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  1. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I disagree on your use of "reliable power". For me, reliable power is stable power, and thus the most economic use of storage IS to stabilize power (aka provide reliable power), which is how it helps reduce renewable curtailment. You're using "reliable power" to be a result of having enough...
  2. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TMC should do better. The constable said (correctly), that there was no one in the driver's seat. Not the same as no one was driving. I stand corrected. My apologies for not reading past the headlines.
  3. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Why not geothermal + battery storage then? geothermal provides baseload + off-peak battery charging, while the batteries provide the on-peak power "boost"? seasonal fluctuations have been one of the hardest issues to solve with solar. It seems geothermal + battery provides good coverage of...
  4. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Okay, I think I have the situation worked out. So let's recap your hypothetical and see if this makes sense: - you started off with 125k in cash. - your broker has a 40% margin requirement on TSLA, so you buy 400 shares of TSLA @ $650/shr (104k is your equity, 156k is on margin loan). - you...
  5. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Don't use margin myself, but I'm pretty sure that as soon as you withdraw that $100k, you would no longer meet your 40% margin requirement and would immediately be margin called. And I think your remaining $13k becomes at risk (to cover the margin call) if TSLA drops ~$7.50 the day after.
  6. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I too think this year will be a consolidation period for the stock price. But how much of that is being priced in the options market? IV seems to continue to drop and options at strike prices that are 5% away are no longer returning any significant credit. In order to net the desired amount...
  7. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I saw it as Mercedes Marketing team doing a phenomenal job of product placement. "Where can we get the best exposure for EQS 'spy shots'?" "Nurburgring? nah, not a sports coupe" "out on our test track? nah, no one seems to care" "Aren't there half a dozen drones flying over the Tesla Fremont...
  8. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I hear ya. It used to be MUCH easier. The recent change to allow rotating the car visualization kind of nerfed the swipe-left-for-tire-pressure. Half the time I end up rotating the car image (even though I know roughly where my swipe needs to start - harder to aim when the car is in motion...
  9. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please excuse me, but I'm going to use your post to answer a long standing issue that TSLA bulls face. When asked by well-intentioned friends and family about the risk of investing in TSLA or buying Tesla products, I've long struggled with an answer that won't lose their focus after just 10...
  10. O

    Feasibility of FSD (incl. AI and Dojo)

    My reading of it is that AGI means something different from General AI. I read AGI as being artificial human intelligence (like being able to play billiards, poker, drive, AND troll the forums - aka pass a turing test), while general AI is still an expert-systems level intelligence, but without...
  11. O

    Feasibility of FSD (incl. AI and Dojo)

    We're talking about interpretation of the signals from the cameras here, aka computer vision. There aren't infinite methods for that, since lidar has been explicitly removed as an option. The driving part is pretty deterministic, as that's what the rules in the driver's handbook are for, so...
  12. O

    Feasibility of FSD (incl. AI and Dojo)

