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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #27 is available now with topics time-stamped. We discussed: Consolidation in LiDAR manufacturers; Volvo EX90 shipping with LiDAR; FSD Beta Full Release in N.A.; FSD detecting autopilot cheats, Gwen Shotwell directly overseeing SpaceX Starship; and more. You can watch it now on YouTube. We should have it published to podcast networks shortly.

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  1. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tomorrow and/or Friday are going to be one hell of a fight. Huge call wall at 200 that I'm sure going to be defended down to the tooth n nail. Maybe there will be something of substance at the Semi event that triggers strong buying volume. If MM's get the feeling that 200 can't be defended, then...
  2. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Gee TSLA capped at 190 and unable to get above it, even with Nasdaq continuing higher........goes and check maximum pain......yeah there ya go.
  3. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Let the walkdown commence. Was capped hard around 190 and now underperforming it's beta. Wonder what they'll get it down to by end of trading today
  4. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It feels nice.....until you look at the one month performance - TSLA down 16%, Nasdaq up 3% 🥴 If you're actively watching the trading, TSLA is definitely being capped in small doses
  5. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Fed is not just going to flip from raising .75 to cutting. That's a completely unrealistic hope so not sure why bother even mentioning. A Fed pivot where they only do .25 increase and then say no more cutting......which is considered a pivot....is what the market has been waiting on. Need...
  6. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The next CPI print comes in a day or two before the next Fed meeting. There's a very high likelihood that CPI print will come in not just cool, but cold. Giving the Fed all it needs to announce a .25 or .5 hike and say they're done raising rates.
  7. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't necessarily think Tesla would lower prices. But my point is that Tesla has pricing power and margin power. If there was material hit to demand from Elon's antics, combined with the effects of the IRA, Tesla could lower prices considerably + the consumer would get their own $7500 credit...
  8. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, it's not. And even if you wanted to say that sample size is large enough (it's not anywhere close to larger enough), the real question to poll is "has your view of Elon must affected your decision to buy a Tesla over another EV?" Because as has always been the case, value, convenience...
  9. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Polled 200 people a day…….lol 200. That’s a joke of a poll and obvious FUD that apparently worked on you 🥴
  10. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually I do think Wall St is aware of Semi day. Two days in a row now TSLA has been capped in its rally and then walked back down. I suspect there's a ton of capping here to prevent a breakout 200 where if broken, would start a larger rally. Again, I think Wall St is VERY aware that they...
  11. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So Troy spreads FUD for weeks on end, doesn't back up his FUD and instead keeps listing a very suspicious source that many people questioned from the start........and then just says "Oh nevermind". Right...... :rolleyes:
  12. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Annnnndddd there goes all of TSLA's relative strength. Sinking like a stone 🥴
  13. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I mean, there's lots of ways for hedge funds to apply downward pressure for a short period of time. While they may not be able to push the market down materially, the real goal to just cap the market and prevent a breakout. The worst-case scenario for all of the hedge funds that built up that...
  14. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nothing I can see. But I'm not surprised. I think Wall St is going to use the next week and half to get itself to a net neutral position before the CPI print comes in,. if not a complete 180 into a bullish position. If you remember, Wall St was hedged in a huge way to the downside with a...
  15. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol two days in a row the macro's kneecap the TSLA rally. Makes it so easy for hedgies to keep a lid on this thing.
  16. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The most important part of that registration number is that given the number of ships from Shanghai this month, I’d say it’s a very likely production is in the low to mid 90k. Something around 92-95k production.
  17. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Besides the fact that I think all of your production estimates are too low, especially Berlin/Austin….you’re not counting the vehicles in transit from Q3. I pointed this out last time you posted some delivery estimates for Q4. You have to include the in transit vehicles from Q3 so you’re...
  18. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Man.......really just be happy TSLA isn't being pummeled today. Hell we should all be celebrating that the stock didn't give way to weakness in the second half of trading today. Most of the time the stock starts off outperforming only to get weaker throughout the day and then either be down as...
  19. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Rather premature to assume we know what Tesla has inside of the Nevada Semi building in regard to production lines. No has seen inside and there's been zero insights into production. For all we know, there's a production line set up and operational to crank out 100 Semi's a month. That would...
  20. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-moves-up-plans-for-giga-berlins-third-shift-after-crews-set-new-single-day-production-record/ Some more encouraging news out of Berlin
  21. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s actually even less useful than that because Tesla makes bins in batches and like you said, we don’t know the logic of how Tesla is shipping out vins and to what locations. About 4 weeks ago, this tracker has Berlin weekly production at near 4000/week which was clearly not the case. It just...
  22. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So much for that pre market trading action lol. What’s even the point of pre market when a stock can go from up 2% to down 1% in the matter of a minute in regular trading
  23. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FSD is the ultimate showcase piece of technology that sells itself.......still a bit hard to believe that wide release is actually happening.
  24. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I know this doesn't count since it's ancedotal evidence in the positive way for Tesla but FSD will probably have a double whammy effect from Q4 to Q1. The deferred revenue recognition in Q4 and then material addition to margins from subscriptions going through the roof (relative to FSD's take...
  25. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm much more interested to see what V11 brings......so hoping it actually goes out to Chuck and other high profile beta testers at some point today.
  26. S

