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  1. S

    Catalysts, Due Diligence, and Market Timing

    The way something looks in a photo depends on many things, like the lens and its settings, the distance from the lens to the subject, and more. Look at pics on real estate web sites - rooms and backyards look huge, because they use wide angle lenses. Telephoto lenses make things look smaller and...
  2. S

    Catalysts, Due Diligence, and Market Timing

    New Tesla Model X in Tesla Hangar at Hawthorne Airport https://twitter.com/TeslaNY/status/413276099779776512/photo/1
  3. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    If I wanted to buy a MS, I would buy it. Now when the air suspension does not lower the car at HWY speeds, a MS has roughly the same chances of catching a trailer hitch as an average car. Before this firmware update it had much more chances - many cars could have passed over that hitch without...
  4. S

    Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

    @richkae, I read your post and somewhat agree with you. However you base your argument on questioning the official stats, but we don't have any other stats. My point is that we should look more optimistically into the near future regardless of this. I strongly believe that from now on MS has...
  5. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    This short attack may also mean that they sense the bottom and fear that the stock will not go any lower, so they desperately try to manipulate us. I'm not selling.
  6. S

    Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

    I think that luvb2b's calculations are fundamentally wrong, because he ignores the fact that 2 fires happened after running over a metal object that can pierce the car's underbelly. One fire happened outside of US and should be excluded from the calculations, because luvb2b compares these fires...
  7. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I don't want to draw any conclusions, but "moshennik" means "fraudster" or "con artist" in Russian (мошенник)
  8. S

    Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

    @luvb, With all respect, your predictions are baseless, because MS caught fire under specific circumstances. These circumstances were changed by the new firmware.
  9. S

    Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

    My guess is that by increasing the clearance in the firmware, Tesla greatly reduced the probability of a fire. Now you need to run over a larger, but similarly shaped object, to pierce the battery. In the second fire, there was another car in front of the Model S. That car went over the...
  10. S

    Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

    I see it the same way: 0.000882 fires/car-year (ICE) is 4 times greater than 0.000226 fires/car-year (MS). What am I missing?
  11. S

    Tesla not planning a Model S recall: CNBC

    Exactly my feeling - you are reading my mind. It took them a few days to fix that embarrassing lease calculator, so I have some hope that they will also fix this situation. Regarding the battery punctures I think that they do not have a solution yet, so they are trying to buy some time. But...
  12. S

    Tesla not planning a Model S recall: CNBC

    I have exactly the same feeling. For some reason I think that Tesla engineers are searching for a solution (effective but not overly expensive). They don't have one yet. As soon as they find one, they will start making cars with the modified underbelly. If another similar fire happens after...
  13. S

    Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

    I'm just curious, what do you mean by errors? I understand that if we talk about statistics based on some measurements, there may be errors in measurements (sensor error, a stray particle flying by and so on). In this case there either was a fire or not - no errors, right?
  14. S

    What other tech stock to consider?

    When will TWTR be available for retail investors? Any guru cares to share his thoughts on TWTR with noobs like me?
  15. S

    TSLA convertible notes and warrants

    So do you think that the liquidity of these note will always be very good, and the note holder will never have any problem selling them? So when Curt writes "In the meantime the liquidity for the notes could dry up. " this is just a fictional assumption? He also wrote "If the share price were...
  16. S

    TSLA convertible notes and warrants

    If conversion criteria is met, nobody takes the downside protection off the notes, unless the notes holder converts the notes and keeps the stock. I think that the only reason to convert the notes early would be to sell the stock immediately. In this case the note holder gets the cash, and the...
  17. S

    NYU professor on TSLA valuation

    Maybe you are right, what do I know... Maybe he likes teaching how to make money by trading more than making money by trading... This is probably true for all full-time teachers - they probably like teaching more than doing the very thing that they teach how to do :-)
  18. S

    NYU professor on TSLA valuation

    @Causalien I know that you are right. But for some reason I was unlucky - almost all my university teachers were of the kind "those who cannot do, teach". There were a couple of teachers that were brilliant pros in their fields, but they had to teach us basic things, which was very boring...
  19. S

    NYU professor on TSLA valuation

    Teaching others how to do this is fulfilling, right? :-) Ones who cannot do, teach. Ones who cannot teach how to do, teach the future teachers :-)
  20. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    Thanks, DaveT! This cleared my head a lot! :-)
  21. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    Sure TSLA is very overpriced if you base your valuation on the current production. But it's a cult stock. So the current production does not matter. The only thing that matters is a shining growth image. If this image gets cloudy, the stock drops. If it shines, the stock keeps going up and it at...
  22. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    Since TSLA is in its growing stage, it deserves a much higher multiplier then the old car companies, so it needs much less then 500k cars to justify its current market cap. Today's dip is probably due to people questioning the company's growth. The good news is that the growth is supply...
  23. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    This piece: Can Tesla Save This American Icon? (AA, TSLA) mentions that Tesla makes 800 cars a week. When Elon said that a few small suppliers cannot make more parts than they are currently making, maybe he meant 800 cars a week or even more. If 800/week is correct, and more sources repeat it...
  24. S

