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  1. N

    2020.24.6.1

    According to this video, you need to be in full screen view to enable side repeater view on model S/X. Tap in the lower left corner of the camera view to go full screen, and then you will see a small down arrow below your camera view. Swipe down there to enable side repeater view.
  2. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting idea. It makes sense! For people who don't buy FSD before the price goes up, Tesla could let them put their car on the network for a ~30% cut instead of 70%. And if these owners want FSD for a single trip, they just ask Tesla network for their own car! Either way, Tesla can get some...
  3. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't believe that Tesla will start making any serious profits from "robocars" soon (maybe in 5 years?). Hardware for enhanced autopilot was all in place in 2016. It took Tesla 2.5 years to get that working at "feature complete" level. But, once they do get it working, I think that a shift...
  4. N

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    You're probably right. First "feature-complete" FSD will probably not have this capability nor the the more "advanced" capabilities on your list, but could still probably handle >95% of driving miles in the US without disengagement. I'm very curious how quickly this goes to 99% and then down the...
  5. N

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    Oh, that makes sense! Thanks for clarifying. You're right that most of these "behavior predictions" could fall under other features. I guess the only thing I'm thinking of that's not included in your list, then, is the ability to navigate constrictions in a two-way road that force alternating...
  6. N

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    Thanks for updating! I have one more suggestion. In their autonomy day, Tesla (Karpathy) said that Tesla's current strategy is not to explicitly recognize turn signals, but instead to holistically recognize "intent to turn". This is because sometimes people don't use the turn signal and...
  7. N

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    @EVNow Great thread! I just rewatched the recent FSD demo video, and I saw 1 unprotected left turn and several unprotected right turns. Before I edit the wiki post, I just wanted to make sure we are all using the same terminology. Do you agree that an unprotected turn means any turn where you...
  8. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tldr; based on price cuts, demand for high trims softened in Q1 and ads could help short-term financials, but Tesla will prob be fine long term either way. To me the price cuts were evidence of lower-than-hoped-for demand. Especially the model S/X cuts but also the model 3 higher trims. I did...
  9. N

    The Information reports new stuff about Autopilot and autonomy

    tldr; Tesla's strategy of using owners as guinea pigs sounds bad, but it comes with substantial benefits for owners as well. Edit: @cartwright beat me to it, making the same point more succinctly. I agree that "testing on customers" sounds bad, but (1) so far this strategy doesn't seem to have...
  10. N

    Neural Networks

    I think that stereoscopic vision can add more precision and/or redundancy to depth in the forward direction, where it is especially critical. Unless a single neural network is combining all camera inputs at once, they are probably adding this stereoscopic depth information after the visual...
  11. N

    Neural Networks

    The rationale for processing two frames in the first level vision neural network is based on much more than just stereoscopic vision. Based on @jimmy_d 's excellent podcast interview, big benefits are improved object recognition (determining what the object is), segmentation (determining which...
  12. N

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks for your post! You made me think more about SG&A growth. Luckily we have a precedent to evaluate the assertion that "there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged..." Somehow, in Q3 2016, Tesla was able to increase deliveries to 24,800 from 14,400 in Q2 2016 with minimal...
  13. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    InsideEVs also estimates 2000 delivered to Canada. If you add in some July/August Canada deliveries, their total Q3 Model 3 delivery estimates are also around 57000-58000!
  14. N

    Estimated Tesla Autopilot miles reaches 1.3 billion

    In addition to the training data discussion, I am very interested in this counter for another reason: safety statistics. tldr; It looks to me like autopilot fatality rate so far is quite good, though it is hard to say exactly how good. From Wikipedia The National Safety Council, using...
  15. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    My take on the lowered 7000/week end of year of year target is this: Tesla has decided not to do another capital raise this year, I think in part at least to show the debt and equity markets that Tesla is sustainable and not a risky investment. They went from 0 to 5000/week in 12 months but...
  16. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    New firmware version out to two cars on http://firmware.teslafi.com/ They skipped version 2018.8 and went right to 2018.10 9982696 I'm very interested to see whether it's got the updated neural network for autopilot. Even number after the first decimal should mean that it's not an early...
  17. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I'm kind of disappointed to see this tweet, because I take it to mean that negotiations to open a Tesla factory in China are not going well...
  18. N

    When Will Tesla Sustainably Produce 5,000 Model 3's Per Week?

    I did not get the impression that they were "super confident" in the conference call about reaching 2000 cars/week in March. Here is a quote from the shareholder letter (emphasis mine): I think that as they ramp they will continue to find new issues at nearly every stage. Ramp will continue to...
  19. N

    FSD video completely fake?

    Thank you, that is extremely useful and interesting. So they've had spotty California HD maps for some (undetermined) time, and they could have potentially used this prior to December 2017 for testing that they did not disclose... Good point. So perhaps we can only conclude with confidence...
  20. N

    FSD video completely fake?

