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  1. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some misinformation just won’t die. There is no requirement for four consecutive quarters of profit. We’ve been over this literally a hundred times on this very thread. Might be more, I sometimes skip ahead.;) As for whether or not next quarter will be profitable? Wall Street certainly seem to...
  2. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just because so many people here seem to think the wording of Tesla's stock split announcement is unusual, I looked up a few other stock split announcements. I found that Tesla's announcement looks very similar to every other such announcement. For example, here is Netflix from 2015: LOS GATOS...
  3. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not to pick on you in particular, but why do people keep posting (stale) news here over and over? If you see some news that might be worth sharing, I suggest the following: 1. Check how old the news is (in this case you can tell from the blurb you posted). If it’s more than a few minutes old it...
  4. V

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    I wanted to buy OTM options to increase my leverage, but they're just so expensive right now. So instead I'm selling options, in a mostly delta neutral way. Surely the IV must go down one of these days. Until it does, I'm okay as long as the stock price doesn't go below 100 or so or shoot up...
  5. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Okay, that’s it. This is completely ridiculous. As soon as the market opens I’m buying options.
  6. V

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    That’s an interesting argument. But ultimately I think you do have to look at the ratio spread as one trade. (And indeed, consider your whole portfolio when trading.) I could make the same argument about a regular vertical spread, that you should think of it as two separate trades as well, and...
  7. V

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    Thanks. Early exercise is a risk, I guess, and as always one should think about taxes. Now try to talk me out of doing this.
  8. V

    Advanced TSLA Options Trading

    I’m thinking about doing the following: For the June 2022 options it looks like one 1200 call is about the same price as two 1800 calls. So I could buy one 1200 call and sell two 1800 calls, for no money down. If, by June 2022 we’re below 1200 I simply break even. If we’re at 1800 I make 60K...
  9. V

    Anyone considering delaying their purchase due to Market Downturn related to Corona virus?

    Fun fact: Tesla sells most of their cars in the third month of every quarter, so January sales are down compared to December sales everywhere. Every year. Same with April, July and October sales. Another fun fact: In the second month of every quarter of every year there are articles about how...
  10. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If transferring the margin loan turns out to be difficult, you could do the following: 1. Transfer half your shares to IB; 2. Get a margin loan with IB and use it to pay off the old margin loan; 3. Transfer the other half of your shares.
  11. V

    Navigate On Autopilot in Australia

    I tried NOA between Canberra and Sydney recently. I think there’s something wrong with the map data, because Tessie would frequently insist on changing to the right lane to follow the route (with two lanes both continuing straight for a very long time). Then, a few seconds later, she would...
  12. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I gave you a disagree because that Investopedia article is not to be trusted: It’s the source of a lot of confusion about the S&P inclusion criteria because it claims, erroneously, that a company must have “Four straight quarters of positive as-reported earnings.” (We’ve been over this many times.)
  13. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh, it’s bad. I’m not too close to any fires (fingers crossed) but the air is so polluted that it smells like a campfire inside, visibility is only a few hundred meters, we’ve been warned not to go outside, and I’ve been told to work from home for the next several days. Even New Year’s Eve was...
  14. V

    December 31st 2019 TSLA Share Price Office Pool

    I’m going to declare victory here. The low of $177 did surprise me just a little bit. I should have gone with my instinct and bet the house. ;) $840 next year?
  15. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the FactSet expectations were non-GAAP. So we all (well, almost all) have similar expectations for the third quarter results. Maybe some analysts have a somewhat higher revenue number, but that’s probably because they didn’t realise the leasing percentage...
  16. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They don’t buy at $232, they buy at $230.01. And this happens at a very short time scale.
  17. V

    Owner of a Model 3 SR+

    Owner of a Model 3 SR+
  18. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some more colour on the situation in Australia: They’re not answering their phones or email, and some deliveries are indeed slipping to October. I was promised home delivery (Canberra doesn’t have a store or service center) last Friday, but they stood me up. I found out that they had a breakdown...
  19. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    I picked up my SR+ from Sydney today and drove it back to Canberra. The Good As far as I can tell the car is flawless. I couldn’t find any panel gaps or scratches or anything like that. Maybe that’s because I’m not really a car guy (just a Tesla guy) so I don’t know how to do a thorough...
  20. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    I also had a 10am home delivery scheduled in Canberra. I stayed home for as long as I could but eventually had to go to work. After multiple phone calls and repeated promises to investigate and call me back, I finally found out around 4pm that my car never left Sydney. This is after my Monday...
  21. V

    Post delivery FSD purchase for Model 3 not available online

    Indeed I managed to get in just below the LCT threshold with my sr+. If I were to order the same car now, after the price increase on the car and on FSD, I’d have to pay LCT. I just wanted to correct the claim @djayz made that the price increase on FSD didn’t happen, and explain why it did make...
  22. V

    Post delivery FSD purchase for Model 3 not available online

    Wait, are you telling me the US$1k price rise didn’t happen? When I ordered FSD it was $7.1k, and now it’s $8.5k. So as far as I’m concerned I saved $1.4k by ordering with FSD right away. I didn’t pay any LCT even with FSD, but I guess that’s only because the ACT is slightly less hostile to...
  23. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    Wanna swap? I was supposed to take delivery of a blue sr+ 4430xx in Canberra yesterday. Got pushed to Friday, tentatively. Not sure what’s going on, or where my car is.
  24. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are also plenty of stories of delivery dates being pushed back, so Australia is definitely going through delivery hell right now. Here’s another data point: I was supposed to take delivery today (Monday) but it was delayed at the last minute. Tesla is definitely going to have undelivered...
  25. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    Move to a better bank? We're taking about a standard electronic transfer here, right? Either BPay or a similar solution. You should be able to do this online, unless it exceeds your daily limit. I made an additional deposit the other day. I had to visit a branch, because it was more than my...
  26. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    Just to pile on: I also got a call from Tesla a few days ago, advising me that delivery will be September 23-25 and that I’ll have to get my own plates. Tesla just emailed me, and Pepper Money, with an invoice. It’s not visible online yet though. Edit: sr+, vin 4430xx, build date July 11.
  27. V

