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  1. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Kudos to Gigapress for Elon picking up (actually exceeding) on his "2nd place with a telescope" line.
  2. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    'Twas the night before AI day, and all through the house, not an option was trading, not even by mouse Deep learning was hung by the demos with care, while we hoped for marvels Elon soon would lay bare. Spoiler alert: A contrarian take on Optimus. For economic, rather than technical reasons...
  3. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I would like to nominate this as a post of particular merit, though I don't know the formal process. It's a specific and concrete story of highly variable stock price over a multi-year period, a price that fails to reflect the steady and objective growth in underlying value.
  4. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This. I spend a fair amount of time selecting, investing in, and mentoring startups. Those who receive too much money I call the “victims of philanthropy,” borrowing a phrase from the historian Daniel Boorstin.
  5. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    QED (quod erat demonstrandum) FTFY. Still agree with the sentiment of this impeccable logic.
  6. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think those of us, myself included, that are hopeful about FSD need to watch our own positive biases. Namely, while it could be any of these meanings, the first one ("a sign it's done") doesn't line up with the current state of development, even given a generous extrapolation. Note also that...
  7. strangethingintheland

    FSD Beta 10.13

    https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/853/elon-musk-on-tesla-fsd-beta-10-13-the-3am-oil-is-being-burned-to-get-this-out
  8. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes. 2018 M3, safety score has been 95+ for months. Came in last night at 97. Surprised at just how much it can do. But at a relaxing drive it is not (yet).
  9. strangethingintheland

    10.9 FSD

    I have not seen anything public from Tesla. There is one post by frequent contributor elasalle of one driver’s detailed experience, of 6,000+ miles driven on versions from 10.3 up thru 10.9. #321,857 in perpetual investor thread (sorry, can’t seem to figure out how get the link to the post to...
  10. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree with the point here. But wouldn’t that be 6 orders of magnitude, not 7?
  11. strangethingintheland

    FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)

    this. Andy is spot on. The key is to be "financially viable." Once that occurs, a virtuous cycle begins. Namely, a self-reinforcing effect that makes more resources (including capital, mind share, general brand recognition, user base and other network effects) available to improve on the...
  12. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    let's be realistic. as interesting as it is to talk about I^2*R of high voltage lines (being sure to add that it works for copper OR aluminum), he does not do all that well staying on point in these calls. He obviously delivers for shareholders where it matters, but could stand to improve in...
  13. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Later than many of us were hoping, perhaps unrealistically.
  14. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Don't think this has been posted yet. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/04/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities/ Obviously any ranking like this is inherently controversial, and many on this forum feel Tim Lee has an anti-tesla bias. That said, I think the article's...
  15. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, I love his technical background, but I actually cringe a little bit each time he says that for a small technical reason. The classic S-curve is a solution to the logistic growth DEQ, which, on inspection of its symmetry, starts off exponential, then linear, then turns inverted...
  16. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Latter-day Saint members. And no offense taken:)
  17. strangethingintheland

    Any HW3 upgrades happening in NY/NJ ?

    I requested the upgrade myself a couple of months ago, and they performed it the next week. Springfield service center.
  18. strangethingintheland

    2020.12.5.6: Traffic Light & Stop Sign Control

    Yes. This is within my own neighborhood. At two different T intersections. No stop sign. I infer map-based given that the warning begins 600 ft before and there doesn’t seem to be any way to infer from vision only that far away. repeated on two separate days. Also, in other settings when...
  19. strangethingintheland

    2020.12.5.6: Traffic Light & Stop Sign Control

    Based on my two days of testing, after tap confirming a green light, another tap is requested and required if the light subsequently turns yellow. That second tap is overridden if light subsequently turns red. Then the car must come to a full stop before a tap allows you to proceed. this is...
  20. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree with much of the sentiment in your post. However, I draw a slightly different conclusion. To sum up, markets are not efficient (my uchicago economist son would be horrified to hear me say that) However, it is this very inefficiency that allows one to purchase undervalued stocks, give...
  21. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OT but it is the weekend: as I understand it, interestingly enough, French was never the lingua franca referred to in the phrase's original meaning. Rather, it was a kind of pidgin Italian[1]. This is sometimes confused in part because much later (after lingua franca came to have a generic...
  22. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla has rallied 'too far too fast' This article (below), particularly with its title, seems a companion piece to the above, which feels like wishful thinking: How Tesla's risky bet on making cars in China could pay off to wit, it’s hard to see any serious way in which building a factory in...
  23. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s certainly possible, and a logical argument. I give it a little less weight than I might otherwise, however, because of his comment in the last quarterly earnings call. Namely, that the hire was not as strategic as some of us were assuming, but more of an aqui-hire. YMMV
  24. strangethingintheland

