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  1. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm curious - are folks here impressed with the physical demo at the beginning of the presentation? I'm personally surprised the demo was about the Bot walking. There is nothing really novel shown so far.
  2. D

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    The other one to track will be Tesla Daily (Rob Maurer). We'll likely see that estimate at the end of next week when he's back from vacation.
  3. D

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I find it useful to get an average of the quarter EPS projections. Here is what I've tabulated so far: Source Q3 Estimate (GAAP - Diluted) The Accountant (TMC) $1.25 Gigapress (TMC) $1.32 petit_bateau (TMC) $1.28 Tesla Economist (YT) $1.64 James Stephenson (YT) $1.25 Wall Street...
  4. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He's adding more reasons. Court case still set for October.
  5. D

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    there are all kinds of problems with snow. LiDAR and radar aren’t reading snow covered road signs either. Bad weather is a usecase to be handled after fair weather fsd is solved.
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    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    I think they have worked really hard to avoid doing any of this. Maybe I'm wrong, but if you get into manual pathing then that data has a shelf life as things slowly change over time. I expect they have been taking the "high road" on this and trying to keep the pathing as a pure algorithmic...
  7. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any only a little more than a month away from P+D numbers for Q3.
  8. D

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    One possibility is those people are wrong and have a proclivity to that topic and enjoy debating it :) We are literally watching 10.69 rolling out and are seeing AMAZING results over just the previous release on top of the fact that the management team at Tesla have been reiterating they think...
  9. D

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    The sensors on my Hyundai go crazy when I'm backing up in the snow. To be honest, I don't think any form of robotaxi will be running in a snowstorm. Certainly not for several years beyond any initial introduction.
  10. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any they will only ship them if they sense that there will be a request by the German government to use less gas/electricity. Edit: Ninja'd by Mengy (above)
  11. D

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    Robotaxi and autonomous driving are the same thing from the car from a driving systems perspective. Robotaxi layers on the "taxi" part in the software that deals with payment, hailing, etc. At least one of the options on the poll should have been "Tesla updates to HW4 + the new Samsung HD...
  12. D

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    The items in the poll are skewed to a specific perception. (X) Tesla will win autonomous driving because they chose a superior approach with hardware and the latest AI tech.
  13. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How does the IRA help the stock price? Tesla can sell up to the production limit of the factories. They will do that with or without the rebate.... (not trying to be sarcastic)
  14. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well those EVs don't last one year :cool: If a Tesla is on the road 10 years and they make 20M cars a year then it takes out 10% of oil.
  15. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    pre-market for TSLA looks ugly right now. $888 down 2%. No real news to go on - maybe worrying about suppliers and power in China? Edit: Seems rough across a basket of tech stocks I just checked.
  16. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree with all the above. But training the robot requires General AI and this is nowhere near being solved. I'm not in the field so I won't guess how long it takes to solve this problem - but it isn't something that close. I think they will be able to train bots with code and thus make them...
  17. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It will be exactly like FSD. The difference between AAPL and TSLA is that TSLA shows the inside view from product reveal until product release. AAPL just shows off the final product. As with everything that both AAPL and TSLA have sold it takes (many) years to iterate them internally before...
  18. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    James did a great job being excited but yet tempering the expectations. It is going to be YEARS before the bot is something that will be a saleable product. I think it will be iterated on for years inside of Tesla.
  19. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And a war, and a Covid shutdown and a slow 4680 ramp and worries about power in China and China -> Taiwan. Lots of headwinds to keep the lid on a bit. I like to think of it as the spring is coiling up. Eventually the headwinds pass and there will be pop in the SP - probably as we approach the...
  20. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Completely agree. Elon is pumping FSD and AI Day a lot this past month or so. Clearly he has seen a remarkable uptick in FSDs improvements. I'll be scouring YT on Saturday looking for the first videos (provided it actually comes out on the 20th). This plus the share split will make next week...
  21. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yup. And it still needs to avoid it. I'm guessing they have already added this to labelling process in 10.69.
  22. D

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I'm happy to hear that your analysis agrees with mine. Q4 could indeed be a boomer with all the upgrades out of the way and yielding results!
  23. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It could be the NA maps download - that would be a big one if he's on vacation and doesn't want to do the 6GB until he's home. I can't imagine he is not on the latest FSD.
  24. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just watched the Fred Lambert's video where it tried to drive off the cliff. That's the kinds of errors that Tesla really needs to focus on the most. Its the time when the driver would potentially the least attentive.
  25. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought Tesla would have more "goofballs" with the release to 100K users to be honest. I think they are taking a very measured approach to how many people will be exposed to FSD relative to the improvements they are making. I'm not sure they are gaming the progress like you suggest, but the...
  26. D