    Sorry, but that's bad logic. You can try all the other methods, fail to solve FSD, and still come to the conclusion that solving general AI must be a requirement (read that as pre-requisite) to solving FSD. So no, FSD isn't solved yet. The pre-requisites were simply identified and confirmed.
  13. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I'm curious if that many options would have a market moving impact? Do you sell them all at once or in batches? I notice the SP change direction when I simply BTO ~10 call contracts while trying to catch a falling knife.
  14. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I sell weekly calls against all my shares and at ~10% OTM to maximize the premiums at a level I'd be comfortable with rolling out if necessary. Unfortunately, this week caught me in a bad spot (sold 4/16 720c on monday!!), so I just rolled them out to 5/1 750c for a net credit (per bxr140's...
  15. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    How many people buy a base silverado? Just because the consumer doesn't choose the base model (SR in this case) doesn't mean the production capacity isn't there for it.
  16. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    So how did this go? Last Thursday, I wished you luck on this trade. If you don't mind sharing, I'm curious as to what became of it?
  17. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Given GM's history with the Bolt, I'm willing to bet that the Cybertruck SR gets to 500k capacity well before the any GM EV does.
  18. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I wish you luck with this experiment! When I've tried it (before falling in love with selling covered calls and puts), I found that the theta decay made it VERY difficult to make significant profit off of buying puts. Even when I had the direction right (SP is declining), the option wouldn't...
  19. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If this was his intent, then I feel it's a repeat of the same mistake that he made when he joined Trump's advisory council. Some noble efforts are wasted in vain when one fails to account for other people's ill-intent.
  20. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    As a computer engineer, I must disagree with this characterization. A "bootloader" is piece of code that the BIOS chip looks for and executes to load the actual OS (Operating System). Firmware, although are code, are NOT boatloaders. They are the application code themselves and are often...
  21. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not a fan of olive garden, but I'll play. 694.20 cause you're all overestimating the power of memes. You can bookmark this post and rub it in my face come year-end. Even at nearly 700 (3500 pre-split), that's a 50% CAGR since April '13.
  22. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Fred posted Toyota's X Prologue teaser: https://electrek.co/2021/03/10/toyota-releases-first-teaser-picture-x-prologue-electric-car/ I did some basic image manipulation on it to get some more detail (it seems Toyota's marketing team parked it near some bushes):
  23. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization

    Just to clarify, my stance isn't that solar wouldn't be a source of electricity on mars. It's that electricity would be too valuable to squander on thermally intensive activities like smelting. Lighting and environmental heating (assuming we're NOT relying on radioactive decay to produce that...
  24. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization

    Mars has less solar irradiation than earth, so any electricity derived from photovoltaics would be too valuable to squander on any kind of heavy industry like refining metals on mars. So I think importing refined aluminium produced from the moon would be a permanent solution. A mass driver...
  25. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Fortunately, I have been rolling down the covered calls to harvest income there (lowest priced call is 740C 3/19, because I'm too chicken-*sugar* to go lower than that). I just wanted to make sure that I have the perspective right on the puts side.
  26. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization

    That would indeed be more mass efficient, but only for the outer container. It's a 7-month trip, consumables will occupy a significant amount of the actual cargo volume. Even accounting for dehydration, you'd need about 460 lbs of dehydrated food (1-Year Emergency Food Supply (2,000+...
  27. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization

    Al is easily recyclable. Given it's high conductivity, electric arc furnaces that turn parts of the cargo containers (I'm assuming that cargo containers would be needed to keep stuff from jostling around during launch and landing) inside the starship into new products would probably be the...
  28. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If one retires early, because of an addiction to TSLA, what exactly do you think one would be doing during retirement?!
  29. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Most likely Munro did the teardown, but when they do it for a customer (UBS), they abide by NDA's and don't disclose the details. I think Munro got in trouble when they released some of their findings on the model 3 on an AutolineTV segment.
  30. O

