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  1. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    or maybe they just copy/pasted the indemnification agreement from the last event and lawyers said it cannot hurt to have this provision in there because Tesla is a car company.... who knows
  2. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    So much chatter about BPS's and living off of options income so a few unstructured thoughts: BPS's exploded in my face, and almost fatally so, somewhere in 2018. I sold strikes that I thought "the stock price would never reach". I highly recommend against them because they have more...
  3. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are hedge funds that are official market makers as well. Hedge funds can be and regularly are market makers in different markets
  4. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    afaik there was some index rebalancing today
  5. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. Plus correlation doesn't imply causation. Edit: @Cattledog beat me to it
  6. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Agreed, at least that's how all ESPPs work that I know.
  7. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure if already posted/known: Tesla Dojo Custom AI Supercomputer at HC34 TL;DR a summary of the chip architecture behind Dojo
  8. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    AFAIK you cannot get this data out of TWS, but I'm not 100% sure. you could ask that question at twsapi groups.io Group to get a more qualified answer
  9. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    fyi, for those covert TSLAQ spies among you who considered opting out
  10. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Permabull goalpost move; you cannot state for months that long wait times are bullish and now all of a sudden shortened wait times are healthy.
  11. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    You are assuming that IV, which is a major variable for option pricing, will remain constant. This is not the case
  12. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As far as I can see, this statement is true on a dataset from IPO through last week, if you sell-to-open at Mon open (9.30am) and buy-to-close at Fri close (4pm), during regular trading hours (RTH). Note that once, the stock price dropped below 20% in after hours. Always close out your short...
  13. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm not sure if the level of demand or supply has an impact on the (width of the) spread, but on the IV for sure.
  14. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    they are likely looking at the realtime transaction flow, and infer from the price at which the trade executed whether it was bought or sold. The assumption is that if an option was traded at the ask, it was bought; if it was traded at the bid, it was sold.
  15. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    dark pools are private exchanges where large transactions can be made without moving the market price. thanks to SEC regulations, those transactions have to be printed on the consolidated tape as well. but they are usually printed with a delay of (I believe) up to 24hrs
  16. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting to see, in Switzerland the Plaid's price is now shown as CHF 125k ~ USD 130k. It's now CHF 5k cheaper than at the point the prices disappeared (note that in the same time, the the USD has lost ~7% to the CHF)
  17. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    without in-depth analysis, you're binding at least $904 in capital to achieve a $24 profit ~2.65% annual return which is below the 1 year T-Bill with a risk-adjusted return (risk defined as volatilty) that is much much worse than just putting it in such instrument (assuming holding the bond to...
  18. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    great article, thanks @Yoona for sharing! I suggest to make sure to read the comments below it though and do a backtest yourself before you execute it, especially covering a longer time horizon (would include the GFC).
  19. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I've been doing this for a longer while now (18+ months, [3...5]% daily CAGR --> 5DTE ~ [1.03...1.05]^5 ~ 16%...28%) and it really works well for me (anecdata / gut feeling!). I'm sometimes shivering when I read people here going only 5-8% OTM on 5DTE. I just don't want to miss the rocketship up...
  20. saniflash

