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  1. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pete Bannon is very well known and respected having worked with Jim Keller for a long time at a number of stops. He helped develop the Apple A series chips for one.
  2. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I wanted to post an interesting video from Stockcharts. The title of the video is a little extreme imo as there is some very good analysis of the last six months of market trading. TL;DW: Monitor XLY vs XLP, key sectors (Growth vs. Value, Small-Cap, Mid-Cap and Smal-Cap), and the 2pm to close...
  3. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla needs to show a prototype working in a real world environment. They could hit it out of the park and show more than one working in a Tesla factory. No union sympathies, not able to impregnate, works 24/7, no COVID/Monkey Pox concerns...literally a home run.
  4. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Apologize if this has already been posted, but there is a Youtube channel with interviews with Eroll Musk discussing young Elon. Dad of a Genius: Five Minutes with Eroll Musk
  5. wnorris

    Too funny not to share... [MEDIA]

    Too funny not to share...
  6. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For those of you in or around the New Orleans area. Tesla's Autopilot team is there at the Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) conference. They appear to have brought the Cybertruck with them.
  7. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a well researched article on what legacy auto is doing to emulate Tesla. Like most of these types of articles it stops short of extrapolating out in any real detail what is happening now into the not too distant future. Tesla is gaining momentum while the legacy automakers are still...
  8. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    FOMC Calendar 14-15 June 2022 Press conference is usually on the second day so Wednesday.
  9. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    SpotGamma thoughts on the current rally and how to play it with call spreads.
  10. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The primary item you should be focused on is batteries. If Tesla can source battery materials and produce them at the scale promised then they will succeed greatly. In two to three years you are going to start seeing this battery supply limitation play out in full scale across all other EV...
  11. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It seems like the market is looking for an excuse to rally. We have been in "oversold" conditions for a while now. Hopefully, if we do get a rally, it has some legs to it. I'd love to sell some calls with an extended DTE instead of walking the week-to-week tightrope.
  12. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    or negotiate a lower price. I would hate to think Elon would come out and sell more shares at the current depressed price.
  13. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anyone else getting antsy to see what Master Plan 3 has in store? I don't recall having seen any update on this since Elon last mentioned he was working on it in March. It would be nice for Elon to put this out to shift focus back to where Tesla is headed.
  14. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Thanks...appreciate your and @mongo thinking on this. I was partly asking to see if taxes played into your thought process. When I think about converting shares to LEAPs the eventual tax hit comes to mind (outside my IRA that is). This type of strategy would increase time risk due to theta as...
  15. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I am starting to monitor LEAP prices as well at these levels, but am curious, what type of returns are you targeting for shares converted to LEAPs? Understand this is pure guess work at this point, but wondering what others have seen in the past using this strategy.
  16. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Today is a big OPEX day with a lot of puts expiring. I had anticipated a rise today as the puts cleared and dealers (MMs) had to buy back their hedges. No idea if this idea was wrong or if the latest drama derailed this theory. Got sick of waiting and pulled the trigger and sold 750 calls for...
  17. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol...Walter Isaacson is likely going to have to break-up his Elon biography into multiple volumes. How do you define when to stop when new events/drama are occurring on a near weekly basis? This book is going to sell like hot cakes. I do really hope he is with Elon during days like today to...
  18. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It looks like someone placed a bearish sweep order where they spread their puts across multiple expirations. Instead of grouping the trade into a single or few expiration dates it seems they chose a wide 'sweeping' range.
  19. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some background on Tesla and North Carolina...(use reader view if your browser allows it to avoid the pop-up) "The sister publication to Triad Business Journal reported on Monday that email exchanges between the company, recruiters and local officials indicate Tesla requested specific...
  20. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    SpotGamma mentions TSLA call buying this week in a quick 10 minute video. He also highlights parallels to where macros are now to the last large market drop. Good to keep in mind if you are betting on a move up due to good production numbers. Be cautious.
  21. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This is something I have been watching with interest this week. Someone big is making sure this thing stays over $1000. Any movement approaching or below $1000 and you start to see large buying come in. It's been like this since Wednesday. Edit: The # of calls at the $1k mark has shifted up and...
  22. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Does anyone know when the 5M shares that Elon recently donated to charity can be sold? I have to wonder if these shares coming into the market could be causing some of the recent underperformance.
  23. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Something that may be useful to yourself and others is a script to calculate Gamma exposure. Below are charts that I pulled for Tesla yesterday. This is a concept I am trying to learn more about, but basically it gives you a potential data point on how market makers (MM) are hedged against their...
  24. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Can anyone provide the link to the Slack channel? I have recently moved back the US and getting back into doing this full time. Right now times time is spent rolling my cc's up and out each week. Not a terrible problem to have, but I would like consistent projects. My current strategy is to...
  25. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The beauty of Austin and Berlin is that they will dramatically increase supply, but also allow Tesla to lower prices. This should allow for Tesla to better meet their mission while giving us shareholders higher margins. Win-Win baby!
  26. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The variable to watch going forward will be how many maintain the subscription after the initial month(s). I would venture that there will be a high initial uptake with subsequent high churn until some point in time where FSD progress gets safe enough for daily use for the non-tech driver...
  27. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I have been using TraderSync since November and have enjoyed it. Since I am still working and have two kids I have not been able to spend as much time with it as I would like and certainly not maximizing the usefulness of the tool. There is definitely a learning curve to optimize how the program...
  28. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This is something I am contemplating about more and more on my -720p side. I am holding off on a BTC due to a belief that we are more likely to be in an up-trend next week as TSLA is likely oversold and could see a macro move up from last week. Hopefully there will be a little excitement over...
  29. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I am trying to understand this flip roll as it would get me out of my -720p 5/21 hole much quicker than rolling if I am understanding it correctly. Is the idea to establish the -400c to create a situation where you would have both go to assignment where the -p requirement to buy shares is...
  30. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    In a couple weeks the 200MA will be ~$600. A macro move down could have us there relatively easily. Note that I am not anticipating this to happen only saying there is a fair probability (likely 50% or less). I only call it out to say that this would be an ideal place to buy based on it being a...
  31. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This is great context to use alongside a view of the chart. Note I am no chartist and only try to understand where the support and resistance levels may reside. In looking at the below it is clear that 2020 was basically a massive run-up after a long period of stock price stagnation. Typically...
  32. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks brother...ordered. Not as nice w/o the tequila, but it will do for now. Let me know when they bring the surf board back. ;-)
  33. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dave Lee and James Douma discuss how what Tesla is doing with their birds-eye-view (BEV) neural nets is novel and will likely have other non-FSD applicability. Note: Dave has two recent videos with James discussing the topic. Both are valuable to understand what Tesla is doing in this space.
  34. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla will certainly adjust the monthly subscription fee every few months as subscription data comes in. Elon has shown no issue with making adjustments as data rolls in. Tesla will get it right in time. Personally, I do not plan on subscribing on a on-going basis (at least initially). I...
  35. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For those of you that are tracking FSD progress via Youtube I highly recommend watching Frenchie's videos. He is a beta tester out of Chicago that takes the car downtown and through various routes around the city. He tends to be pretty conservative in taking control, but his videos highlight...
  36. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Yes, a Charitable Trust looks very enticing and may be an avenue I pursue in the future as well. If anyone is interested in learning more about setting up a trading business the below links are where I got the idea. Investopedia: Benefits for traders who incorporate - A nice high level...
  37. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I hope you are right on the long term appreciation of 5x. :) @adiggs - have you thought about trading under an LLC as a way to reduce your tax burden now that you are retired? It would be a nice way of offsetting some of your expenses as well. I am planning to move back to the US (Raleigh)...
  38. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If true, this is bigger than I originally anticipated. This could greatly improve margins on the S & X while freeing up space on the factory floor. Give me a structural battery and this would be a home run.
  39. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nice article in Barron's on the psychology of investing. Relevant to those trying to determine what to do regarding TSLA. Here’s Some Investment Advice From Psychologist and Poker Star Maria Konnikova: Focus on Your Decision-Making Process "Poker definitely teaches you that players who are...
  40. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some random thoughts post S&P inclusion. Please note that I am often wrong on near term price movements so there is a guaranteed 50% chance the below is wrong. I am seeing a lot of spilled ink on Twitter discussing if passive funds were able to fill their baskets. Fact Checking on Twitter is...
  41. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, Monday will be interesting. I am very curious if Fact Checking (Tesla_Truth) is correct and we see demand for shares continue. Gary's thinking has been close to spot on in the last few weeks so I have to put a lot of weight to his ideas, but my hope is we have a little continued rise into...
  42. wnorris

