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    Why not build an Electric Plane?

    Seriously. Musk states in his hyperloop design "A quiet supersonic plane immediately solves every long distance city pair..." a 50/50 SpaceX + Tesla joint venture should start developing small, private electric planes. They are currently technologically feasible. See the study below With the...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Yup And i've been thinking, to get even more crazy, a virutal utility of tesla cars. O and using the superchargers to advtise the cost of energy per mile in gas terms on large signs by the highway. 200 in the northeast, they see cost 10gallon $/gas/miles cost charge $/battery vechine/miles...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    There is always another chance to buy with no news gaps. I'd say 33 before 38 based on the chart
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    It's going to get killed over the next 3 months. Sorry. No institutional buyers stepped up post earnings, shorts covered enough pre earnings to gather some firepower. The cost to borrow tesla shares dropped from 25% to 5% at my broker post earnings. No reason why. Nasty few months, pre...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    Does anyone actually know how much they get in EV credits per model S? The only numbers I could find were from 2010. And I don't think they can be right. Cause if they are then EV credits total about 15k/car. ​Edit:Actually might have found it Getting 6k/car from their 2011 10-k numbers...
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    Technical Trading Strategies

    Sell slightly OTM puts 2 months out. Buy them back 2 weeks out. Rinse and Repeat.
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    k finished going through the report. Key things I got out of it. A cancelation rate of about 30% from rolling reservations to nonrefundables This puts the 6000 reservations/quarter closer to 4200, less then their 20k/year production rate but within reach. Still no demand problem SG&A is going...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    "In the first quarter of 2013, we expect to generate slightly positive net income, on a non-GAAP basis. We also expect to be near breakeven on cash flow from operations" NON-GAAP net income. Not meaningless, but not real profits. Near breakeven is not breakeven, and is a much less confident...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    Anyone know how many stores they had in Q3? Their SG&A is actually a pretty big factor. 8 million increase from Q3 to Q4 due to the opening of 8 service centers and ? stores (32-Q3 stores at year end) If the 8 million comes mostly from the service centers, then their plans to double the...
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    Reservation Cancellation Rate

    Reposting the numbers for canacelation rates "Q1 cancellations are likely to remain elevated" To get the cancelation rate "As a result, we added more than 6,000 new reservations in Q4, up from almost 2,900 in Q3." "After deliveries and cancellations, our net reservations at year end, were over...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    "We ended the year with more than $221 million in total cash, after having made the first quarterly principal payment of $12.7 million to repay the loan to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) on schedule" "In Q4 2012, our negative free cash flow (cash from operations plus capital...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    This isn't the real reaction yet wait for the conference call. I only skimmed the report but nothing is a huge red flag. problems "Q1 cancellations are likely to remain elevated" To get the cancelation rate "As a result, we added more than 6,000 new reservations in Q4, up from almost 2,900...
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    Not bad. Gross margin 8% is disappointing but they are sticking to the 25% outlook
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    2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

    Good Idea I'm actually not holding my position into earnings. May be an awful decision but I sold out at the end of today. Tomorrow could be the start of an absurd run. But we just had an absurd run. Given how much the stock has risen in the last month, I'd say we're set up for the final...
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    NYT article: Stalled on the EV Highway

    Assuming that Elon's post gets picked up by the mainstream media, this entire incident could actually really help Tesla. Data that demonstrates the Model S's ability played for free in many major outlets. This could be a huge blessing in disguise/
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    NYT article: Stalled on the EV Highway

    It is fair to say that Elon has DESTROYED the reporter's claims with hard evidence. That post also really shows how much testing went into the model S. Freaking impressive. Musk Should start building planes, seriously.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    This was not the pullback. This was the test before the pullback (the pullback will be when the market is also weak)
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    NYT article: Stalled on the EV Highway

    New York Times Article It's very negative Stalled on the E.V. Highway - NYTimes.com Here's my question: I ran the several sets of range shown on battery/range driven the article gave. See the picture attached for the table. Here's it in text. To-From Battery Lost Range Driven % of actual...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    I'm 85% out of my position right now, made a ton. Watching for reentry.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Yup. I have my tesla lottery account. Aggressive options. 3k start. If it reaches 100k I buy a Model X.
  21. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    This is the start of a pre earnings run to mid 36s. post that entirely depends on earnings. confirmed by this mornings action. buying now is a good idea. - - - Updated - - - Its actually absurd how easy it is to chart Tesla. Same Studies as yesterday, just the 1m ticks morning plus...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    charts. Course everyone reads the Crystal ball differently.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    I got back into Tesla today. Feb 37 calls. Just FYI. next target is 36.45. Should be resistance pre earnings. I expect it to touch the mid 36s in the next two weeks. Plan on selling the feb 36 strike calls into strength pre earnings, short spread for February. then use the proceeds to buy...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    It's (probably) due to lower reservation payments per car on non signature orders. And the delivered most of the signatures this quarter. This has made news before. "Bank of America/Merrill Lynch forecast 2012 Model S deliveries of 5,000 units. Reservation deposits for the first 2,000 Model S...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    It's possible. There's a pretty nasty looking head and shoulders pattern forming on both Tesla's short term and longer term charts. Generally a really bad sign, but its happened to Tesla before without disaster.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Also some negative market-watch press this morning. Tesla will need more loans to stay afloat in 2013 - John Shinals Tech Investor - MarketWatch possibly the most one sided thing i've read.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Yes. It will get to 4004. Bought 50 of the Jan 38 Calls today for .40 each. Stock's been holding up well since the last pullback and is again testing its uptrend. Going to sell 37 Calls into Strength for >1.00. https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-19%20at%209.08.37%20PM.png...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    I honestly don't think they'll be a short squeeze in awhile. Stock has been rising smoothly and retracing predictably. Shorts have been covering in a controlled manner This has been a textbook rise over the last couple of months. The guys at Goldman are doing their job well. Buy the dips sell...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Good Action today. Some Resistance at the 38.2% Fib extension but stock closed above it. Target is 34.89, 35.4 short term. Sells are at 36.12 and 37 (78.6 and 100% fib extensions). May see +36 before Friday, only 2 resistances left to go...
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    How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4?

