll have is idiots.
  2. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Back in September, when I posted this, they could have paid cash. That would have been an additional $3 billion cash on Tesla’s balance sheet and $3 billion less cash on legacy automakers’ balance sheets. At any rate, the legacy automakers will not adapt, and they will die.
  3. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You’re responding to an 8-month-old post that @Artful Dodger dug up for reasons unknown. The suggestion was to do a capital raise & get the marketing benefit of support from companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon. This was presented as an alternative to spending money on advertising, which...
  4. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla Service Centers Right Now

    Yeah, I’m not sure either, but it’s worth looking into whether you can avoid the entire trip to the service center. If mobile can’t help you, they’ll route it to a service center.
  5. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla Service Centers Right Now

    They can replace a charge port with mobile service. Should be no need to bring it in.
  6. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have enough shares to retire if the SP gets to $7k one day, but I wouldn’t mind having more shares, so I sell puts. Worst case scenario: you don’t get the shares, but you pocket a nice premium. Best case scenario: you get shares at a discount from today’s price, and you also get to pocket a...
  7. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    NL+NO+SP deliveries are now over 10k in Q3. 2500+ just in the last 4 days.
  8. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Deliveries of Model 3 in NL+NO+SP have blown past the final numbers for Q2 and should pass Q1 in the next day or two. If you’re looking for bad news, S/X numbers look sure to come in behind Q2, though still ahead of Q1.
  9. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For that matter, I’d like to see Tesla sell small stakes (capped at 2-3%) to legacy automakers. Again, it would send a message to potential customers that the auto industry realizes that Tesla will be around for the long run. If there’s a visible path to 2 Terawatts of batteries, the cash could...
  10. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’d like to see Tesla doing this. I think it’d be very beneficial to have Google, Apple, and Amazon buy small stakes (1-5%) in Tesla. I don’t think Tesla needs more money on the balance sheet, even in a recession, but it doesn’t hurt. And it sends an implicit to potential customers that Tesla...
  11. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the context makes it clear I wasn’t being uberbullish.
  12. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I could imagine deliveries increasing from 95k to 110k+, but I don’t think Tesla can sell much more than they produce, the way they did in Q2. Q2 production was just over 87k, so I have a hard to seeing that increase by more than 22k in one quarter. I’d be thrilled if it did (there was the leak...
  13. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I wasn’t disagreeing. Just looking at what happens if all the unknown numbers equal the numbers we know so far (109k), or if all the unknown numbers equal Q2 numbers (101k).
  14. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After the first 2 months of Q3, Europe deliveries are 2245 ahead of Q2 (+26%). US deliveries (per InsideEVs estimates) are 3400 ahead of Q2 (+12%). Keep in mind the US numbers are just estimates, so maybe we’re only 1k ahead or maybe we’re 6k ahead. Combine US & Europe numbers, and we’re 5645...
  15. Esme Es Mejor

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    Is anyone able to expand the width on mobile phones? I see the link to expand width but, as far as I can tell, that only works on laptop. Thanks!
  16. Esme Es Mejor

    Hi! Thanks for your hard work on the Europe Registration project. Do you know what’s going on...

    Hi! Thanks for your hard work on the Europe Registration project. Do you know what’s going on with France & Portugal not having any reported numbers for July?
  17. Esme Es Mejor

    I agree

    I agree
  18. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sad that I missed out on the flash crash sale, too. Had my brokerage app up while doing some chores & saw 236. By the time I refreshed and was ready to place an order, it was already back to 241. Those chores cost me a quick $500.
  19. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    VW is still making money, but less of it. Q2 2018 earning were hit with a €1.6B one-time charge (DieselGate related). Factoring that out, Q2 earnings this year were down 8%, much like the shrinking profits at Daimler, BMW, Nissan, and Ford.
  20. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    It’s much better than that: it’s a flexible growth story. If China sales grow to 150k+, great. If not, Tesla has the ability to export lower-cost, higher-margin Model 3s not just to Asia but to Europe. With European SR+ coming from China rather than Fremont, battery and assembly capacity is...
  21. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The best thing about the design is that it moves them closer to an electric Corvette with a skateboard battery pack. If they were working with Tesla (I’m sure they’re not), they could have one on the market by 2021-22.
  22. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yup. Relative to NFLX, TSLA is up almost 12% after hours.
  23. Esme Es Mejor