    GDT: Inclusion Buying Indicators

    Interesting take that runs slightly counter to Gary Black's thinking on big players buying in advance to sell to indexers... https://twitter.com/Tesla_Tizzler/status/1339524641476538368
  43. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My thinking as well...if you are b/m'd against the S&P why would you want to wait knowing the size of this index entry is unprecedented. A sensible plan would be to at least build out a portion of your eventual position (say 10 to 15%) early while the price appears weak. This all assumes your...
  44. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Fund manager loses job shorting Tesla. Hopefully this starts a trend. :) Without a Clunie – the fund manager who shorted Tesla is shown the door - Master Investor "Over the last three years it has been the worst performing of the 108 funds in the Targeted Absolute Return sector with a loss of...
  45. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1338103995336957953 $tsla current short interest consists almost entirely of delta hedges by investors who are long $tsla converts. Because they are hedged, the shorts’ convert value goes up $1 for $1 with their short positions, so no need to close.
  46. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    @bxr140 Thank you for the explanation and your contribution to the thread. After I read your first comment stating selling of OTM CCs was bullish I could not for the life of me understand how that was possible, but the above explanation makes if very clear and simple. I had not considered the...
  47. wnorris

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I am seeing a VERY common trading plan related to the selling of OTM covered calls with the intent to capitalize on a price spike/volatility. Folks are all waiting to see what the price does next week and target a similar price range for these calls. This is something that personally I have been...
  48. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe it was Tuesday (who the hell knows what is posted on what day anymore) that folks here were expressing some consternation about how easily they have acquired big money via TSLA. Yesterday and today are the days where you "earned" your gains by bucking conventional wisdom and sticking...
  49. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is a nice article (from November) in The Economist that highlights a big flaw in Jimmy Chanos' thinking regarding Tesla. Personally, I hope he sticks to his guns and keeps riding this one out. Value investing is struggling to remain relevant "The nature of intangible assets makes this a...
  50. wnorris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, there was clearly an excess of buyers yesterday and earlier this morning. It will be interesting to see if the buying continues at the same scale. If so, we likely will see a morning dip and a pick-up from there.

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