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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #27 is available now with topics time-stamped. We discussed: Consolidation in LiDAR manufacturers; Volvo EX90 shipping with LiDAR; FSD Beta Full Release in N.A.; FSD detecting autopilot cheats, Gwen Shotwell directly overseeing SpaceX Starship; and more. You can watch it now on YouTube. We should have it published to podcast networks shortly.

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  1. D

    Reuters: "Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources" [projected 3rd quarter 2023]

    yoke, no stalks, removal of physical steering wheel buttons, all touch buttons. no manual turn signals (AP decides), no button to manually wipe, manual passenger seat controls no overhead lights (screen lights up instead) ventilation orientation fixed no cabin air filter (too many service...
  2. D

    False FSD Strikes?

    I am not on FSDb but I also had a number of false autosteer lockouts (big red hands and wheel penalty) with the 36.X software branch, which is what the current FSDb is on. I have found 40.X to be much better on that matter.
  3. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    Of course there are disengagements--the question is the origin of them. I had a bad experience with 36.X and a good one with 40.X though I did have a false lockout yesterday (with two hands on wheel). The webosphere articles usually seem to be rumors picked up from the forums or Twitter so...
  4. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    Don't believe everything on the internet. I'm not convinced they're reliably detecting weights. I do think they are using the interior camera more, and if it doesn't see what it wants to often enough, the interval and sensitivity of the torque nag changes. There can be false events from...
  5. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    That's not a 'rule' that's a peculiar software feature. The rest are regulations passed by a legislative or delegated legal body. In any case I do keep my hands on the wheel but even still that is not enough because of the insufficient technology (no touch sensor). The nags are in themselves...
  6. D

    Increase in home electric bills

    I bet there are already regular "TOU" plans which should be beneficial for most EV customers.
  7. D

    Increase in home electric bills

    I'm on the EV-TOU2 plan for night time charging. But agree how bad and rapacious SDGE is.
  8. D

    Full Self-Driving Beta V11 (2022.40.5x)

    To the contrary, I think production has been very robust---don't know if increased but possibly. I also think US tax credits Jan 1st and China dictator lockdowns may hurt sales this quarter. I don't think they will have a long term problem.
  9. D

    FSD Beta 10.69

    That's the main deficiency: they need to make semantic maps for lane selection using human fleet driving. They have a potential asset far better than anyone else's but aren't using it.
  10. D

    Every time I get in my model 3 my iPhone gets black screen and needs a reboot

    Is there any other app linking to Tesla? I would do a full uninstall of Tesla app and then re-install and pair.
  11. D

    First Time Owner, Autopilot and FSD feedback

    Tesla hates humans talking on the phone. But if you open service requests in the app, then at that point you can write emails (through the app) to service advisors, but that's usually the only way to get a person, with a specific service request. There is no request for 'my feelings are hurt...
  12. D

    Stupid me, ordered the wrong car. Tesla will not fix it.

    The purpose (from Tesla's point of view) is to get reasonably reliable information about the parts and labor which will be needed for future production. A non-refundable deposit makes it clear. Same vehicle, slightly different options is not a major difference. But changing vehicle type...
  13. D

    2022.40.4.1 preconditioning changes NOT

    Yes, I think that's correct. I believe the internal resistance of a battery is worse and the efficiency of transfer between chemical potential energy (ion separation) and electrical energy (accelerating electrons) is lower with a colder battery. The lowering of range is not entirely due to the...
  14. D

    2022.40.4.1 preconditioning changes NOT

    The fact that the battery was warmer earlier during the drive also meant that it operated more efficiently than if it were cold, so you got more miles out of the kWh available from that effect. My theory is that there is a set point temperature needed for efficient driving and comfortable cabin...
  15. D

    2022.40.4.1 preconditioning changes NOT

    Lowering degradation at the cost of requiring more frequent charging is probably the right choice.
  16. D

    Full Self-Driving Beta V11 (2022.40.5x)

    This says to me that Tesla is otherwise anticipating a revenue miss on vehicles on this quarter. Suddenly the wait times for Model 3 in US are much lower, and people report being allocated cars quicker than anticipated. There is also much more inventory of new vehicles in stock. This could be...
  17. D

    Tesla aims to produce 50K Tesla Semi in 2024, could become one of US’ largest truck makers

    They may be operating the MegaChargers and earning some profit there. They're not only taking truckmaker revenue, but also a bit of petroleum miner & refiner revenue.
  18. D

    36.X and Steering Wheel Weight?