    Nissan LEAF Becomes First Electric Car To Hit 400,000 Sales

    Looks like it’s time to cancel that Leaf and get yourself a 3. Tesla has officially enabled Chademo charging for the 3. Tesla Model 3 Gets CHAdeMO Adapter! | CleanTechnica
  24. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Mini was the most fun car I’d ever driven before I discovered Tesla. I’ve been wanting an electric Mini for years, but this version is weak sauce— which, sadly, is exactly what I expected from BMW. I’ll test drive one when it becomes available. It’ll never replace my 3, but it could...
  25. Esme Es Mejor

    model 3 backed out parking space by itself without any instruction

    For the briefest of moments, I misread this...
  26. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Small point: if the Norway data is correct, Ravens were being delivered during the last 10 days of June— though, even then, the majority of S/X deliveries were still pre-refresh. Extrapolating to all of Europe, it would only add a few hundred Ravens to the quarterly numbers. July deliveries in...
  27. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why wait? The first 2 days of sales figures are in for NO+NL+SP, and it’s never too early for bear trolls to start making ridiculous comparisons. In the first 2 days of Q3, Model 3 deliveries are down 73% versus Q2 (154–>42). ¡Qué desastre! Of course, deliveries are up infinitely over the...
  28. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The “barnacles” were scrubbed in May 2018, and almost all of the fires & other issues in the paint shop mentioned in the Niedermeyer article you linked to were from April 2018 and earlier. Fires in the paint shop have been more rare since the gray-bearded “barnacles” were scrubbed, not more...
  29. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla Used Inventory Down 30%?

