Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Search results

  1. G

    Order hold automatically removed

    Did you complete your entire profile before getting matched to a VIN? i.e. Delivery Location, Registration, Trade-In, and Payment method?
  2. G

    White/White LR AWD 19" Model Y Chicago Reservation

    This reservation is going to be cancelled on 1/13/2022 if I don't click "I'm ready" and I'm not ready to take delivery yet. The account only has this vehicle reservation, and I have not filled out any details yet, so I can give you the account. Looking to sell this reservation for a difference...
  3. G

    Order hold automatically removed

    Does anyone know what happens if you reject delivery? Will you still keep the price you ordered at or will the price reset?
  4. G

    Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook

    My one comment would be that your ASP for Model 3/Y are likely too high in the out years. The price has to go down to drive volume IMO.
  5. G

    FSD beta on Laurel or Coldwater Canyon?

    I think it's ok to mispredict the intersection when you're a ways back, once you get closer you would hope that no misprediction would occur. There's no penalty for mispredicting it early on.
  6. G

    FSD beta on Laurel or Coldwater Canyon?

    Good Eye. I think this is also a cause of phantom breaking in Autopilot, non-FSD. Images can spuriously give you the wrong impression, which is why the video training likely helps a great deal.
  7. G

    Waymo Says Its Self-Driving Tech Is More Advanced Than Tesla FSD, Others

    It's not good enough for Waymo to be first. Hypothetically, if Waymo starts scaling out their product today with their current costs, I'm not sure they could even generate a profit. I estimate the current Waymo vehicles cost something like ~150k and they are not electric. It's about who is the...
  8. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    My reasoning is that although the visualization detects the parked cars correctly, the car still plans a path that would crash into a parked vehicle, therefore the planner does not explicitly draw a path through free space using a "software 1.0" planner. One possible way this could happen is if...
  9. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    Brandon complains about how the car attempts to drive into parked car lanes while going straight in traffic. This says to me that Tesla is already starting to do end-to-end learning for the planner, and that the planner currently doesn't distinguish between parked cars and moving cars which is...
  10. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    I’ve seen this assertion made many times without any obvious proof. Although it definitely is a possibility, Elon has also once said that it’s true “no matter how you slice and dice it” meaning it’s still safer when normalizing for all the obvious variables. Also, if you read the fine print...
  11. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    Interesting to see that there are map inputs into the NN. Thanks. Would love to see what happens when the NN and the map disagree...
  12. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    I sympathize with you, he did draw conclusions about what you were saying that you were not necessarily making explicitly. However, I think he's factoring in the Twitter context to what you're saying. You linked to an analysis by a TSLAQ member doing an analysis that 'proved' HD maps were in...
  13. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Investors looking for yield will definitely be buying these robotaxis at those prices and drive the yield down (i.e. prices up). They'll make it all back and then some in a world where interest rates are near zero. People aren't registering what it means to have a truly driverless FSD. There are...
  14. G

    Autonomous Car Progress

    This is to be expected. This software works everywhere without HD maps. It's going to have a much higher intervention rate at first. I actually think that makes it safer, because people will be on constant alert if it requires interventions that frequently. IMO we won't reach the high 9's level...
  15. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    Rumor is Smart Summon is now amazing. Source: SatinGreyTesla on reddit
  16. G

    FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

    It's not just labeling efficiency, that's only part of it. The network is likely using modern neural net architectures like Transformers. I would also bet that they're running a depth-mapping network as well. This sets the stage for Dojo to finish the job and achieve all the 9's.
  17. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As they get higher take rates on FSD, they can reduce the margin necessary on the hardware alone. The current 20% margin you're estimating includes ~25% FSD take rate. Wouldn't be surprised to see them try to sell 3 SR+ for under 30k once take rates are high enough on FSD. I also believe the 25k...
  18. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure if this has been posted: ‎Winning In Asia: A ZoZo Go Podcast: Kurt Kelty, VP, Automotive at Sila Nanotechnologies on coming breakthroughs in EV batteries. on Apple Podcasts Kurt Kelty is a very interesting interview guest since he was a major player at Tesla on the battery side for a...
  19. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the difficulty for valuing Tesla was it's profitability. The bulls always believed that Tesla would be profitable and hence the valuation was way too low for a company with CAGR 50%. The switch over to profitability caused a rush of institutionals. It's probably quite rare that a high...
  20. G