    Expected Option Returns

    cf. CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index - Wikipedia
  21. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Ok agreed, in this sense it's a zero-sum game. I was referring to economical value generation contributing to GDP
  22. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I have made the same observation, anecdotally, around the P&D report, that IV continued to creep up substantially in the few days before the release despite the date already being known for a longer timeframe before.
  23. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    options are not zero sum. MM's earn the spread between the bid and the ask and, at least in theory, are completely hedged. So, in other words, they manufacture the financial product by means of abstracting the complexity (including the compute power, mathematical models, raising and retaining...
  24. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    can confirm on this end as well. Though it seems to have only affected accounts with portfolio margin, because in my other non-PM account, I didn't see the problem.
  25. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Same here. It pays not to get greedy and just mechanically close it out once it reaches a pre-set threshold
  26. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Re the discussion about legging in, I've somewhere read this is one of the top beginners mistakes in trading options. I don't remember the reasoning though. Maybe worth a check
  27. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    attaching 3min bars for PM+RTH+AH from ~mid-mar thru last Fri
  28. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have $2,200 in salary eligible for share purchase. At share price $660, I can buy 3 shares. At share price $220, I can buy 10 shares (3.3333 shares pre-split)
  29. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I think (!= know) this is a reasonable strategy. I personally sell CC's with 5-0 DTE that are anywhere 3% daily CAGR (= 15.9% total growth for the week if sold Mon at market open) to 5% daily CAGR (= 27.6% weekly equivalent) out of the money, depending on the expected events that very week. If...
  30. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yep while normally stock price goes up when layoffs are announced because of the reduced fixed cost base going forward coincidence this is leaked on a Fri AM when the stockprice was knocking at 800 with this open interest? now they even have a good shot at keeping it below 750, foregoing the...
  31. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My opinion is that we don't know the full story until we've seen the full email, unabridged. Since the media tend to spin Tesla-related stories, this layoff may well be focused on some departments (e.g., "administration" and other functions) where Tesla might have built up unnecessary overhead...
  32. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    details about the split (proxy statement for AGM) might be a small catalyst and should surface in the next 2-3 weeks
  33. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Aa a general rule, the laws in all European countries that I know of -- UK, F, E, IT, D, CH, CZ, SE, FI, DK, NO, ME, AT, SK,... -- prescribe that all prices communicated to a consumer have to be inclusive of VAT. In your example, Tesla would receive 64,970 - 10,373 (VAT goes to the government...
  34. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    you can couple this with selling a covered call. when the premium paid for the put is equal to the premium paid for the call, it's called a "costless collar".
  35. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Normally puts are more expensive than calls because puts are generally in higher demand (all these institutions buying insurance). Might be different with TSLA, with all these speculators....
  36. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    yes they can, to other MMs. MMs can buy and sell options to hedge their positions else they wouldn't be able to properly gamma hedge their positions. Also (this is not a strong argument given the supposed naked shorting, spoofing and other stuff going on in the market), MMs are supposed to...
  37. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm in the camp of "early assignment of puts is not bullish". As long as there's time value in an option it makes more sense to sell the option in the open market to close it out, and sell the shares separately. HOWEVER exercising an option is free AFAIK so you as the exerciser could save...
  38. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    as far as I understand it, the very obligation of the MM's is to continuously post bids & ask, and to transact at these very pricepoints in both directions. happy to be corrected though should that not be the case
  39. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Then we should've seen this pattern before? > Optimistic second thought: Wouldn't explain the level of purchasing though. # Well MM's are obliged to buy at the bid so you can shove it down their throat; they'll adjust IV accordingly to reduce the price they'll have to pay.
  40. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    reposting here from the main thread. Check out the open interest graph. Purely from a visual analysis, this doesn't seem to be a spread or something similar (IMHO could only be a ratio collar, +600p/-2x 800c, but does that make any sense?). Was also not able to find another expiration with...
  41. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    He's referring to the Fed's balance sheet, which now on the asset side has a lot of bonds which the Fed will eventually sell off. It will then "destroy" the money it received from the market in exchange for the bonds. This shrinks its balance sheet, as its inventory of bonds goes down, and its...
  42. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I have the same plan for $855s today, hiding behind 2 call walls. I will wait a few mins after market open to see how the price develops. On the one hand, the huge Call spike at $800 should incentivize MMs to keep the closing price below $800. On the other hand, if they need to further hedge...
  43. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    10M shares traded in the first ~18 mins
  44. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    $875 might be mathematical Max Pain but my assumption is that the MM's hedged the 800 & 850 Puts so my hypothesis is that a point landing on 900 would be the preferable outcome for our our highly appreciated, always helpful, liquidity-providing market participants.
  45. saniflash

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    truer words were never spoken. Stay patient
  46. saniflash

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    and never, NEVER get greedy with options. Should you find yourself on a track where you think you can make four or five-digits per week (e.g., by virtue of selling spreads), I can assure you this is the path to an eventual wipeout. Even broader heuristic: Any time when you think "wow this is so...

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