    It can't detect weight it detects friction and torque input. I let autosteer do its thing and lightly touch at the bottom of wheel and slightly impede whatever autosteer wants to do. That is enough to de-nag in my car most of the time.
  19. D

    36.X and Steering Wheel Weight?

    On another thread I reported my experience. In a nutshell nag performance 40.4.1 is great! Very light force needed to de-nag, and works with weights too. It now works as I expected it to work when I bought the car, and I don't mind the lack of touch sensors, small light friction with fingers...
  20. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    Update: .40.4.1 continues to work great with and without weight. I suspect that there wasn't ever actually any intentional weight detection algorithm, and all effects being seen was a side-effect of hacking on the algorithm, at first, tuned poorly and with bugs, and now, tuned well.
  21. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    Well it's only been two days and I haven't made any lengthy trips yet. But de-nagging is easy now. If you update, skip .36 and go to .40.4.1!
  22. D

    40.X and steering Wheel weight?

    I had lots of problems with 2022.36.* , including sudden big red wheel lockouts with no warning, but I find the nag improvements in 2022.40.4.1 to be fantastic, the best I've ever experienced so far, including pre .36 versions. This is only a couple of days of experience, but I noticed it right...
  23. D

    36.X and Steering Wheel Weight?

    I think it's a bit more complicated than that. Here's what I would do as an ex-physicist. There still will be torque fluctuations on the wheel because of bumps transmitting through the front suspension and steering. There will be a torque fluctuation expected given the moment of inertia and...
  24. D

    Anyone on SDG&E's TOU-DR1-Residential Plan

    No, that's the downside of EVTOU5. It's a flat fee added on regardless of consumption, unlike the "minimum bill". And the $16 cannot be offset by solar generation. EVTOU5 is good if you drive a whole bunch (like 2 EV household or heavy commuting) and don't have solar. With solar, I think...
  25. D

    Charge %age level

    The main issue with battery aging is calendar aging, and the higher average state of charge contributes to more aging. But if you charge to 90% and then don't recharge until 20%, your average state of charge will be substantially lower (i.e. better) than if you charged every day to 90% and...
  26. D

    False FSD Strikes?

    Hmm, I started getting the false AP/NOA fails (red hands without any previous beep or notification, and lockout for rest of drive) with 2022.36.5 or .2, but with .6 this seems to have disappeared. Furthermore the regular nag frequency/behavior seems to have gone down as well, it's much more...
  27. D

    Used Tesla 55kwh vs new one 60kwh. Worth the difference in kwh?

    The difference between the 2021 and 2022 might be more than just battery size. In particular, the 2022 at some point received a significantly faster computer, and a lithium-ion accessory battery to replaced the 12V lead-acid one. That's important to me. The 12V lead-acid battery inevitably...
  28. D

    Ford- and Volkswagen-backed Argo AI is shutting down

    I think the bet is the idea that something that scales up and advances will most likely do so from a low cost, high volume base. The discipline needed to integrate electronics and sensors sufficiently inexpensively and train fleets at scale from crowdsourced data will help develop L4 eventually...
  29. D

    Ford- and Volkswagen-backed Argo AI is shutting down

    It does mean that the prospect of significant profitable robotaxi revenue was deemed to be remote, at least through Argo. It's probably the right decision. It's a decision to prioritize acceptably low hardware costs that can be sold on an a customer's vehicle instead of paying for whatever...
  30. D

    Does Tesla have binocular vision?

    I had a friend with one working eye. He said he used the perception of the eye's autofocusing to judge distances. That's something else fixed cameras don't do. But two eyes is better for driving no doubt and I favor high resolution cameras with overlapping fields of view to obtain physical...
  31. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Excellent! Where did you figure that out or learn it? That's the main mystery I had.
  32. D

    Buyers Remorse because of cameras

    The orange tint is because the side cameras were originally designed/intended for autodriving only and not human viewing, unlike the backup cam. They don't have the same color filters as RGB photography cameras (being 2 color not 3), but are more sensitive to overall light intensity as a...
  33. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    Except scientific 55% isn't Tesla displayed 55% because of the lower buffer (i.e. the Teslas can go a bit below zero). I suspect displayed 50% is more like 54% scientific.
  34. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    As I expected. Chemistry is harder than Elon thought, and Panasonic is better than he thought, beating or equalling them isn't easy. Semi needs max range, and Panasonic's NCA is better than the NMC that Tesla is doing with their 4680s and dry process. Panasonic is moving to 4680 form factor...
  35. D

    Why is lane shifting so hard to figure out?