    Or: Sales are highest at the end of the quarter, which means trade-in intake is highest at the end of the quarter. And those trade-ins will show up right after the end of the quarter. No conspiracy needed to explain this predictable cycle. Of course, Tesla gets credit from Wall St for new car...
  30. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I wouldn’t bother comparing June to March when we can compare full quarter Q2 to full quarter Q1. Of course, if June is too far below March, the entire quarter will be below. Officially Down Norway -20.5% Austria -10.8% Spain -12.1% Officially Up Netherlands +26.6% Sweden +45.1% Unofficial...
  31. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    That seems to be true, at least in the Norway data. Do we have that level of insight into the sales of any other European country (type? VIN?)? Model X still seems to have outsold Model S this quarter, so inventory ratio can’t be the only explanation, but it’s probably the main factor. So, the...
  32. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do you think they’re being dishonest, or just disorganized? I’ve seen lots of examples of disorganization and chaos at Tesla, few if any examples of dishonesty. Of course, disorganization/chaos is still bad as an investor, since it can look superficially like dishonesty & cost the company fans.
  33. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Yeah, I suspect the introduction of the Raven helped re-differentiate Model S from a long range Model 3. Both S & X took a hit in Q1, but S took a much bigger hit. This leads me to think the sales drop was caused more by the intro of the 3 than by competition like the e-tron or the I-pace...
  34. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Yup. Model S deliveries currently up 95% over Q1. Model X deliveries currently up 12% over Q1. Combined, S/X deliveries up 39% over Q1. The remainder of this weekend’s deliveries should nudge those numbers, but not in any meaningful way. Europe may be less religious than the US, but they seem to...
  35. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    With Q2 nearly complete, it looks like just over 8000 Model 3 in NO/NL/SP, down ~15% from Q1. S/X should be just over 1400, up ~40% from Q1. If these numbers apply across Europe (always a big if), that projects to ~16,850 Model 3 and ~4,450 S/X, or 21.3k total vehicles. With a more favorable...
  36. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    North America and Europe should account for at least 75k deliveries, and possibly as much as 83k. If they combine for 83k, a record quarter should be in the bag. If they’re more like 75-80k, we’ll need a strong contribution from China and the rest of the world. China. Long-term, we all know...
  37. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Europe. Europe has the most reliable data, with daily updates from Norway, Netherlands, and Spain (NoNeSp), and monthly updates from all the other countries. In NoNeSp, deliveries of Model S has already passed Q1 deliveries, and may beat by as much as 50%. Model X deliveries haven’t passed Q1...
  38. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    With the quarter coming to a close, I wanted to outline what we know, or think we know, about deliveries. North America. Our information comes primarily from InsideEVs’ monthly estimates and Electrek’s unnamed sources. Take with however many grains of salt you deem appropriate. InsideEVs...
  39. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can’t stand Linette Lopez, but I don’t think attacking her— or Russ Mitchell or Neal Boudette— does any good. She’s too far gone to change her views, and the attacks just let her paint herself as a victim— and some naive people will fall for it. If you have a chance to respectfully point out...
  40. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It isn’t even true for the traveling salesman racking up hundreds of miles a day. In that case, the cost savings on fuel & maintenance dwarf the time cost of charging. This is especially so because charging time can be spent productively on administrative or scheduling aspects of the job.
  41. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seems like California’s regulatory regime made things difficult on multiple fronts. Said they’ll re-start the service when/if those hurdles are cleared. Tesloop Rethinks Shuttle Service, Goes For Carmiq And Blockchain Instead
  42. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If Tesla has record deliveries in Q2, I’d love for Q3 guidance to be Q2 deliveries +1, with a statement that internal goals are substantially higher. When it becomes clear that deliveries will be materially higher than guidance, issue updated guidance, and enjoy the SP bounce that comes from...
  43. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That isn’t how I read the email at all. April numbers show that deliveries worldwide were 10-12k ahead of what they were in January. Also ahead of Q3 & Q4 which, due to North America only deliveries of Model 3, were much less backloaded quarters than Q1. Certainly, Q2 is still somewhat...
  44. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That used to be true, but not anymore. Here's Why Electric-Car Resale Values Are Rising, With Tesla Leading The Segment Of course, it was never true of Tesla, which had the sense to make EVs with good range. As other OEMs slowly catch on, they’re finding that their resale values are holding up...
  45. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And with that, Model 3 has pulled into the lead for best-selling EV in Europe for Q2. We all knew it would end Q2 as the leader (as it was in Q1), but it’s nice to see it take the top position before the End Of Quarter has really begun.
  46. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah. Using month-over-month numbers is silly, which is why TeslaQ likes to use them. April sales in Europe & China were both limited by the amount of inventory that reached them by the end of Q1. Registrations in Europe dropped from 15,767 to 3670 (a 77% drop) because that’s all they had left to...
  47. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What explanation are you looking for? 10k+ Model 3 in China looks like a good start. Not as good as the 23k+ in Europe over the same time period, but a good start. So, more than 33k Model shipped to Europe + China in Q1, since all the April sales were in-transit at the end of Q1. Nearly 40k...
  48. Esme Es Mejor

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    The average battery pack size should be substantially lower in Q2, due to the wide availability of the SR+, so unit production should increase even if battery cell production doesn’t. That should shift concern from vehicles produced/delivered to margins. The FCA pooling agreement should be very...
  49. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    According to InsideEVs, Tesla delivered 3900 more cars in the US in April than in January. According to the Europe Registration thread here at TMC, Tesla delivered 3400 more cars in Europe in April than in January. So, based on the sources we have, Tesla is at least 7300 ahead after 1 month of...
  50. Esme Es Mejor

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    But TSLA is for sale. I picked up some recently for 240. Google should have done the same— and if they haven’t yet, they should start now. I’d be happy if Tesla issued new shares to Google (because, as an investor, I prefer $6.5B in cash instead of $4.5B in cash), but if not, Google should pick...

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