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  1. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Not my best job of stating my case. Sorry. A bear would be saying that Tesla is a sell or would be shorting it, spreading FUD, etc. I still think Tesla has some upside and it would not be a bad idea to hold onto it if you own some. I just think its days of being a huge growth stock are...
  2. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Growth curves for this kind of business or industry has always taken an S shape for a reason. They start out slow as the under funded start-ups or established businesses with underfunded teams struggle to get their arms around the new technology. Early products are made in low volume because...
  3. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Whenever there is a new tech, the brands that are in front of consumers boom, but there are lots of opportunities among the less sexy, but vitally important supporting technologies. Because a higher percentage of the investors are knowledgeable and not chasing a brand name, they tend to be...
  4. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Peleton always looked like a fad to me. It was already booming before the pandemic. Some engineers can be quite wise and there are plenty of politicians and humanities majors who make horrible decisions. Rather than judge a person's decision making ability on their college degree or...
  5. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    The difference in population densities is interesting. Washington State has 3 counties with less than 5000 people. The next county to the east of us has 12,000 people, but it's also geographically very large. The density is virtually zip. If you look at the county data, the bulk of new...
  6. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Yup, I'm holding off on selling any of the fossil fuel stocks. I want them to get back to around where they were before the crash at the beginning of the pandemic before selling. Most of the stocks should get there in the next few months, though the exploration support stocks like Schlumberger...
  7. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Being a common stock investor can be of value to embarrass the company into doing something in some circumstances. When I was at Boeing, they built a brand new building for our group across the street from Boeing field. There was an old woman who I think was in her 80s literally living in the...
  8. wdolson

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    I saw it last night. Technically all money these days is based on the faith of those holding it, but not cryptocurrencies are based on people's faith in the government issuing it. So I don't completely agree with him there. However I do agree that the energy needed to create cryptocurrencies...
  9. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    Right now autopilot is not allowed in some countries. Though it is legal to have a car with autopilot in those countries, you just can't use it. I would assume it will be the same for a car with FSD in a jurisdiction that doesn't allow it. This site has a lot of detail on FSD laws in the US...
  10. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    The laws as they exist are gray about driver assistance like AP. However there are many laws about drivers not paying attention to what the car is doing. Those laws have grown in number to curb people using their cell phones while driving. As it is now, you will get ticketed for distracted...
  11. wdolson

    Why does Tesla use a Resistance Heater instead of Heat Pump

    The problems I have are cooling the room on days that are cool outside (very little difference between the target temperature and the outside temperature). The only time I run the heat in the office is on very cold winter days, but the whole house heat is usually running and heating the room...
  12. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    Don't count on it. Elon is a minimalist. It took significant criticism to include the optional center console as standard equipment in the Model S. To stay competitive Tesla is much more likely to cut prices. Right now I think they have the largest profit margins of any car maker in the...
  13. wdolson

    Why does Tesla use a Resistance Heater instead of Heat Pump

    Another problem I've found with heat pumps is if you want to cross the ambient temperature. Say the car is 120F, temps outside are 90F and you want to get the car to 75F. As the temperature in the car approaches 90F, the heat pump will essentially quit putting out cold air and getting the car...
  14. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    Each state has their own transportation departments and each state has their own transportation laws enacted by their legislature. Congress also makes transportation related laws too as well as the Federal Highway Administration. I believe in some states local counties or cities can have some...
  15. wdolson

    How many Y do you spot in a day?

    I just noticed where you are. I grew up in Monterey Park and my father's mother lived in Alhambra about 10 miles away. It was long enough ago (my parents moved away in 1984) that hybrids were a pipe dream. I still see more Model 3 than Model Y, but I see more of both now than S or X. When I...
  16. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    The first two days after getting the J&J vaccine my kidneys went nuts. I had to drink lots of water too. I also had a fever for two days. I'm also wondering if I got some small clots about 2 weeks after getting the shot. The injection site started hurting out of the blue, then a few hours...
  17. wdolson

    AP1 ONLY Please -- life after 2018.50.6

    I don't think so. They replace both screens and the MCU unit itself. I think the sensors for the GPS are separate.
  18. wdolson

    What other tech stock to consider?