    Most of them, other than the freeway lane change, are all evidence of what I've been saying for months. AP + FSDb needs better routing maps and to use them. Its attempting to use AI/ML models for everything, but ones which have to figure out everything from a second of visual input at a time...
  36. D

    What is considered a "long trip" when considering charging to 100%?

    Why does the timing of the recharging matter for cyclic aging? That strategy (charge up as late as possible) seems like it would be optimal for calendar aging, as the SOC would on average be lower. Is there an opposite effect for cyclic aging? I agree with you though that for most people...
  37. D

    AP/phantom braking.

    Once another automaker finally cracks the software update issue and software maturity, other ADAS systems will be attractive as they can roll out obvious improvements. The challenge on the high end $ could be Apple. They can obviously produce chipsets, update systems, and mature software...
  38. D

    I dare any California person to buy a Mazda-MX30!

    The i3 was much much cheaper in practice as it had subsidized leases. I bought a used i3 ReX with under 11,000 miles and 2 years old for $24k. S is a much larger and different kind of car. Used prices were $70K-80K. And in Europe (and for me) the model S is much too large for streets and...
  39. D

    I dare any California person to buy a Mazda-MX30!

    The 'i' division was thinking far ahead in 2011-2012, but it's very likely internal BMW politics prevented it from thriving. They had the right idea once, that there was going to be a profound transformation and they needed to get ahead of it. There was a serious 'i'-division branding...
  40. D

    I dare any California person to buy a Mazda-MX30!

    I had an i3 before the M3LR. The i3 had the advantages of actually quick acceleration below 60 mph, rear wheel drive, an excellent interior, carbon fiber lightness, and very nice interior materials plus the range extender. BMW sold over 10,000 in USA in 2015. Most were sold in Europe...
  41. D

    Tesla replacing ultrasonic sensors with Tesla Vision

    I think it's possible Australia/rhd is updated later than other areas.
  42. D

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x: Anticipation & Discussion

    That seems like they failed to do the ML fusion in the planner well enough. Maybe then it was too hard-coded and perception too immature, but now they're getting to a better state with perception, with planning the clearly inadequate part given people's reports of failures. Maybe then they...
  43. D

    Wiki FSD Beta v11.x: Anticipation & Discussion

    All of that could be solved with the technology that Tesla/Elon doesn't want to use or pay for: better maps. In particular, instrument where average human drivers go on each lane, and how fast, and make a crowd-sourced consensus target for these. Then use that as a desirable target (not a...
  44. D

    Tesla replacing ultrasonic sensors with Tesla Vision

    I think it's unlikely. There would probably be FSDb releases for the beta testers only which move to single stack on highway and streets before pushing to production AP---and there will be performance regressions on the highway side for a while which would need to be trained/tweaked away. I...
  45. D

    Tesla replacing ultrasonic sensors with Tesla Vision

    Because if the conventional system doesn't have a sufficiently high confidence that there is even a recognized object in a given location it will crash into it, and because the conventional systems at least as in academia (image segmentation & recognition) are essentially all 2-d, looking for...
  46. D

    Tesla Radar Speculation

    The Arbe radar looks awesome for driving but its specs are +/- 15 degrees in elevation and +/- 50 degrees azimuth. That's fine for looking ahead at a road but of course inadequate to replace ultrasonic parking sensors. That elimination is a BS false economy, and isn't remotely justified by...
  47. D

    AP/phantom braking.

    Exactly: elevation undulations and mirages cause the monocular vision system to not be able to extend the road ahead visually. It panics as it has no memory that there weren't cars there before, and they didn't suddenly appear in the hidden parts, and when they do it's a freakout. Why radar...
  48. D

    Fat steering wheel hurts my hands

    I agree that I prefer a less thick wheel as well, as my i3 wheel felt better. Is it possible also that you could adjust the seat and wheel position so that your arm/palm is more comfortable? It may be a combination of location and action. You have to raise the arm more and grip which is less...
  49. D

    Tesla replacing ultrasonic sensors with Tesla Vision

    Going vision only would be great if they had great vision sensors: full 360 degrees coverage, high resolution, stereoscopic front and back. But they don't. Sensors aren't competitive in vision even vs Chinese. XPeng P7: 13 cameras outside, one inside. 12 ultrasonics, 5 millimeter wave radars.
  50. D

    Autopilot on long straight highways

    I've found the issue of needing to look at the screen with the blue shadow or the message to be distracting and lowering safety, and thinking about holding it the right way to prevent the nags also distracts from safety. Yes, it's definitely Tesla being cheap. Every other automaker: An...

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