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Ok - we're halfway through Q3. What's everyone's guesstimate for Q3 GAAP Diluted EPS for the quarter? A year ago it was $1.44 for Q3 2021. Last Quarter it was $1.95. Personally I'm thinking right around $3.50 or so. It's a tough one to measure though with the two factory ramp happening...
  27. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Isn't the Semi (alone with CT) designed specifically to use ONLY the 4680 cells?
  28. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TeslaEconomist's latest video has non-GAAP EPS (diluted) at $8.09 for Q4 which is a lot higher than I've seen in other models. What do people think of this estimate?
  29. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The P/E Ratio has slowly been climbing again in Q3 which is encouraging, but the overall slope over the past year has been declining. I expect that a trailing P/E ratio of between 70-90 for the coming few quarters until the next Big Thing.
  30. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The valuation of a company has to include the Macro Economic forces that affect it - not all of which you can just swat away as "noise". Our own personal opinions about what the TTM or Future looking P/E ratios are reasonable for Tesla are irrelevant. The shareholder base (and those...
  31. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Last year did not have: China in lockdown for a month China threatening Taiwan endangering chip supply Russia going to war and holding energy shipments hostage for places including Germany Increasing scrutiny on Tesla's autonomous safety record by the NHTSA Twitter 4680 Ramp issues You seem to...
  32. D

    The Resource Angle

    around $1M in volume (dollars not shares). Negative Net Income for the past 5 years, no revenues whatsoever.
  33. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It makes sense to build Starship there if they are flying from there. Florida has a large eco system from the past 50+ years of that industry in that location. Lots of skilled workers in that field and suppliers are established. Same argument is used for why they won't be building a car...
  34. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The only way Tesla puts a factory in Florida is if the state kicks in some crazy subsidy and even then I doubt Tesla would bite. I would expect it to be close to where there is a large supply of available workers, transportation hubs (trains/ports) and relative closeness to suppliers. Detroit...
  35. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure why you would say 25 years. Cars don't last forever and 12-15 is very reasonable relative to how long cars are typically on the road. Could be - or he could be sandbagging the news in light of AI day. He really really wants to protect the news that will be shared on that day...
  36. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just read a "fool"ish article about why TSLA is down today. One of the reasons stated is that the next vehicle plant will require either debt or an equity raise. How did Austin and Berlin get financed?
  37. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We're a year away from deliveries to start and there is a big blocker remaining in the 4680 ramp. It's only been a couple weeks since we heard about the impressive improvements to the ramp from Elon and Drew, but they still expressed (in their own way) the opinion that there was quite a ways to...
  38. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think that the situation in Taiwan has a lot of TSLA investors nervous. We'll see what the investor meeting tomorrow yields, but I don't expect any big moves until next week and the China/Taiwan thing settles down again. In the meantime the coiled spring that is TSLA stock will store more...
  39. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also if something "bad" happens during these exercises that could absolutely affect production at Giga Shanghai. I think it is very very low probability but its definitely something to keep a close eye on.
  40. D

    software update 2022.16.1.1

    Can confirm - my April 2021 MYLR just got this as well. I'm also on 2022.20.7
  41. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How much was in that cushion!!!!!! Edit: $856 - keep shaking! Look under the couch too!
  42. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If they are for Fremont then why are they building up such an excess inventory? (they would build them more JIT if it was). No, I think these are going somewhere - and I'm guessing Berlin.
  43. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "True AI". That's a very tricky concept :) No - that robot was not programmed to run that specific course. They give it a course to follow and the robot uses both vision and sensors to navigate its way along the course. I doubt AI day will be about pathing - that's a problem that is...
  44. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Optimus - the bot they positioned at AI Day 1 - is likely years away. I'm ready to stand corrected on that, but I'll believe that until Tesla announces otherwise.
  45. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It shows the level to which they are trying to solve "full self driving" though. They aren't doing "mostly acts like a human self driving". Its really encouraging to see they are working on the corner cases now. The question is - how many of those are left? There are lots and lots of other...
  46. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think this is why Elon says Tesla is "nothing" without FSD. While clearly Tesla is not "nothing", they will slowly just become a "car company" over time. (Let's ignore Solar/Energy for the moment). Of course they are a very well run car company and their profits and zero debt are very...
  47. D

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I created it in google sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ynr6O_xTGugEsXcQZS0GSTc0bWWV4lhDtwZJzyDGw1k/edit?usp=sharing

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