    From what I read, the company had a contract with NASA to provide the solar panels for a couple of upcoming missions. If the company actually does have some kind of tech nobody else does (with a patent), they will probably get bought out by a bigger fish in the industry. It might go nowhere...
  19. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    Wherever possible hazardous processes are limited to expose as few people as possible and isolated. And everything possible is done to mitigate the harm. The news coverage an event gets also affects how much an issue is going to get regulatory attention. Air travel has been proven to have...
  20. wdolson

    What if FSD doesn't materialize?

    Level 5 is a huge lift IMO. Even if Tesla or someone else manages to get level 5 working, it may be years before regulators allow it. The political liability for any regulator who approves something like this is very high if even one person gets killed because of it.
  21. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    It is a satire website, but IMO they often stray into bad taste, but different people find different things funny. The Wikipedia article on the publication: The Babylon Bee - Wikipedia
  22. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Interesting, but why does an EV need a giant grill?
  23. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    IMO Toyota jumped the shark with the giant grill. People were complaining that Toyotas were looking boring so they did the cosmetic change of a new grill on all their cars, which took them from boring to fugly.
  24. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Hopefully the Solectrac will actually become a reality, but right now it appears to be vaporware. This thread has many examples of announced EVs that never saw production (or the manufacturers are still making promises as the odds of production in quantity dwindle). A conversion is...
  25. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Every fall I buy a few boxes of apples from an organic orchard over near Mt Hood. The owner is very pro-electric. He went nuts the first time the local Tesla club showed up at his place. He's told me one of his biggest frustration is that there are no electric farm tractors. He'd also love...
  26. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    My neighbor is one of the few people I've encountered who want to go from an ICE pickup to a Cybertruck, but most ICE truck drivers today are usually more conventional in their vehicle tastes. The Cybertruck is a weird looking vehicle and they don't like that. The Venn diagram of people who...
  27. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    The supercharger network puts Tesla 4-5 years ahead of the competition on charging network access, and an indeterminate, but huge lead in convenience. Nobody else has figured out how to fast charge as conveniently as Tesla. That might win over some buyers, but a lot of people think the...
  28. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    A snippet from an Elon Musk interview: Does Elon Musk do some very technical work (code, design, etc.) at SpaceX? - Quora He claims to spend about 80% of his time on engineering and design. He also said the perception is that he's a business and media guy, but he disputes that. Obviously...
  29. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Doug DeMuro (the Youtube car review guy) has opined that the market the Cybertruck is likely to make the deepest penetration into is the Jeep market. He thinks the mainstream pickup market is going to be too conventional to go for the Cybertruck. They're more likely to hold out for the...
  30. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    Some people are very good at translating abstract information into a model of reality, while others are very poor at this. Those who aren't good at it need some kind of experience to drill the reality into their heads.
  31. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    The Vance biography of Elon paints a pretty good picture of him. When he started SpaceX he went to Russia with some other people to try and buy some old Soviet rockets. When it became obvious the people they were talking to had no intention of selling them any rockets and were just trying to...
  32. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    I know you're being sarcastic, but technically he actually is a Physicist by training. And he has self-taught himself to an amazing degree. He understands the technical details of all his businesses better than most CEOs. But he has limits. His opining about the pandemic demonstrated he...
  33. wdolson

    Michelin launches first EV tire designed for high performance electric cars

    ICE engines are so inefficient, the losses there make up the bulk of energy losses. So better tires will help mileage a little, but the improvements will be small. EVs on the other hand have incredible efficient motors and the bulk of energy loss comes from friction and air resistance. Tires...
  34. wdolson

    Tesla, EVs, and the auto industry's response

    I'm not sure you are completely understanding me. A lot of the extra electricity demand will be soaked up by the reduction in gasoline refining. I can't find it now, I think it's a Ted talk by a Physics professor from Oxford or Caimbridge who makes the case that renewables are not going to...
  35. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    I know someone who knows some of the key people at Neurolink personally. They have been pursuing this for a couple of decades, what Elon brings to the party is large bags of cash and increased attention. The brain research world is very interesting. My partner has been doing neurofeedback...
  36. wdolson

