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  1. CapitalistOppressor

    Sold CHAdeMO Adapter Brand New For Sale

    Off topic, but is there anyone in or near Honolulu who I could rent a CHAdeMO adapter from for a few days? Made the mistake of renting a Model S on impulse for my trip without realizing how bad the charging situation is here for Tesla’s. I’ve gotten halfway through the trip with (allegedly)...
  2. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    The data points to the competitive grid storage offerings being costed at ~$700-$3,000/kWh. Tesla is currently $250/kWh and seems likely to fall below $150/kWh in just 4-5 years. Morgan Stanley expects the strongest competitors at that point to be in the $500/kWh range. This means there...
  3. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    EOS Energy is a tiny startup with no scale whatsoever. They have not, and might well never, achieve their targeted $160/kWh price because they still need vast amounts of capital to achieve the economies of scale required to hit their price target. That is especially the case because Tesla is...
  4. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Except in this case Tesla is charging less for the high end version. Make no mistake, the 7kWh battery is the more capable battery by a lot, with a potential ROI likely far higher than the 10kWh version (I haven't done the math, but we are talking ~2,500 cycles, vs ~500 cycles over a 10 year...
  5. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall technical discussion

    I'm pretty much agnostic on this issue, but while it's certainly possible and one way to get the claimed performance I don't think that having the same number of cells makes enough sense. First, Tesla is charging less for the 7kWh system. Why would they do this when the main cost driver is the...
  6. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Seems reasonable. The battery he analyzes only advertises itself as a souped up UPS system, and it's great for that application. In the "power generation" role it's probably not so great. He didn't analyze the daily cycler or the commercial grid storage solutions. The grid storage version...
  7. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Wall Street Journal appears to be reporting that the utility scale packs will retail for ~$250/kWh, which is well in line with cell costs once you do your markup for a finished pack at a retail price.
  8. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    I don't think it's a cell count issue. Probably just more cooling and more durable power electronics. Also, aside from cell count the other possibility is a different chemistry. But I'm even more skeptical of that option because the economics kinda suck. Functionally though it might fit the...
  9. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Yeah, I just assumed that the presentation just glossed over all of those issues because the intent is that this is sold through their partners (Solar City primarily) and that those partners will be selling integrated systems whose cost is quite a bit more than $3,500/wall. When I saw it didn't...
  10. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Honestly, the big near term opportunity here is the utility scale projects. So you probably aren't missing anything.
  11. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Isn't this intended (at the home level) primarily for solar customers who already would have an inverter?
  12. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Yes. I actually expected details on financing/leasing arrangements and was surprised it wasn't there. At the same time I was so pleased with the price I didn't get worked up over it.
  13. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    This configuration is probably what they intend for folks who want to charge their Model S while being off grid.
  14. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Depends on whether they are using a different battery chemistry. If they are the same cells, then likely the cycler battery has much more robust controllers/cooling/components/software, etc.
  15. CapitalistOppressor

    PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

    Loving this. $350/kWh for the light duty backup power model and ~$430/kWh for the high duty deep cycler, which is much more akin to the requirements of the utility packs. Anything in the $500/kWh price range for utility applications is a game changer and will instantly make Tesla the dominant...
  16. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon's demand "secret weapon" ...what is it?

    This is smart. - - - Updated - - - Of course, I wouldn't be the only person who thinks this is smart, especially two months after the initial comment, lol. - - - Updated - - - All good stuff. - - - Updated - - - I agree, 100%. And your avatar is hilarious. - - - Updated - - -...
  17. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    Yes. Tesla started aggressively shaking the reservation list bush starting in December 2012. There were mass emails requiring customers to configure, including people with ridiculously high reservation numbers. Even in December the aggressive move into the list was so anomalous that mass...
  18. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    So much this. If I'm Elon in March 2013 I'm feeling fairly confident about everything except my ability to build a Gigafactory and go do Model 3 on the timeline he wanted. The sums needed for expansion were (and are) so vast that even after the stock tripled (or whatever) in April we had major...
  19. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    I recall the axe being wielded in Europe (or China in a more recent example), and I the quiet way that GerogeB shuffled off the scene seemed like it was related, if only because of the time issue. But your comment reminds me of other cuts too, some of which were blogged about and had an...
  20. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    Anyone want to take odds on George Blankenship being the source? Whoever it was was bitter about power hungry underlings, and the whole slant seems to come from a source on the Sales side. George didn't leave until November, and my impression was that it was because of the problems in...
  21. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    Yeah, I had a very negative view of much of what was written. I started off wanting to call BS to everything he wrote, and I knew I was intensively tracking sales at the time, so I figured I'd do a debunking. Once I reminded myself of my concerns about April and my earlier concerns about...
  22. CapitalistOppressor