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    That's how I understand it as well. Perfect time to ramp up Megapack production o_O
  27. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks for saving me a post. Yes Apple had a good stretch from 2009 to 2011. Their earnings growth was pretty tame from 2012-2019. Tesla kept their earnings growth % intact far better and longer than Apple did
  28. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hey just to let you know......anecdotal evidence only applies to people that hate Elon 🤷‍♂️
  29. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'll try and dig up the links later this afternoon. It was from one of the Twitter accounts that tracks/has sources at Giga Berlin. There was a bunch of confusion about the 3rd shift and how it related to reaching 5k/week by end of 2022. I would very much be in favor of Tesla prioritizing...
  30. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Last I heard, the goal of getting to 5k/week is not dependent on a third shift.
  31. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Data doesn't matter cause Troy said.... :rolleyes: The interesting part about getting the weekly registration data is that we can see Tesla is in fact handling Q4 like an unwinding of the wave. They must not be very concerned about Dec sales in China because why on earth would they be selling...
  32. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Isn't there two different credits? One for cell production in kWh and then another for battery modules?
  33. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Turns out, Tesla was insanely smart with how they approached 4680 deployment in production. Most people wondered why they would use 4680's for mid-range and not performance. With the IRA in effect, Tesla's gets credits for cell production AND module production. Spreading 4680's across more lower...
  34. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So far at least, the data does not agree with Troy or James's numbers - Berlin production and deliveries tracking for way higher than Troy's numbers. - Shanghai deliveries are WAY ahead of Troy's numbers. His latest was 104k deliveries for China.....Tesla is already at 56k, will be at 70k...
  35. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    More than anything, I find this quarter to be fascinating. As I've mentioned in a few posts over the past weeks/months, I can't find another example out there where a company's Forward P/E is lower than their most recent earnings growth rate........where even by analysts' consensus, the present...
  36. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My overwhelming belief is that Wall St is very aware of how the dynamics change starting Jan 1st for Tesla with the IRA. It's an instant price cut for the Y and some of the 3 variants that will bolster Tesla's US demand while giving Tesla a ton of direct credits for battery module/cell...
  37. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Really no amount of data is to change that TSLA will be targeted day in and day out for the remainder of this quarter until we get P/D numbers. That's the only large enough data input to cause capitulation from those shorting TSLA. Official CPCA November data could come in at 100k (55k local/45...
  38. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well that was a nice little pop of green before we get back to our regularly scheduled program and having the living crap kicked out of the stock on daily basis
  39. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We also get another month of CPI data the day before the next Fed meeting as well.
  40. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think you’re probably looking at more like 270k total production but more like 125-130 exports. I expect Shanghai to export around 30-35k in December to continue unwinding the wave.
  41. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Down another 7% tomorrow 🥴. In reality, November well on its way to being the highest 2nd month local sales deliveries ever. 50-55k local sales and another 45k-50k in exports.
  42. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Except for that fact that Elon already sold shares instead of using the margin loan. The financing was changed. There is no margin loan now. This has been known for a while now
  43. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    15k would more than substantiate solid China demand. It would mean they're selling through practically all of their available inventory in China presently because they're still exporting at least half of production. They would be on track for 45k local deliveries and over 45k in exports.
  44. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Get out of here with actual data questions 🥴 (They usually come out around 4-5 pm Bejing time, so around 1-2 am pacific time tomorrow)
  45. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They would need at least 700 billion to buy Tesla. Probably more like 800-900 billion with the premium. It's so far out of the realm that it's just silly.
  46. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lol now we're on takeover attempts? What in the world has this board come to.........Please name one company out there that could afford to buy Tesla
  47. S

    Elon & Twitter

    For every person you know that cancelled their order, how do you know there isn't a person that placed an order? Do you see why saying "I know 2 people that cancelled is completely pointless?"
  48. S

    Elon & Twitter

    Seriously......Will keep this post on point in relation to Tesla and it's demand. But Twitter worldwide MAU base is a fraction of the population of the United States. It's 1/10th the population of the US........1/10th of JUST the US population. The % of the MAU that are actually active on...
  49. S

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Repeat after me.........When Wall St is positioned a certian way (to the upside or the downside), actual data be damned. Wall St was clearly NOT positioned for a rally.

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