    Tesla, EVs, and the auto industry's response

    That was a long time between post and response. I don't have serious concerns about electricity generation unless some people in a rush to be green force fossil fuel power generation plants to close before there are adequate alternatives. The dirty secret the oil refiners try to keep from the...
  37. wdolson

    Elon Musk

    There is video of a Plaid Model S parked on the street in San Francisco. It may have been a test mule though. There were some oddities with the switch panels on the inside doors. It also had a yoke. There was no license plate, not even a temporary.
  38. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    A large percentage of the public don't care about the efficiency of their vehicles unless they have to. The oil crisis of the 1970s caught a large number of Americans flat footed because few thought anything of energy efficiency before that. Gas had been so cheap for so long and there had been...
  39. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    True. Just wondering where they draw the line. Though the article only said 4 had fainting episodes. I'm just curious what the other reactions were that they consider serious side effects. Years ago I knew a woman who was a civilian nurse at the Bremerton Naval Base. A big part of her job...
  40. wdolson

    AP1 ONLY Please -- life after 2018.50.6

    Has the MCU been fixed with the recall? I got the recall letter three days after I upgraded my MCU. I'm not really interesting in the games and such, but it is nice to not have to sit in a parking lot waiting for my MCU to reboot before leaving. It always did it occasionally, but it got to a...
  41. wdolson

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I think GM decided to revive the Hummer nameplate with an EV because it is a halo brand. Vehicles equipped for off roading are very popular right now and the Hummer is the ultimate offroad truck. Plus an EV Hummer is a high margin vehicle that will help GM recoup the costs of developing EV...
  42. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    I don't know what qualifies as an "adverse" reaction. Most people I know who had the shots had a reaction. For Pfizer and Moderna it was usually after the second one. I had the J&J shot and had a fever for 2 days. Two weeks after I developed muscle pains in several places and the muscle...
  43. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    I've heard from many who had the second shot that if they have a reaction, it's usually after the second shot.
  44. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    The author did make the point that some people were making too much politics about it and that just showing T-cells isn't enough.
  45. wdolson

    Lowest Wh/mi challenge

    The Salton Sea also gets below sea level, but it's even further from any mountains. The Pike's Peak descent is probably one of the best drops in North America. It's probably why they have the hill climb contest there every year. It's a real challenge both from engineering and driving to climb...
  46. wdolson

    Coronavirus

    I don't know if anyone has seen this. Info from an immunologist Got the J&J vaccine on March 17. Had a reaction within a couple of hours. had a fever for two days (peaked at 101.5 F), chills, bad muscle pain, etc. My partner went for neurofeedback a couple of hours after we got the shot...
  47. wdolson

    Lowest Wh/mi challenge

    There is a road that goes from near sea level at the Columbia River to 6000 ft on Mt Hood (Timberline Lodge) in a relatively short drive, though I think it's about 40 miles. I believe Timberline Lodge to Sandy, OR is about 30 miles. Sandy is about 1000 ft. Mt Adams is also close to the river...
  48. wdolson

    Wiki Model S Delivery Update

    I have two 1st gen Ryzens I want to upgrade when the price of the new gen comes down, but stocks are very low even four months after introduction. Below the video the description says: "New Tesla model S plaid spotted in San Francisco"
  49. wdolson

    Lowest Wh/mi challenge

    There are some steep mountains in the west. I think 13,000 ft elevation is the highest in Colorado. There are some roads in Oregon that get above 5000 ft. I think one goes to about 10,000.
  50. wdolson

    Wiki Model S Delivery Update

    I guess I misremembered old articles. It does look like they buy parts from IC makers. I still suspect Tesla is facing less supply problems than other car makers. In 2020 the rest of the car industry saw a large reduction in demand, but Tesla saw an increase from 2019. Other car makers...

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