    The Resource Angle

    Funny that you mention it. As I was attempting to research Tesla's foray into lithium mining, I found myself thinking the same thing. I watched quite a few YouTube videos and I often got a bit of a slick/slimy impression from the heads of some of these junior miner/resource companies.
  21. G

    The Resource Angle

    It seems the entire lithium community believes that Elon's attempts at mining are mostly and mostly a bargaining tactic. It's really hard to say if that's true. It doesn't seem in character for Tesla/Elon. I did some research and found Ryan Melsert's linkedin bio and some youtube videos, he...
  22. G

    Tesla Battery Investor Day

    There are a few possible interpretations, I see no reason to conclude that it is for the same kWh. The Y-axis is the relative amount of time to charge the cell, with the baseline being a 2170. If they meant "time to fully charge a cell", then my interpretation would be correct. If they meant...
  23. G

    Tesla Battery Investor Day

    I read this chart as "it takes about the same amount of time to charge a 2170 vs a 4680." But remember, a 4680 has 5x the energy. This would imply that the cars would charge 5x as fast. If it takes a Model 3 30 minutes to get a full charge on a V3 supercharger, the new time would be 6 minutes!
  24. G

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    One other element about the Model Y delivery timelines is that timelines are another element that Tesla can use to shape demand without price concessions. Setting a long delivery timeline can discourage Q3 buyers from ordering a Y if they need immediate delivery and send that demand to the 3...
  25. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Reading this article Tesla secret project Palladium: new Model S and Model X are coming Combined with Elon's comments about the Y in Germany having a new chassis, I imagine that the new Model S/X are serving as a proving ground for a new Cell to Chassis system. They could be casting the...
  26. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    680kW charging would be epic! The new battery architecture should significantly reduce internal resistance, which is a function of state of charge. I think we should see a much better taper profile in the roadrunner packs.
  27. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If they begin casting S/X, another benefit is that it is only really a die change, the same overall machine can still be used. This is to say some of the capex for the casting machines can be shared with the high volume lines.
  28. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My research into this topic was that the process, TSMC's InFo_SoW is a method of using a wafer as a motherboard if you will. The 7nm chips would be fabbed as usual but then somehow attached to a 14nm wafer that has the appropriate circuit layout. The 14nm wafer replaces the motherboard, not the...
  29. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To further tie in one more element, this article mentions another GigaPress, which everyone assumes is for Model Y: Tesla is deploying a second Giga Press machine in (or actually out of) Fremont factory - Electrek Could it be that this is for S/X instead? Are two GigaPresses needed for Tesla...
  30. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks for this. Unclear which motherboard they currently provide, but if its the MCU board... I've been speculating that Tesla will combine the MCU and Autopilot boards to reduce costs. They already have to talk to each other to perform sentry mode. If the motherboard is also getting upgraded...
  31. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank You, I had the two users confused.
  32. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I enjoy following TSLAQ because many of its members are professionals that have access to data that retail does not. Occasionally, they will post some of this data but interpret it incorrectly because they are not tuned into what Tesla is working on as the bulls are. Ironically, they often boost...
  33. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I would say that Tesla purposely leaked this photo. The photo confirms only form factor which keeps things still extremely ambiguous but builds hype. This is why Elon tends to post stuff on twitter prior to a reveal in drips and drabs, and even Lucid used the same strategy. Much like an...
  34. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    White paper out by Gene Berdichevsky and Gleb Yushin, founders of Sila Nano. Gene worked on the original Tesla Roadster battery pack. Kurt Kelty works at Sila, and I believe JB Straubel at one point was either an advisor or on the board. Very interesting if you want to nerd out on batteries and...
  35. G

    Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

    Do you know exactly how the approval process goes? I actually don't know myself and you seem more confident about how it would go. If the marginal number of miles needed to get approval is low, I would be surprised and not supported by statistical rigor. If you want to make statistical...
  36. G

    Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

    Which regulators have approved driverless robotaxis? Chandler, Arizona? How many miles did Waymo have to drive in Chandler before getting approval? Multiply that by every city in the United States/World before approval is achieved. According to this link: How Many Cities Are In The Us. There...
  37. G

    Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

    L5 does not currently exist, so it is false to say that LIDAR is a requirement. If anything, LIDAR suffers from a chicken and egg problem. Currently there are no major applications that I can see of for LIDAR that will drive its costs down the learning curve. In order for the price to be driven...
  38. G

    HW4 computer mass production in Q4 2021

    The 25 chips per wafer also threw me off, at first I thought it must certainly be Dojo or even maybe SpaceX phased array antenna chips. I could be totally wrong, but the other thing that would be strange about this chip being used for Dojo is that the chip is going into mass production. Why...
  39. G

    convince me that elon is an engineer, at heart

    Answering the OPs question forms the basis of investing in Tesla. Elon claims and accomplished things most find outlandish. But before many of the accomplishments, he just made outlandish claims. I had to dig quite a bit to answer the OPs question to satisfy myself before investing. Elon is a...
  40. G

    HW4 computer mass production in Q4 2021

    From my own research, I believe this is HW4. InFO_SoW (Integrated Fan Out System on Wafer) from TSMC is a packaging system, the 7nm chips will still be standard sizes but packaged together on wafers which are likely 16nm/some high yield process. TSMC to Build Supercomputing AI Chips, Ramps...
  41. G

    Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

    " From my understanding, the rewrite and v11 should be out around the same time. I’m told v11 will be out about a month after the rewrite is complete. Literally don’t take this as any bit fact, but I have a hunch we may see v11 as early as late September. From my understanding v11 is running...
  42. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why does it need to be in the thousands of Wh/kg? Are you doing jet engine gravimetric energy density * combustion efficiency of jet engine? If the batteries served structural purposes in the airframe, it seems like the battery energy density doesn't need to be in the thousands but I have no...
  43. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ultimately you’re right that we don’t have exact numbers since we’re not Tesla/Panasonic, but I would wager that Munro is not far off. Also, while in absolute terms we may not know Tesla’s costs, the delta in costs here is relevant and is likely accurate.
  44. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting Munro chat. He mentions that Model 3 battery pack was 135$/kWh while Model Y is 110$/kWh. This must mean that the roadrunner batteries must be significantly cheaper than 100/kWh in my opinion. Mentioned at 1:11:00 Also mentions that Munro does work on mining equipment and that he’s...
  45. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What’s amazing about TSLA is Elon basically tells us what is going to happen in advance, all you have to do is listen to him and you’ll earn an outstanding return. Last May he was dropping hints about production numbers. Anyone following the story should’ve gone damn near all in at that point.
  46. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Imagine if Elon succeeds in all his ventures: 1. Transitioned Earth to sustainable energy 2. Created Autonomous cars, saving millions of lives remaking worldwide transportation 3. Rebuilt the internet in space and connected everyone on Earth 4. Colonized Mars 5. Solved Traffic with tunnels 6...
  47. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon Musk Poems generated by GPT3. Elon Musk By Dr. Seuss (GPT-3) the singularity is near, lol
  48. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, and relative to 2/20 compensation for hedge fund managers, paying Musk a relatively paltry 0/10 to 10x our money is a fantastic deal.
  49. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have no idea if they are still in as of today. If I had to guess, I would say a significant portion of that position has been offloaded near the highs of 900+. The way a quant model works as that there is a short term target price, let's say Rentech made a forecast that said in 3 weeks from...
  50. G

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As far as I know Rentech does not do options market making. The other large 'hedge fund' that does what you describe is Susquehanna, but it is otherwise known as 'delta hedging'. They are arbitraging sold call options against the stock, by making a market in the options market and at a favorable...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top