    With regards to disengagement reporting requirements, the most concrete piece of evidence we have is that Tesla DID report disengagements for their FSD video attempts last year. So to me, without new, stronger evidence, I find it most likely that Tesla did not do similar testing on California...
  21. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Wait, why 7%? 5.5% per year for 10 years should get us to $100 billion. 59*1.055^10=100.8 But I don't think we should ignore dilution either. Stock-based compensation for a wide range of employees is a part of Tesla's strategy. And further dilution is possible, although I don't know how likey.
  22. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think that this is a good point. If the market cap reaches $100 billion in 10 years, that is a 70% increase or about 5.5% per year. Adding dilution from stock-based compensation, shareholder returns would be lower than 5% per year. Any stock-based capital raises or acquisitions would further...
  23. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    As long as Tesla is production constrained, it seems clear to me that the best choice for Tesla's mission is to start out by selling higher margin cars if they can do this without sacrficing production speed (at the desired level of quality). If, due to the battery bottleneck, the dual motor...
  24. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Remember that Tesla say they "intend to achieve" 5000 per week by the end of Q2. I think that the base case should assume some further delay in this goal, given the track record of optimistic forecasts on this timescale and the simple fact that no one really knows how long something will take...
  25. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    This is a good point, but it is my understanding that the $10,000 loss per car includes all of the one-time costs (R&D, tooling, etc.) in addition to the incremental costs. So the incremental loss per additional car sold may be much lower or even break-even. Clearly the biggest regulatory...
  26. N

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think we have pretty strong evidence by now that GM cannot currently make a $40k EV at breakeven or better probability. The bolt appears to sell at a ~$10000 loss per vehicle. The first such claims were widely reported in Nov 2016 (e.g. GM stands to lose $9,000 per car on Chevy Bolt) More...
  27. N

    HW2.5 capabilities

    I think that the advantage of grayscale is that with no color filter on most pixels it lets in more light so you can have better low light performance and/or higher frame rates (less motion blur). (Edited for typo)
  28. N

    HW2.5 capabilities

    Nope. I originally assumed it was a joke like you, but the poster doubled down. He/she is either fooled or trolling.
  29. N

    HW2.5 capabilities

    Out of these new videos, I agree that the first looks real and the second looks like a mix of real and fake. The original video that you posted was a fake, though, with the Tesla sounds added to crash footage. I assumed you knew and were trolling/joking. If you were serious and just fooled by...
  30. N

    HW2.5 capabilities

    This video doesn't appear to contain any Teslas. I guess it is meant as a joke, but there was no way for me to tell it was a joke without watching, so I just wasted my time and gave a view to a fake video, encouraging clickbait. Please don't post fake videos here, even if you find them funny...
  31. N

    HW2.5 capabilities

    I see the point that making steering corrections based on a 1ms snapshot could cause erratic steering. But aren't we just talking about the decision to take a snapshot to send back to Tesla? Why would the frequency with which you "roll a die" to see if you should take a snapshot be linked to...
  32. N

    Funny Video: Things I HATE about my TEsla (sarcasm edition)

    I find this guy's whole channel pretty good. He's a professional truck driver and Tesla nerd/owner so he's got a somewhat unique perspective. I'm definitely interested in his take on the Tesla semi. His videos run slightly long, but there's a lot of good honest commentary from both him (obsessed...
  33. N

    Request for Auto-steer feature "manual lane-changing without chime".

    I think that others are misreading this post. The OP is intentionally disengaging to change lanes when the automatic lane change fails. He (I assume from the Avatar) has to do this frequently enough that he is looking for a way to manually change lanes without the constant disengaging and...
  34. N

    Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

    For me, supercharging is the big one. I really want to buy an EV, but relatively convenient and reliable long distance travel is really important to me. If the bolt had supercharger access, I would consider it. For others, looks and speed will still probably be best for the price. Highway range...
  35. N

    Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

    Personally, as an investor I was not discouraged at all by this last rounds of tweets from Elon. All of the comments I have encountered so far to the effect of "Elon's making a big mistake" seem to me be expressing personal disappointment that they'll have to wait longer for their preferred...
  36. N

    Firmware 8.0

    This is very intriguing! But I'm trying to reconcile this with my expectation that the announcement of full autonomy will be a really big event, including an impressive demonstration of the technology (like the original autopilot event).
  37. N

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I also think it's highly likely that the SCTY deal will go through. Both companies seem very committed and big institutional shareholders have sent positive signs. But I think that it is not the share price, but the share conversion ratio of 0.11 TSLA shares per SCTY share that was decided in...
  38. N

    Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

    I think @3s-a-charm is on the right track. Here is my attempt at adding a few more details: Goal: Accelerate the global transition to renewable production and consumption of energy. Strategy: Produce an integrated end-to-end renewable energy system (solar production, battery storage, and...
  39. N

    Possible reservation number hint on My Tesla

    Wow, this finding, the tracker, and the data people submitted are awesome! In case there were any remaining doubts, I subtracted 350,000 from the reservation ID numbers from the Model 3 ID tracker and plotted then vs time in red. Then in black I plotted the total reservation numbers (and their...

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