    Your Right, I don't know how I missed that 8-k. Ok then I can totally see them getting to their targets and even up to 450/week by EOY. I have 2450 Delivered, 3344 Produced in Q4. Graph https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%202.12.34%20AM.png Data Table...
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    How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4?

    So my conservative estimate is 2250 Produced, 1648 Delivered. 400 Cars/Week production reached just in time. I calculated Delivered vs Produced using the Delivered and Produced numbers from the most recent 10-k and just assumed the lag would stay constant. Because Elon said that 8k/year is...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Few Videos of Elon from the Solar City IPO Day. Mentions Tesla a bit. Can get his fiscal Cliff opinion too. So much respect for him, need to find more ways to get Elon capital. Can't wait for Spacex. Musk: SolarCity IPO Price Sought Wasn't Aggressive: Video - Bloomberg...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Yup Tesla violates put-call parity. Alot. So much so that at a terrible afterhours bid/ask, I can still make an arbitrage trade at market prices. https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%203.11.07%20AM.png problem is that put-call parity assumes that the stock can be...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Ok so I present tesla With fib extensions/retracements since earnings. Key Price levels. It's really been a textbook bull since earnings in terms of pullbacks/advancements. Little current twitter chatter thrown in too. Hourly Since Earings...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Elon said he'd love to give numbers about model s production. Got into solar city at 10 this morning.
  36. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    at support here.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    hedged out 1/4 of postion by selling dec 35 calls this morning for 1.00. edit: nice volume today
  38. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    its a good breakout morning on volume.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    I was using IV as implied volatility which is calculated based on TV. Using Intrinsic/Time values by themselves works too. Implied volatility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  40. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    only 3 left to fill. then resistance at 34.20 is done. https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tesla%20iv/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-07%20at%203.47.22%20PM.png
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    There's some very weird activity in the options of tesla today. Calls trading at 0 IV. more details coming. Update: Ok here are the trades that have gone through. Calls at 0 IV, which generally isn't ever supposed to happen...
  42. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    SA Article about yesterday Time To Buy Tesla: Cash Flows Turn Positive And Federal Probe Not An Issue - Seeking Alpha Today has been super boring. Apple is the interesting one today lol.
  43. A

    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Yah, its very very surprising. Them being cashflow positive means no more secondaries. That removes a huge risk. I still think we're going to get a huge move up because of this news very soon. Today was a flush to test whoever bought on the way up yesterday. The day is not over yet, what...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Spoke too soon. Looks like the fall is done. Broke and held on volume. Buy here. I'm on the ask for March 31 puts (selling the puts) here. https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-04%20at%2012.12.42%20PM.png
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    It's trading like crap today. Can't break that 50ma. https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-04%20at%2012.08.06%20PM.png Could be more downside at this rate, but if it breaks holds over the 50ma should run back up. Testing yesterdays lows.
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    I agree. Buy the dip. 33.63 is a good spot where i'm adding even more. It's actually acted like a negative beta stock on a daily basis for the last few weeks. Just basing this off of observations. Not sure what it means or why. Stock's trading like crap today though. Gaps everywhere. Looks...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    Here's the update from my broker. 10:04 AM EST, 12/04/2012 (MidnightTrader) -- Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares are down 1% following a report by the Washington Times claiming the company may be under investigation. According to an article in the paper, the U.S. Immigration and...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    It's completely irrelevant, but its getting more attention on stock sites then the cashflow postive comments. Twitter / StockTwits: $TSLA so far trading flat despite ... I'm buying the crap out of this dip. On the bid for dec calls, variety of strikes. EDIT: Most got filled on that dip. This...
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    TSLA Investor Discussions

    There desperate now. this came out premarket. StreetInsider.com - Tesla (TSLA) Said to Be Under Federal Investigation for Buying Foreign Parts of course, no mention of Elon's comment last night anywhere It's going up today, once news gets around.
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    Tesla Buyout Possible

    he let both his internet companies go. Both bought out.