    7 Seater Pics and Details

    SO THAT'S WHY IT'S SHAPED LIKE THAT!! I originally thought was a silly oversight to maximize space! I think it's time to get my AARP card now. :p
  31. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    wow, today was brutal. And I agree with adiggs that there's probably more downside coming. In light of that, what would you have done differently? Here's what I've done so far: TSLA @ ~790 on Feb 18, 2021. - STO 740P 2/26 for $10.93 TSLA @ ~700 (and dropping) on Feb 25, 2021. - BTC...
  32. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    Who's your broker? I have an IRA with Schwab, and at first I thought the UI didn't allow for complex option trades (unlike the TDameritrade UI), but it's just that they buried the "legacy options trading" tool link. So your broker might be like Schwab and they've simply buried the interface...
  33. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I already read that link, it doesn't cover the tax treatment for shorting puts. "Protective puts" are being long the option, which is the opposite trade.
  34. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I think this is the part that zeApelido was trying to point out. You're claiming that selling puts (aka shorting the put option) can be treated as long-term capital gains, but documentation about selling covered-calls (aka shorting the call option) does NOT get that treatment. According to Tax...
  35. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Easy. Roll them forward into the next DITM LEAP. DITM options should have minimal time value.
  36. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    It seems we're not discussing things from the same book, so I'll use your post to make my point. You all (+msphor and winfield100) are thinking in terms of consumer costs and not in terms of energy value in a global currency perspective. What you paid (for the panels, wiring, inverter, etc)...
  37. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Great, now add in the costs to run conduit to all those sites, the inverters and batteries to make the electricity usable and the maintenance to keep them intact and you'll get to my point that it will never be "free". There will be a baseline cost/kwh for that electricity. That baseline cost...
  38. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    We're nowhere near 115,000 sq miles of solar panels yet. Besides, your rooftop panels merely converted the solar radiation into heat, the same amount of heat that would've been produced by your roof, so the impact to the environment was exactly the same as your roof; except that you now spend...
  39. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Forgive me for the irony (in case anyone remembers John Peterson?) of using Axion Power as my source, but we'd need 115,625 sq miles of solar panels to produce 18.54 TW of solar panels: Powering The Entire World With Solar: Surface Area and Panel Requirements - Axion Power California has a...
  40. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    I see a few supporters for the "moving to a virtually free unlimited resource" ideology, and I just wanted to point out that the cost of energy will reach an asymptotic base cost (maybe 2c/kwh?). It costs energy to produce the panels from which more electricity is generated. And although we...
  41. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    As you've said, for the longest time, oil carried substantial token value because it was fundamental to a functioning global economy. The only reason we're all thinking about what would supplant it, is because there's a social call to end oil's relevance/use in the global economy. BTC (or...
  42. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    I have some DITM 740 puts (sold them last week). I hope I've learned my lesson from previous roll attempts and will try to roll these into 720 (still DITM, but less than the 740's) puts this thursday (assuming they don't get exercised on me!). As of this writing the SP is slowly recovering, so...
  43. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    I think that connection is weak at best, and my view stems from bitcoin's lack of utility. Cash/currency has "value" storage capacity, because cash is liquid (easily converted to goods and services and vice versa), and the supply could only be increased by one institution (U.S. mint). Fossil...
  44. O

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Would love to hear your thoughts on bitcoin (or crypto currency in general)! Or at least link to the other thread. You're a data guru and I feel that your perspective (even where we don't agree) has been very valuable!
  45. O

    7-seat config waiting room

    If you ever decide to become a TSLA investor, you should know that Tesla does things differently. They might reduce prices to spike orders for the short-term, but their ultimate goal is to get as many people switched to EV's as they can build them to trigger Wright's Law. As more get built, it...
  46. O

    Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

    All it'll take is for at least 5 of time to take up the offer, and they'll learn first hand that the 4th person in line to refuel will have to wait an additional 15 minutes for the nozzle to defrost! I'm just astounded that Toyota hasn't learned their lesson?!
  47. O

    Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

    What did you decide, since it seems to be closing right around that point?
  48. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    That the extra 20-30 mins charge time on a road trip during a meal break won't be a big deal? Many consumers are willing to make "minor" concessions to save a few thousand dollars. Hatchbacks appeal to the frugal crowd who value function over form. In which case, they'd be shopping the bolt...
  49. O

    7-seat config waiting room

    My advice for everyone who's waiting on a VIN. Stop bugging your SA's and stop hitting F5. Just let the notification that your car is ready for delivery come as a pleasant surprise and it'll be MUCH LESS stressful!
  50. O

    GME stock and shortsellers (out of main)

    If you're holding GME out of solidarity, then I've nothing to say, but if you're trading on this "evidence", then you're setting yourself up for some serious pain. The sell-ladder spikes could also be explained as people selling out their call options. Delta hedging works in the reverse...

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