    Tesla Model 3 in Australia

    Hi. I haven't posted in this thread before but I'm a first day reservation holder and I ordered an SR+ as soon as I could. I just got off the phone with Pepper Money. They are offering financing at 3.89%, which I think is a pretty good rate. It was an interesting conversation: 1. The person I...
  28. V

    Shall TSLA be added to S&P500? (out of main)

    How did you get to 310M? This is a simple matter of looking up the loss in Q1, and subtracting the profit from Q4 and Q3. In thousands: 702,135-139,483-311,516=251,136. So Tesla needs a profit of more than 251M in Q2 to qualify. (I agree that this whole discussion should be in a different...
  29. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The tables in the link are for consumer vehicles, not cars. (Nowhere does the link mention cars.) To check this, note that Ford is at about 600K/quarter in the link, and they hardly sell cars at all these days so that has to include light trucks and SUVs. Or you can skin this cat another way...
  30. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Published: Mar 9, 2019. @Green Pete: Could you possibly edit your post to reflect that this is old news? In particular the mayor election already happened.
  31. V

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Did Tesla announce that they will report on August 7? I have seen no such announcement, and I would expect results sooner. Most likely on either July 24 or July 31.
  32. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    AlMc covered the actual criteria, but just in case any new readers decided to consult Investopedia: Investopedia is wrong, and many other sources copied Investopedia (with or without attribution) instead of doing their homework. In particular there is absolutely no requirement to be (GAAP)...
  33. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    1. Why bring up the Q1 bond payment when discussing profit/loss? (You're far from the first to do so, although I still don't understand why anyone would think it's relevant. Are you perhaps confusing profit and cashflow?) 2. I believe they guided to a slight loss in Q2. (I could be wrong on...
  34. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A comment on the price in Australia: FSD is priced at A$7100, which is very close to US$5000. And in the US the price recently increased from $5000 to $6000. I’m guessing they priced it like this because Elon said everyone would have a chance to order at the old price, and that the price will...
  35. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There was an extensive discussion of this just a few pages back. Short answer: Yes, FCA-Renault would still have to pay. Slightly longer answer: FCA-Renault would need even more offsets, or whatever the correct term is, than what FCA alone would need, so this is potentially good for Tesla.
  36. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And we're back above 200 in premarket. I don't usually watch the premarket action so closely, but there's been an unusual amount of action lately (most of it negative). Delayed reaction to Elon's leaked email? Everyone waiting for some signal that we bottomed out?
  37. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And we’re down from $255 to $248 in early premarket trading. I guess it’s not unexpected, based on the bad macros.
  38. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    ...for those unable to order by May 1. Like me. I was planning to pay for part of my Model 3 with Tesla stock, but I don’t want to sell any of my stock at this price. I’m really not sure what to do if orders open up in Australia in the next few days, especially if I have a very short window...
  39. V

    Managing the volume of the Investor's Roundtable thread

    I would love the following two features: 1) A way to flag posts as off topic; 2) A way to filter posts by number of off topic votes. Is that feasible to implement with the current forum software?
  40. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah, but that’s not what I mean by off topic posts. I also enjoy those posts, and consider them very much on topic. (At least until we have two main threads again, and then we can argue about which of the two threads those posts belong in.) In fact, I want to find a way to deal with the off topic...
  41. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think what we need is for the moderators to simply delete any and all off topic posts in the stock market thread. If done consistently people will learn. I think the old system failed because the moderators weren’t ruthless enough. (I would volunteer to be such a moderator, if I could do only...
  42. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That’s 8 kWh of primary energy, not electricity. If you want to make it into electricity you’ll get something like 37% of that.
  43. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought the context was that @Dutchie and @sparcs were unhappy about Model 3 production. I completely agree that given the demand situation for S+X it was prudent to cut back, and I don’t see anyone disagreeing with that. (Of course some argue that Tesla should have done a refresh, but that’s...
  44. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think you make many positive contributions around here, but this type of reply is...not helpful. It might even contribute to making TMC an echo chamber. I was also hoping for higher production of Model 3s in Q1. As well as higher deliveries, yes. But I would also have been happy with another...
  45. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What’s going on in premarket? TSLA is down 1.4% to $260.xx. Macros are not great, but other stocks are down a lot less. I thought the news over the weekend was neutral/good.
  46. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why is it so difficult to calculate percentage increase when the increase is large? (I don’t mean to pick on you in particular, it seems that almost everybody does this wrong.) Slightly more on topic: I think that charging both by kWh and by time makes the most sense: If charging costs, for...
  47. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And I prefer posts to be posted in the thread they belong, regardless of what time it is. So please, tell us about Brexit. In the Brexit thread. TIA.
  48. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can you boys and girls take the voting system discussion to a different thread? Pretty please? It spun off from a Brexit discussion that also shouldn’t have been here, so maybe the Brexit thread is a marginally better place for it. (I don’t really care, as long as it’s not here.)
  49. V

    December 31st 2019 TSLA Share Price Office Pool

    I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price gravitates towards $420. I also wouldn't be surprised by $840, or $210, or anything in between. Of course every year the consensus on this board is that a breakout is imminent, and based on the votes so far this year is no different. But I feel much...
  50. V

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The big question for Q4 is: Will a conspiracy of lemurs help or hurt the financials?

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