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  1. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ve been paying attention since 2012, thanks. I appreciate the opinion. I don’t appreciate the snarkiness.
  2. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wait times for all 3 Tesla vehicles down to 2-4 weeks. That’s a big change from just a few weeks ago....IIRC, the 3 was at 6-8 weeks. There are quite a few new inventory vehicles available as well. Of course there are several possible explanations, however I’m preparing myself for...
  3. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. My hunch is that the shorts smell blood in the water and will return, putting pressure on the SP over the next few weeks. Coronavirus doesn’t help the bull case in the short term either. Not an advice
  4. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Customer deposits holding steady in the $700M range. That’s shocking. I understand why they don’t release # of deposits anymore, but boy I wish they still did. Most deposits are $100 when they used to be $5,000
  5. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That’s it, I’m out. I will still hold my retirement TSLA as I can’t touch that for 10 years (at least), and Tesla will be absolutely massive by then. But sold all my stock and calls outside of that. My reason is that Elon always has to do things the hard way. You close half of your galleries...
  6. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I flew F/A-18’s for a whole bunch of years with a HUD. HUDs are great in an airplane. I drove a car with a HUD. Annoying as heck.
  7. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I rated this as funny because I know where your username is from. Awesome.
  8. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That way he can say he was correct no matter which way the SP ends up. Brilliant. The difference between analysts and investors is that analysts have no scratch in the game. Much like the reporter and the soldier, one comments on the fight and the other is in the fight. As investors, we have...
  9. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My call: Tesla news is massive new energy storage contract. Will blow away Hornsdale.
  10. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also odd that there’s no announcement re: how to watch the event. Nothing on Tesla’s investor page or Tesla twitter account.
  11. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree...the whole iX3 name is confusing as heck. Electric? Hybrid? Do I plug it in, or not? Gas, or Diesel?
  12. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Model 3 is a flash in the pan, won’t make $ on SR version, no one will want the LR/P versions after initial sales to crazy treehuggers S/X sales will slow when tax credits expire
  13. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another possible sign of the increase in 3 production is that in the US, the website says Feb as delivery date if you order any configuration of Model 3. If they were in fact building just for OUS, that date would be further out. IMHO
  14. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Am I the only one on the planet who thinks PewDiePie is inane? I find him terribly unfunny.
  15. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yep, until recently I used P/S as my primary tool for evaluating TSLA’s valuation. Now I’ve switched to operating free cash flow, after waiting 38 years for Tesla to have FCF.
  16. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s just so effing funny to hear ‘TSLA missed analyst consensus on earnings’. Name one analyst who last year predicted that Tesla would not need to raise cash in 2018 and beyond to fund growth. Name one analyst who last year predicted TSLA would be profitable in both Q3 and Q4. Name one analyst...
  17. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do you think they are storing up their ZEV credits and minimized payables expansion to use as ammo to boost Q1 to be profitable? Seems that way to me
  18. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’d be more inclined to pay attention to what UBS says if they started their analysis with, “Okay, we’ve been wrong about every single thing re: TSLA in the past. Like, sorry for that. BUT, here’s what we are thinking now and why it’s different this time....’
  19. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Al, I’m loaded up. The SP has fallen quite a bit, and IMO it’s largely due to the uncertainty around the S. They’re going to let us know during the CC the reasoning behind discontinuing the 75, which is surely not lack of demand. We’ll know in a week, but I feel good about it. NOT an advise
  20. Hogfighter