    Supercharger - Boonton, NJ

    Have been checking for it to show up in the Tesla map. Looks like it just posted. Listed in my Tesla app, though curiously it does not list the open/total numbers which are typical.
  25. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There’s still the (unfortunately now) perennial question about when we’ll see the cross-country autonomous drive
  26. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    quarterly stats are in for safety. Tesla Vehicle Safety Report again, I'm not entirely pleased with the statistical meaningfulness here, as it certainly does not yet capture apples-to-apples comparisons (all cars vs. new cars, highway vs. all around driving, etc.). but it's something. and I...
  27. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    very strange. It was up there for a while, but I don't see it either...
  28. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I lament the fact that FUD and combating FUD has come to as prominent place as it has on this thread. But it unfortunately does seem to have become relevant at this point to an investors roundtable. I try to avoid stepping into the debate online because of its often polarized and vitriolic...
  29. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I listened to the interview. The appreciating asset idea doesn't quite seem right. I believe that the cars can become revenue generating assets. But for the car to appreciate in value would imply that you couldn't buy a new Tesla for less, implying that Tesla will be continually raising the...
  30. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just finished first long-distance trip with no confirm lane-changing (2019.8.5) (see here for writeup). My reason for posting on investor thread is simply this observation: Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars because of its progress toward self-driving. I often read criticisms of Tesla's...
  31. strangethingintheland

    Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

    Just completed two four hour drives on 19.8.5, from Northern NJ to Annapolis, MD, and then the return. Overall impression: very solid. A couple of notes: 1) Lane changes are smoother, and I have increased confidence in system's ability to change lanes safely. 2) For first time, I tried...
  32. strangethingintheland

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    what does the timing of a midnight press release say about when to expect the quarterly P&D announcement, and whether it is BTE or not?
  33. strangethingintheland

    2018 EAP people, should we buy FSD for $2000 before next Monday?

    I am going to get it. Purchased EAP with car on 12-20-2018, with the expectation it would be $5k for FSD later. I recognize I might feel quite differently if I was in the October 2016 "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" cohort. But as a recent purchaser, $2K seems more than reasonable to...
  34. strangethingintheland

    Supercharger - Parsippany, NJ

    Just was at rockaway, which was working fine, so thought I’d swing by Parsippany, just to see if lightning struck twice. It didn’t. Covers still on
  35. strangethingintheland

    Supercharger - Rockaway NJ

    Well, it’s definitely up I’m charging now and there are 3 others here as well.
  36. strangethingintheland

    Maxwell batteries in Roadster?

    This video clip might shed some light here. It contains within it a video clip from an investor conference where the a maxwell officer (CFO?) is speaking from about 3:50-9 minute mark. In particular he indicates that they have had a trial underway with a major OEM EV company. Also indicates...
  37. strangethingintheland

    Supercharger - Rockaway NJ

    You mention the wall connector install... Who’d you use for an electrician for the circuit, if I might ask? I’m down in Morristown and could use a recommendation.
  38. strangethingintheland

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I know we're heading to the edge of being OT, but as a one-time physicist, it's funny that you should conjecture about a connection between the second law and GR. The second law in its current formulation doesn't really have anything to do with GR, AFAIK. However, data-starved theorists can't...
  39. strangethingintheland

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Agreed. In addition to the production rates on 3 (and X and S numbers), this is my pick for what will start surprising to the upside during Q3. However, note that we mean not 1 gigawatt per hour (the rate of change of power output), but rather 1 gigawatt-hour ( a unit of measure of energy storage)
  40. strangethingintheland

    Musk Says Germany is ‘Leading Choice’ for European Factory

    the OP wrote 'He said this week on Twitter that Germany is currently the “leading choice” for the European factory.' But that is not what he said. Rather, he said it was "a leading choice," and there is a world of difference. A leading choice is a politically astute statement, as it suggests...
  41. strangethingintheland

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I read the doc. Thanks. There's a full vision there. I give them credit for that. I also think they are showing a decent hand when it comes to autonomous vehicles. But I think you have zeroed right in on the issue. Billions in buy backs? That happens when execs can't think of a better way...
  42. strangethingintheland

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Not that I haven’t been wrong before, mind you, but there’s a sense of inevitability at this point. Starting Q1 2019, I think it all becomes rather boring and predictable. Namely, record revenues quarter after quarter, margins get very healthy and stay that way, Refreshed S and new roadster...
  43. strangethingintheland

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    This. I did spend some time on the VC side as well as a much longer period evaluating potential spinoffs for research universities. Viewed in that light, TSLA in 2012 was like evaluating an early stage startup with great technology, great management team, and early but representative...
  44. strangethingintheland

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    absolutely. he put in plenty of thought. i thought this was obvious from the get go. maybe i'm just too old.
  45. strangethingintheland

    Supercharger - Martinsburg, WV

    Nice musical reference. Would be great to have this working for trips down 81. Thanks for updating us.
  46. strangethingintheland

    Tesla wins fight in Michigan over legislator records.

    maybe it's an unhealthy sense of voyeurism, but i'd sure look forward to seeing that correspondence. I suppose it could be innocuous, but if I had to guess it basically says they need to slip in this new language to keep tesla out of michigan. that would be a smoking gun.

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