    Elon asked Google to buy Tesla for 6bil in 2013

    The period of time discussed in the article is one in which I feel I have a great deal of insight to offer. My sense is that the author is talking about some real events that occurred, but the timing is a bit smushed around, and maybe some of the terminology being used is causing confusion as...
  23. CapitalistOppressor

    Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

    i vote they switch out the fish tank for a hot tub. There appears to be enough room in back now, and the falcon wing concept offers a practical way to step into one without being a contortionist.
  24. CapitalistOppressor

    SolarCity (SCTY)

    SolarCity finally did something to make me interested in them, so I'm going to dive right in with my "expert" opinion after having started my Solar research by reading the last two pages of this thread (because reading just one page wouldn't be very thorough). Though, I suppose that technically...
  25. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    Also, keep in mind that all of the investor prospecti, conference calls, etc are using 2020 as the reference date for when all of these metrics will be valid. So 35GWh of cell production in 2020 might mean only 27GWh of production in 2017 with all the same machining, processes, etc. So...
  26. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Opens Its Patents To Boost Electric Car Adoption

    Very much my thought as well. The legacy automakers have no core expertise or interest in batteries, which is the core enabling technology for EV's. In contrast, I could totally see major battery manufacturers signing on to this because Tesla just dramatically lowered the barriers to entry for...
  27. CapitalistOppressor

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    I know I haven't been participating, so this might seem out of left field, and I could easily end up being wrong, but I'm not impressed with the after hours weakness in TSLA. I think a lot of speculators who guessed wrong on the metrics are feeling burned and betting on a big fall. They...
  28. CapitalistOppressor

    Seth Klarman's bearish thoughts on the current market climate

    Correct, a high number is more affordable. I didn't even think about it not being intuitive, but I could see someone not being aware of how the chart is formatted might think it is showing extremely unaffordable housing, when its showing the exact opposite (ie, housing is incredibly...
  29. CapitalistOppressor

    Seth Klarman's bearish thoughts on the current market climate

    This is just mistaken. The action you are seeing as a "bubble" is just investors rushing in to fill a vacuum, and most of the really "strong" price increases you are seeing are something of an illusion because they are coming off of a highly depressed base. If you take a large number "x"...
  30. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    Of course there isn't anything preventing such a thing from occurring. Except for an apparent lack of capital to make it happen. My worry is that capital will become available only as demand for the Model E becomes concrete, either because Tesla is itself hesitant to step out on the limb, or...
  31. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    I am less concerned with whether this deal gets done (though I dislike the fact that its open ended right now), than I am with the implications of Tesla only being able to produce 500k cars in 2020. In my opinion, that is a real blow to the bullish case supporting the current stock price.
  32. CapitalistOppressor

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    I'm not sure I buy the notion that Tesla will have a particular need for additional access to the Texas market in 2020. By producing only 500k cars they are likely to be substantially supply limited on a global scale. So the entire premise of the article (that Tesla is somehow salivating at...
  33. CapitalistOppressor

    Google+ video hangouts (TSLA & other investments)

    In theory it could, but a 30GWh plant is only enough to build ~400k Model E cars (it actually can range from 300-500k depending on your model). In the conference call their expectation seemed to be that the giga-factory would only be capable of supplying the Model E, and I think that is the...
  34. CapitalistOppressor

    Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call - LIVE BLOG

    With the Texas Legislature out of session until next year I am skeptical that Texas is in a position to offer the kinds of policy and economic inducements that would be required to bring Tesla in. They had the opportunity in 2013 to play nice with Tesla and they booted it. - - - Updated - - -...
  35. CapitalistOppressor

    Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell

    I added the following to the OP - Since this post/thread has been referenced a number of times in the media, I just want to clarify a few points that are important in hindsight. First, its not certain that intumescent materials are being used in the Model S pack. In the case of the pack...
  36. CapitalistOppressor

    2013 Trading war stories

    My initial (and by far biggest) investments in TSLA were made ~$28. I made a nice chunk of money trading the stock while it was bouncing around in the $30's through the end of 2012, then made a really nice chunk playing the volatility around the government debt limit negotiations at the end of...
  37. CapitalistOppressor

    Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call - LIVE BLOG

    Awesome work by callmesam btw. - - - Updated - - - Yes. That said, they'll have to be careful about how much storage they divert, because their continuing ramp up of car production will largely be constrained by battery supplies for at least the next decade.
  38. CapitalistOppressor

    Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call - LIVE BLOG

    I've been thinking they will go to New Mexico to make good on dissing them by choosing to buy NUMMI after having a deal already set up for a factory in New Mexico. Plenty of sun there, and there and the Texas panhandle (just across the border from New Mexico) has some of the highest quality...
  39. CapitalistOppressor

    Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call - LIVE BLOG

    This is a given. The 30GWh of production that they seem to be targeting for the factory will not be enough to supply the 700,000 cars they plan to build in 2019. The Giga-Factory will be the first of many.
  40. CapitalistOppressor

    Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

    Thanks :) It's hard to keep super plugged in all the time. The company is doing very well, and not doing anything unexpected if anyone was following these forums in 2012 and 2013 (and presumably earlier). So the marginal value of my contribution is quite low, and the marginal value of long...
  41. CapitalistOppressor

    Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

    Also, Tesla will consistently downplay the possibility and effects of ZEV revenue. They've been trying to fake out the press into thinking ZEV goes away by focusing on how it goes away in Q4.
  42. CapitalistOppressor

    Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

    I've been too busy with other projects to run the numbers, but if I recall, my old models showed that 2014 should be slightly less ZEV revenue than in 2013, followed by a probable increase in 2015. But forward looking projections into that market are pretty hard. It really depends on how the...
  43. CapitalistOppressor

    Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

    Capital raise incoming. Surprising no one.
  44. CapitalistOppressor

    Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

    Good point about the tires being included. Interesting anecdote - a few days ago an industry source informed me that Panasonic is charging Tesla 50% of what they are charging the typical laptop makers, largely because Tesla is ordering in huge volumes and allows Panasonic to run their...
  45. CapitalistOppressor

    Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

    Not sure I'd try to extrapolate from what Elon had to say in the interview because its hard to tell which number he is basing his estimate off. It could be 30% of the €40k battery price the interviewer gave, or 30% of €72k base price of the car (given by the interviewer). Or Elon might be...
  46. CapitalistOppressor

    Best Wishes and Happy Holidays to all

    +1 on wishing all of the folks here a happy holidays (moderators especially).
  47. CapitalistOppressor

    Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

    Fixed the misspelling on the name.. :) Also, since I'm here and have been reminded about tftf, I wanted to post this video of Straubel that found its way into my bookmarks after reading one of his posts on SA. It's a nice video, but skip ahead to ~20 minute mark to see the discussion on...
  48. CapitalistOppressor

    Nonsense from John Petersen

    Peterson is just glomming on to the "field failure" meme about Tesla's batteries that cropped up in some right wing blogs. My sense is that Peterson wouldn't know what a field failure was if it jumped up and bit him in the keister. I was arguing with the blogger somewhere (Red State?) who...
  49. CapitalistOppressor

    Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

    Actually, if I am right about which article you are referencing then he was citing $4/cell as the cost to build the factory (ie if you want a factory that produces 100,000,000 cells/year that factory will cost ~$4(100,000,000) or ~$400,000,000 to build). His per cell cost to build the actual...

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