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    True....not to mention that aluminum in the S is more expensive than the steel in the 3, automated lines on the 3, etc.
  21. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Otherwise known as, ‘Fact Checking Posts’
  22. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Regarding possible future announcements, all I’ll speculate is that Tesla has made some pretty incredible innovations on a shoestring budget. Imagine what they’ll come up with now that they actually have cash flow!
  23. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ll endorse them. After my bad accident (referenced by me a month ago), USAA were complete heroes. I can’t imagine any other insurance carrier going half as far as they did. They aren’t the cheapest, but they’re the best when you need them...which is why we have insurance in the first place.
  24. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Aaannd covered. Okay you can rise back up again
  25. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I bought a put, waiting for the MMD. Thereby I have negated whatever force controls the MMD.
  26. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Could Tesla Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? Could Tesla Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? These comparisons are precisely why TSLA is such a controversial stock. Why are they comparing stalwart companies in a declining industry (ICE) with a growth stock with few competitors? If Tesla grows to...
  27. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon and JB were working on developing an electric car. AC Propulsion connected them with Marc and Martin. Then they participated in the A funding round. Before the A round, Tesla Motors was basically an excel spreadsheet. Sounds like founders to me. (IIRC)
  28. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This thread has become nearly unusable. I know that having two threads was more work for the mods, but at least limiting the conversation and having boundaries is better than 30 pages of randomness every day. Please bring back the market action thread!
  29. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Brexit has the possibility of bringing on a worldwide recession.
  30. Hogfighter

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m quite bullish on TSLA right now and think that the ER will be quite good. Regarding macros, I’m worried about Trump and Brexit, but not worried about interest rates or the economy.
  31. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    We closed at the end of last year at 311. We were smack dab in the middle of production hell, producing a trickle of 3’s, burning through cash like my second wife. Today, 3’s are flying off the line, profitably. Massive free cash flow. No real competition on the horizon. FSD much closer to...
  32. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Whoa....Santa came late this year
  33. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Ever since I started investing in TSLA (2012), I’ve had 5 big worries: - A major recall of the S would bankrupt the company (didn’t happen) - The X would be too complicated, become a maintenance nightmare and bankrupt the company (didn’t happen) - The 3 would be some weirdmobile, resulting in...
  34. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    So the news of the day is that Tesla is cutting the price of the 3 in China, presumably due to lack of demand, and the SP is down premarket. For a car that’s not even available yet.
  35. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I learned a valuable lesson during that time: Things happen. What matters is how you choose to react to those events. And it’s a conscious choice. That lesson has literally made me millions from TSLA. I went from certain bankruptcy to a life, well, beyond any right I have to. And also why I’m...
  36. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I was on the Midway when she was in Japan! And trust me, us fighter jocks had it easy compared to the Marines.....
  37. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    To be more precise: Hit me, then ran over my face, then stopped the car, took a look at me, decided he had to kill me as now I could identify him (illegal immigrant, didn’t want to get shipped home....his words later on), then got back in the car, ran over me again in reverse, then dragged me...
  38. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I am, and my appetite for adventure is severely reduced! And I sure don’t bike ride anymore....
  39. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I’ve had to eject from a fighter jet, flew 40 combat missions off of aircraft carriers, and got ran over by a car (twice) resulting in 20 broken bones, both lungs collapsed and a third of my skin gone. This ain’t nothing:)
  40. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I have quite a bit of options, and yea, it’s ugly. But mine don’t expire til June, so there’s time.
  41. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Seriously don’t worry about demand. Worry about Brexit, interest rates, the economy, and the crazy Orange One. But not demand
  42. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    So we all changed our avatars, and look what happened. I’m changing mine back
  43. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    If you leave the door slightly ajar, shut-but-not-all-the-way-shut, everything stays on. True for both S and 3....don’t know about the X
  44. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    My bet is that most owners don’t frequent these forums, or have any way of knowing what the heck they’re talking about.
  45. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    HNI is a five and climbing
  46. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I’m not in the ‘lack of demand’ camp for end-of-year. I think they’re doing what they did last quarter....trying to get everything out the door. Next quarter is all about Europe, but you’ll see the shorts point to fewer cars delivered in the US as slowing demand.
  47. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Everyone is talking like a bear market is imminent. My experience is that’s not when most bear markets occur....they occur when everyone is giddy. P/E ratios aren’t ridiculous, banks aren’t making crazy loans to people who can’t pay them back, and anyone who invested in bitcoin deserves whatever...
  48. Hogfighter

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    It’s a surf competition. Massive waves Massive waves push possible start to Mavericks surf contest

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