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For whom the bell tolls…

Agree it seems like heavy sandbagging, but they did stipulate that the 1.8m number assumes a force majeure event/s that limits max production (after experiencing that for several years in a row in some way or another). Elon maybe couldn’t help himself with revealing the true goal of 2 million...

Just clicked that the very small footprint for planned 4680 production (vs the current cell production) at GigaNevada (again mentioned by Elon during call today) means that they are obviously confident that DBE is going to be ready soon (if not already). The drying ovens for the traditional wet...

Fairly good conference call - with the most important point being right at the start with order demand currently double the production rate.

Y’all keep arguing about what the next vehicle will be…it’s a van…It’s a robotaxi!…it’s a hatchback!…its a smaller sedan!….etc etc. It’s likely that what they are referring to as the next vehicle platform is all those things. A easily adaptable design that will enable all these vehicle types to...

Elon you tease!

Guidance for 2023 can now be considered: 1.8m (official) -> 2m (if no major problems)

Even if they make 50k Cybertruck‘s this year, probably wont contribute much to profits, if at all (will be unprofitable for first couple of quarters likely). Especially versus 1.8m deliveries of other models.

I would wait until the conference call is over before we think about starting a discussion about the stock price not moving.

nowhere as far as I can tell.

In Q4 the dollar was way up vs the year earlier comparison. We did discuss it here on this thread quite a bit.

Its now listed as being in “pilot production” on the chart of vehicle production capacities.

For those wondering - closing price on this major options expiration day: almost $400 exactly (pre-split)

Excellent chart from the article:

Elons vision is the opposite of The Fifth Element, big cities will not have multiple layers of flying taxis filling the sky, but multiple layers of robotaxi tunnels beneath.

I think it’s perfectly reasonable to dismiss Chanos as he is an absolute putz who has been wrong on tesla for the past decade and lost most of his funds value doing it (while he missed out on much more obvious fraud / bankruptcies elsewhere). However your point about TSLA Uber bulls shifting...

Question: do bankrupt auto companies actually lead to permanent loss of jobs & production in most of their factories? or is it usually a temporary situation as other companies swoop in and gobble up the auto plants for cents on the dollar? Just thinking that large ICE auto factories in USA...

I merely posted the morning consult brand survey result for Tesla (without any comments about Elon or his other activities). Seemed like a valid post for the Tesla investor thread.

The YouGov figure is not the net favourability rating. What they call “Popularity rating” is simply the percentage of people in the survey who liked him. It does not subtract the amount of people who disliked him. Subtracting dislikes from likes is the standard definition for a “net...

FYI - Morning Consult latest brand survey result for Tesla:

I would be shocked if the updated US made model 3 doesn’t have the capability to fit a 4680 pack. For shanghai it maybe wouldn’t make sense, as I don’t recall any news about 4680 battery supply being planned for there any time soon. Have to wonder if part of the deal for Tesla to get 100%...

Trailer EVs (ie a trailer with its own battery & motor) seem like a natural evolution of this topic of conversation.

interesting stats from China. In the price segment that Tesla sells in (200-300k) top 20 models all types (including iCE).

Most auto manufacturer stocks selling off in europe & US pre-market, presumably due to Tesla pricing action.

Germany with a 21% price drop on the model Y SR apparently.

Maybe the better comparison is TSMC vs everyone over the last decade. TSMC planned and executed relentless capacity expansion with industry leading technology crushing essentially everybody on both pricing, capacity and quality. (TSMC today is worth $450B vs Intel $125B. Almost every other...

Rob with a good summary: with this banger chart:

The building is already there - so I think the clues that it is for cell manufacturing and/or stationary storage are likely right. It takes years to get permits and construction etc for new buildings, and Tesla is going to need to ramp cell reduction massively in short order.

Astonishing was the word that popped into my head as well. Simply astonishing price cuts. To be fair, the long term projections model I (and many others probably) had for Tesla ASPs I had made for 2023 back in 2019/2020 were about at these new prices anyway - although that assumption was with a...

Had bloo berg TV on in background. My ears perked up when they had a segment on last hour talking about Tesla. First they ragged on how puny Fords EV numbers were vs Tesla, and then they had a short conversation where they were pondering if Elon Musk had toned down his public political statement...

yeah it Is a meme stock for sure and not what I would invest in, but where i come from a 46% move in $10,000 worth of peanuts is the same thing as a 46% move in $10,000 worth of anything else. in others words, a 46% move is a 46% move regardless. And the 61% fall from its high - not sure that...

Although I do agree the previous end of quarter discounting and lack of IRA for the 5 seater Y is likely a drag on current sales, to put things in perspective Tesla produces well over 10k a week from its US factories, so inventory building into the low single digit thousands is not exactly a...

Apple gets most of its revenue from traditionally bad low margin markets (various consumer electronics categories) that usually attract single digit margins. That must be why they are worth “only” $2 Trillion. /s People (like that Shorty McShortyFace) need to learn to separate a company from...

FYI - a negative news story which might be a drag tomorrow. Video footage of Tesla FSD failing miserably (changing lanes and braking in a clear multi lane tunnel) and causing a 9 car nose-to-tail. https://theintercept.com/2023/01/10/tesla-crash-footage-autopilot/

A “….& the Investment World” post for this thread. Last year’s -18.1% S&P500 return was good for the 7th worst annual performance since 1928. Here is a chart of the following 1, 3, 5 & 7 year following performances of the S&P500 following the 10 worst years since 1928: The 1 year...

Know that your one month sacrifice in wait time has contributed to a better quarter end cash balance to be reported in a couple weeks.

IF it was $55k and still “off menu” everyone would still know about it, being ~$20k cheaper than a LR Y(after the IRA tax credit) would have a rather large viral word of mouth impact.

They cant price the 4680 Model Y SR much lower than the LR for the simple reason that they cant make them in anywhere large enough quantities to fulfill orders If they did. Effectively Tesla has to make it as unattractive a price as possible to only move 1.000 cars a week (the current production...

FYI:

I hope more than anything that there is no way Tesla will actually announce any sort of cheaper vehicle on March 1st, that they haven’t even built the factory for yet, meaning it would be a 2024 product. That would be suicidal to current entry level vehicle sales, especially in a year which Elon...

To add: The ”Buffett selling BYD” story in that article is as follows: “The sale lowered Berkshire's holdings in BYD's total issued H-shares to 13.97% on Jan. 3 from 14.06%, a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange showed on Monday.”

Going from “zero covid” to “covid everywhere” Is a very different experience for a country than going from “covid everywhere” to “even more covid everywhere“.

Uhhhh….that is not at all what has happened in china over the last two months. CV has ripped through the population causing a serious temporary drag in economic activity due to both a disrupted-by-CV workforce and much of the population avoiding going out. We should see the situation reverse...

Sales “survey” of China Tesla stores over the weekend:

If I had to say, I would guess the Next generation is based on their 3rd iteration of a production system, rater than the type of model. The original roadster was the gen 1 Tesla car, but they didn’t really have much in the way of a production system for it (lotus built the chassis, much of...

Been mulling on you reply @Ogre. Not sure the theory completely lines up with the reality of what happened at the end of last quarter with Tesla needing to discount vehicles by $7500 to move units. I don’t doubt that there are many people that don’t qualify for the tax credit, but would be...

That’s the most beautiful piece of art I have ever seen. Someone should send a framed print of it to Toyota HQ.

I said something similar a few days back (don’t drop price of the US Y LR by over $11k+ to below $55k just to make it eligible for a credit, instead just drop by $7,500 off current pricing, promoted as a limited time discount) My WAG (WildAssGuess) for where the US lineup ends up at this year...