    Investors Who Have Never Driven The Model S

    I have not, and I don't plan to drive it, because I'll never buy it. - I need something that can seat 8 or more people. - I'm crazy about AWD/4WD. I live in Canada, and it snows here, you know... - It's too expensive. After the birth of our 5th child, we will not have any free seat in our...
  25. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    You can only say that you've made this money when/if you sell the stock. :-)
  26. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    Yeah, right, let's burn all those carbohydrates that were buried for millions of years, and look what happens to the atmosphere. I think that governments in all countries are quickly realizing that there must be draconian measures for reducing CO2 output. I believe that if oil prices go down a...
  27. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    He is a quintessence of a troll. Why is he not banned yet?
  28. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    Is the "copper plated" technology proprietary and patented by SPWR? Is it possible that the efficiency of the commodity pannels will increase the same 23% by 2015? If yes, the situation will be the same as today. If/When SPWR panels beat the commodity panels, SCTY can just switch to SPWR...
  29. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    Right, but they should be banned. This forum is moderated, so why not use the moderation for the benefits of 'not trolls'?
  30. S

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    I concur. Could the moderator ban this person? His posts are mostly misinformation and fud. He clearly has an agenda and his posts have no value to the forum readers.
  31. S

    Presidential power (or the lack of it) over energy policy

    If that was a Putin's speech, then yes, green light all over Russia. In the US it's different. But yes, we all hope that this will make it a little easier for Tesla to fight the dealerships in different states.
  32. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    No carbon tax yet? Just carrots, same as in the past, and no sticks? Bad...
  33. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    So if Sunpower is so much better "without a doubt", why on Earth did WalMart and the US Army go with SolarCity?
  34. S

    Manufacturing Capacity

    It looks like they run the final assembly and something else in 2 shifts, and the rest in 1 shift. So they produce 1 shift worth of cars, despite running some stations in 2 shifts, because those slow stations need 2 shifts to work through the 1 shift volume. Their goal is to speed up those slow...
  35. S

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    I wonder if the Obama's Climate Plan (Tuesday 1:35PM Eastern at whitehouse.gov/live) will boost SCTY stock. Will he mention carbon tax? Would be great.
  36. S

    June 20th Speculation

    What if the swap station costs $250k, and the battery costs $15k, and they need 10 extra batteries to have time to charge them in time for the next swap? That would come $250k + $150k per 50 cars = $8k extra investment per a $80k = 10%. Would you approve that? Yes, if there's a supercharger in...
  37. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I think there's a lot of positive upside in the battery swap option. Initially I only thought about the battery swap in the connection with the superchargers. Out of cities, in the middle of nowhere, only for long distance travels. Today someone mentioned taxies. I recall that some time ago...
  38. S

    June 20th Speculation

    I don't think that it would cost too much. It would be possible for Tesla to build a "black box" swapping station with say 12 batteries inside, that will fit under a single parking spot. Just dig a not very large hole under one parking spot, place the "black box" there, connect it to the grid...
  39. S

    June 20th Speculation

    I think the swapping will be done at the supercharger stations. Eventually every supercharger station will have 4 charging ports + 1 swap station. If you look at the pic of the 4-port supercharger station with an obelisk, there's one empty space to the right of the first charger. The swapping...
  40. S

    Dear Elon: How about a capital raise to pay down the DOE loan?

    I also think that Elon will exercise his new options, and use the proceeds to buy the debt and new shares. So this is like he pays $50m and the shorts pay the rest, and Tesla pays down the DOE loan. So, when Elon said that HE will pay off the loan himself, he was not quite correct. The shorts...
  41. S

    ShipS mentioned during cc

    Different destinations? For example Norway and Japan or something... cannot go on the same ship, even if it's just 2 cars :-)
  42. S

    Cost to Borrow Tesla Shares for Shorting Hits 85%

    Is that data as of 5/02/2013 6pm? It's the "Due date" from the explanation info: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortIntPubSch It looks like the "due date" is the latest date when all FINRA member firms are required to file their reports about their short positions. So for the May...
  43. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I'm not experienced in stocks at all. Today I've decided to sell TSLA for around 73, but the shares were stuck between 70 and 71 for a long time (12 - 1pm). So I've decided to sell just 200 shares at 71. And immediately the price moved up! Then it stuck at 72 for 5 minutes. I sold another 200...
  44. S

    Model S can be recharged faster than filling a gas tank.

    @TD1: Thanks for the link! Regarding water, I get it, mentioned in patent 20120041623. I was lazy to read through all the patents. What does it mean "charging is much harder" that I read in any info about metal-air batteries? Harder means longer or what? Again, Elon said "recharge", not...
  45. S

    Model S can be recharged faster than filling a gas tank.

    elonmusk twited: There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank. How come? His next twit: Don't forget the mystery announcement. Part 5 of the trilogy. It's interesting that when I thought about the mystery announcement I came...
  46. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    @LiteWait: Yes, that's a lot of money, and Musk will not say that now. I really think that Tesla will be a serious threat to premium car manufactures pretty soon. Tesla will become a high-value premium brand, like Apple. I think that the mood will be " premium car = electric super-car (Tesla)...
  47. S

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I think that Tesla will be sold. I just thought about this yesterday. Elon's true passion is SpaceX - die on Mars and stuff. It's like his life mission. I think that he will sell Tesla, like he sold his previous companies. He will sell it to finance SpaceX. When and under what conditions...

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